WI Mexico wins

Mrstrategy

Banned
What if Mexico win the Mexican war against the US what could they gain?how would it affect its future?
 
What if Mexico win the Mexican war against the US what could they gain?how would it affect its future?
I'm not sure what scenario would lead to Mexico winning the war. How does this happen so I can know what butterflies might result?
A couple things I'm thinking of now are that Mexico wouldn't have to give up the territories it gave up for next to nothing and Texas would remain under Mexican rule. There's no way that that could last long. I don't think that Mexico could hold down Texas for long without another war brewing. I don't know, though. Maybe a puppet government
 
You should read "A Mexican 'Victory' 2.0", that's an excellent TL about Mexico losing less with a POD a few weeks before the war begins.
Also, I have to look into this a bit deeper, but I believe there was a point where the Mexican army could have unraveled the American effort.
 
You should read "A Mexican 'Victory' 2.0", that's an excellent TL about Mexico losing less with a POD a few weeks before the war begins.
Also, I have to look into this a bit deeper, but I believe there was a point where the Mexican army could have unraveled the American effort.
They outnumbered them 3 to 1 at some parts. The Mexicans could very easily anihilate the U.S. Americans is they play it smart. With a good enough leader, they can use the territory to their advantages, too. Hell, a lucky shot on Winfield Scott's ship as he attempts to invade via Veracruz could very easily ruin a good part of the war effort.
 
They still have to beat American Indians like the Comanche which were pillaging the Mexican North, they still have to deal with New Mexico (one of the very few real areas of Mexican settlement north of the Rio Grande) which was economically tied to the US and thought the US could've dealt with the Navajo, Apache, Comanche, etc. which the New Mexicans hated far better than Mexico, they still have to deal with California which soon enough will be flooded with Anglo gold-seekers and already was about half-Anglo in the sparse non-Native American population it had, and also of course Texas.

And then there's still internal instability elsewhere in Mexico like General Mariano Paredes' unrealistic dreams and outright idiocy.

Mexico's sane choice is to sell the Mexican Cession for a much higher price and gain some favourable terms they never had. The Mexican North was basically lost long before the Mexican-American War occurred. If they "win" the Mexican-American War, then they can probably exercise that option. It won't be a popular one, but it'll be the most beneficial one.

All that is why I'm convinced you need an entirely different Mexico for Mexico to gain anything good long-term out of it.

Also, if the US loses the Mexican-American War, then that'll have huge repercussions on the American Civil War since so much of the officer's way of looking at strategy was forged in the Mexican War. It'll definitely affect the outcomes of the battles fought.
 
They still have to beat American Indians like the Comanche which were pillaging the Mexican North, they still have to deal with New Mexico (one of the very few real areas of Mexican settlement north of the Rio Grande) which was economically tied to the US and thought the US could've dealt with the Navajo, Apache, Comanche, etc. which the New Mexicans hated far better than Mexico, they still have to deal with California which soon enough will be flooded with Anglo gold-seekers and already was about half-Anglo in the sparse non-Native American population it had, and also of course Texas.

And then there's still internal instability elsewhere in Mexico like General Mariano Paredes' unrealistic dreams and outright idiocy.

Mexico's sane choice is to sell the Mexican Cession for a much higher price and gain some favourable terms they never had. The Mexican North was basically lost long before the Mexican-American War occurred. If they "win" the Mexican-American War, then they can probably exercise that option. It won't be a popular one, but it'll be the most beneficial one.

All that is why I'm convinced you need an entirely different Mexico for Mexico to gain anything good long-term out of it.

Also, if the US loses the Mexican-American War, then that'll have huge repercussions on the American Civil War since so much of the officer's way of looking at strategy was forged in the Mexican War. It'll definitely affect the outcomes of the battles fought.

What if Mexico just decides that Texas isn't worth going to war over?
 
What if Mexico just decides that Texas isn't worth going to war over?

They lose a fairly wealthy territory. Ditto for New Mexico or Upper California. Tho those were more potential than developed. One has to wonder on Mexicos development had control of the silver deposit near Tuscon, or the Californian gold been retained.
 
What if Mexico just decides that Texas isn't worth going to war over?

That's good for them (less resources wasted, Santa Anna not being captured), but they'll still have to deal with Texas in the long run, especially since Texas claimed a lot of New Mexico. As wel as the New Mexicans, while they disliked the Mexico City governance for their incompetancy, especially hated the (Anglo) Texans, to the point where the Texans were stories to scare children with. And with New Mexico goes basically the rest of the far north of Mexico outside of California and Texas. New Mexico will never join Texas, but they'll still be a resource sink for Mexico as long as the local natives remain unsubdued.

They lose a fairly wealthy territory. Ditto for New Mexico or Upper California. Tho those were more potential than developed. One has to wonder on Mexicos development had control of the silver deposit near Tuscon, or the Californian gold been retained.

Or the Colorado gold, for that matter. Spain might devote a lot more resources to that area if those were known. Since New Mexico was meant as a buffer for the mines of northern Mexico, Spain might settle New Mexico far more and then make another buffer province north of the new mining areas. These might be a more successful than New Mexico (or Tejas) based on the American Indians native to those regions, but as with New Mexico and Texas, is based on Spanish investment in those parts of the world.

Mexico I'm skeptical of the ability to invest in that land unless inherited from Spain, at least if we're talking about the 1821 Mexico we know. Mexico had a huge issue on their frontiers in the north, more than anything else, so I'd expect Spain would be better off doing this, which is yet another reason why you'd need a different Mexico for the Mexicans to benefit the most out of.

Incidentally, one reason why the California gold discovery came so late was the fact that the local Indians had very little clue of what was sitting beneath them. They had no gold jewelry, and used the California gold to the most minimal extent.
 
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