WI Mexico Wins the Mexican-American War

Almost ASB

Because of rampant corruption in the Mexican military, their second-rate gunpowder as stated above, and superior American leadership at all levels of the officer corps in terms of tactical awareness
 
Or make the US's army worse. Make then not learn whatever lessons they learned in 1812 that contributed to the change of the US army to the fighting machine it was in the US-Mex War.
 
Or make the US's army worse. Make then not learn whatever lessons they learned in 1812 that contributed to the change of the US army to the fighting machine it was in the US-Mex War.

American victory (at some level) in the war of 1812 could in a lot of ways be a huge long term kick in the balls for the US military. The US military really changed for the better after that war. Previously, Generals were picked more on favortism, politics and family connections. While that still sort of happens today in all the worlds military forces, major reforms led to more of a meritocracy based officer core.

If this didn't happen, you might have a William Hull type surrender during the Mexican American war at some critical stage along with generally more incompetent officers.
 
In OTL, General Winfield Scott and his staff joined Commodore David Conner on a ship to observe Vera Cruz. As one of those staff officers, George Meade, recorded, they drew fire from the Mexican Fort of San Juan de Ulua. Had those shots hit, Scott and Conner, leaders of the Army and Navy forces present would probably have died. So would all of Scott’s general officers and several members of Scott’s staff – Meade, Robert E Lee, Joseph Johnston, and PGT Beauregard. With this decapitation of US forces, at the very least the Vera Cruz landings could have been delayed and they might not have made it out of the lowlands before fever season crippled the army. Even if they had, without Scott’s abilities as leader and Lee’s abilities scouting, the US forces could very well have lost the war.
 
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