I would say so. Dukakis would have the 6th year itch going against him. If the GOP didn't gain a majority in either chamber of Congress in 1990, they would in '94. I think as far as the direction Dukakis would take the Democrats, I would imagine he'd be to the left of Clinton, most likely he'd be a more competent, two term version of Carter in TTL. For '96, I'd say you'd have a Wilson, Gingrich, Carrol Campbell, Jim Edgar, or Tommy Thompson vs. Gephardt or Gore (if he's re elected in 1990) race. Clinton would most likely be damaged goods by 96, he's either taken out in 1990, or his skeletons would gradually come out throughout the 90s (Whitewater, Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers, etc...). Bentsen would most likely not run as, IRC, his health started to decline in the mid to late 90s OTL. I would say the GOP narrowly wins it in this TL, but the Dems would have a shot.