WI: Michael Dukakis defeats HW Bush

What would a Dukakis victory in 1988 mean? What effects does this have on crime policy? What effects does this have on Germany's reunification and the end of the Cold War? How does Dukakis handle Kuwait? Who does Dukakis appoint to the Supreme Court?
 
If Dukakis wins in '88 (which was more possible than some on here like to admit), he wins narrowly. For Crime, I doubt anything happens in the first two years. If the GOP makes significant gains in 1990, he might pass some lighter version of the crime bill Bill Clinton signed in 1994. As for the end of the Cold War, Dukakis is probably more likely to gloat about the Wall coming down than Bush was OTL, so I doubt it would end as smoothly as it did. It still ends sometime in the early 90s none the less. For Kuwait, a Dukakis Administration might not send Saddam mixed signals like the Bush administration did OTL, so if Dukakis makes clear from the start that Saddam invading Kuwait would be met with consequences, we might avoid the Gulf War all together. If Iraq still invades Kuwait anyway, I can see it doing to Dukakis what the Iranian Hostage Crisis did to Jimmy Carter. The Early 90s recession is probably handled better than OTL, at least from a political perspective than it was OTL. 1992 would be tough for Dukakis, but I think is chances are better than Bush's were OTL.
 
Dukakis i think would likely be able to win very narrowly in '92 in the scenario laid out by @dw93 - thanks to him taking credit for the end of the Cold War. I think Dukakis still goes in if Iraq invades though, like Bush - his advisors would tell him it's a bad idea to stand still.
 
Dukakis i think would likely be able to win very narrowly in '92 in the scenario laid out by @dw93 - thanks to him taking credit for the end of the Cold War. I think Dukakis still goes in if Iraq invades though, like Bush - his advisors would tell him it's a bad idea to stand still.
If he were to win, 1996 as an open election would be interesting to see.
 
If he were to win, 1996 as an open election would be interesting to see.
I wonder what direction Dukakis would take the Dem party in his 8 years in office (and what direction the GOP takes as well). I think Pete Wilson would run in '96. Powell might run.
Another question: is 1994 the GOP wave it is in OTL?
 
I wonder what direction Dukakis would take the Dem party in his 8 years in office (and what direction the GOP takes as well). I think Pete Wilson would run in '96. Powell might run.
Another question: is 1994 the GOP wave it is in OTL?
I would say so. Dukakis would have the 6th year itch going against him. If the GOP didn't gain a majority in either chamber of Congress in 1990, they would in '94. I think as far as the direction Dukakis would take the Democrats, I would imagine he'd be to the left of Clinton, most likely he'd be a more competent, two term version of Carter in TTL. For '96, I'd say you'd have a Wilson, Gingrich, Carrol Campbell, Jim Edgar, or Tommy Thompson vs. Gephardt or Gore (if he's re elected in 1990) race. Clinton would most likely be damaged goods by 96, he's either taken out in 1990, or his skeletons would gradually come out throughout the 90s (Whitewater, Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers, etc...). Bentsen would most likely not run as, IRC, his health started to decline in the mid to late 90s OTL. I would say the GOP narrowly wins it in this TL, but the Dems would have a shot.
 
A Dukakis Victory (I swung all the states Dukakis lost by less than 10 points):

genusmap.php


Dukakis/Bentsen (Democratic): 280 EV
Bush/Quayle (Republican): 258 EV
 
A Dukakis Victory (I swung all the states Dukakis lost by less than 10 points):

genusmap.php


Dukakis/Bentsen (Democratic): 280 EV
Bush/Quayle (Republican): 258 EV
Do you think a President Dukakis would be able to make the Dakotas more Dem long-term? If they get credit for solving the farm crisis.
 
Mike Dukakis is sort of a friend of mine, I work closely with him on a few things these days. I'm not sure exactly who, but his biggest priority when it comes to the Supreme Court would be appointing an opponent of the death penalty. He knows that he wouldn't have been able to try to do away with it via Congress due to prevailing attitudes at the time, but he would have tried to sneak an ally onto the Supreme Court.

Another thing you could expect is an earlier and better Acela Express service between DC and Boston. Amtrak and passenger rail would have a much stronger ally in the White House than either Bush or Clinton were, and we would see a stronger Amtrak that would be better able to implement it's master plan and wouldn't have to undergo the cuts of the late 90s because of it.
 
I wonder what direction Dukakis would take the Dem party in his 8 years in office (and what direction the GOP takes as well). I think Pete Wilson would run in '96. Powell might run.
Another question: is 1994 the GOP wave it is in OTL?
Depends a bit how Dukakis's Justice department handles redistricting, but even better policies probably aren't enough to prevent it
 
I would say so. Dukakis would have the 6th year itch going against him. If the GOP didn't gain a majority in either chamber of Congress in 1990, they would in '94. I think as far as the direction Dukakis would take the Democrats, I would imagine he'd be to the left of Clinton, most likely he'd be a more competent, two term version of Carter in TTL. For '96, I'd say you'd have a Wilson, Gingrich, Carrol Campbell, Jim Edgar, or Tommy Thompson vs. Gephardt or Gore (if he's re elected in 1990) race. Clinton would most likely be damaged goods by 96, he's either taken out in 1990, or his skeletons would gradually come out throughout the 90s (Whitewater, Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers, etc...). Bentsen would most likely not run as, IRC, his health started to decline in the mid to late 90s OTL. I would say the GOP narrowly wins it in this TL, but the Dems would have a shot.
Maybe after two defeats the GOP would be more willing to moderate and choose Colin Powell.
 
Maybe after two defeats the GOP would be more willing to moderate and choose Colin Powell.
Would Powell want to run though? He was the one Republican that could beat Clinton in '96 and he chose not to run. He could've ran and won in 2000 and he again chose to sit it out.
 
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