WI Mexico joins Axis

CalBear

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Mexico is crushed like an empty beer can after some local successes (assuming the invasion comes almost instantly). Mexico can advance about 20 miles before it runs into the primary West Coast USMC base, San Diego Naval base, North Island, etc. That is followed in short order by blockades of all major Mexican ports, probably occupation of Vera Cruz (wouldn't exactly be the first time) and possibly the long term annexation of Baja California (the U.S. tried to get Mexico to allow basing there IOTL, Mexico declined).

There would be little to no action against Mexicans in the U.S., for the same reason there was no action except in exceptional circumstances against German American and Japanese Americans in Hawaii A) There are simply FAR too many to intern and the potential damage on the U.S. economy and war effort is too vast to even contemplate. You can not lock up a large percentage of everyone in the States of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California (probably could for Nevada, not much there at the time, but I digress...).
 

Pellaeon

Banned
I agree Mexico would be decisively crushed and the US army would get some experience for the European and pacific campaigns.

The US would probably get Baja California, basing rights in the Yucatan, and Sonora maybe.

It would also probably impose some sort of treaty limiting the size of the Mexican military.

Even if the Mexican government somehow let this happen I suspect after 6 months said government would be overthrown once the Mexican people realize what a mistake their government has made.
 

Kaze

Banned
In its infinite wisdom the war department set out war plans for future wars post 1920 - plan 1 - a European war (it was updated and used to fight Germany in OTL), plan 2 - a pacific war (it was updated and used to fight Japan in OTL), plan 3 - a war against either Canada or Mexico.
A single spy stealing the third plan from the US could really ruin people's day.
 
Obviously a PRI government isn't going to be crazy enough to do this. A conservative government led by Almazan isn't going to be crazy enough to do this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Andreu_Almazán (And anyway the PRI would "count Almazan out" even if he won in 1940, which diehard PAN supporters still claim he did...) A Stalinist regime in Mexico is a fantasy-- but of course after June 22, 1941 it would be fanatically *pro-* US and anti-Axis. The sinarquistas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Synarchist_Union have no chance at all of coming to power. But the one thing I could see as faintly plausible would be some particularly extreme sinarquista like Abascal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvador_Abascal leading a raid on the US in the hope of provoking a US-Mexican conflict. But I don't think even Abascal would be crazy enough to try this, and if he did, he would be an utter failure, since his forces would be instantly crushed, and nobody would think the Mexican government was behind what he did.
 
Thats a tar baby I myself would prefer to avoid.

Not saying it would have been a good idea. But think of the situation: Mexico declared war on the USA. And possibly there have been a few border crossings in California or Texas. That might change the public opinion's stance at the time, even if once things cool down, the idea might be judged not that good in hindsight.
 
How long will the Mexicans have been preparing for the war? Do they foresee a quick campaign? Do they only need to kick in the door and the whole house will collapse?
 

Cook

Banned
For whatever reason that possessed the Mexican president, he joins Axis. After Pearl Harbor, Mexico declares war on the US and starts to invade California.

It is worth noting that Mexico was one of the principal arms suppliers of Republican Spain during the Civil War. You would need to have a point of departure substantially further back than just having Manuel Camacho wake up on morning and decide to do a complete ideological about turn and commit his regime to national suicide.
You would have to somehow push Mexico into Fascism sometime in the mid-1930s; at which point Señor Roosevelt would, like Señor Wilson before him, intervene.
 
Trivia Note on US/VS Axis in Mexico: Some folks are aware the singer & actor Eddie Albert won a Bronze Star with a Combat V in the battle on Betio Island (Tarawa). More obscure is he worked for US military intelligence In Mexico prewar. Different versions abound; Army Intelligence, Navy Intelligence, was photographing German submarines, was identifying German agents. I'll leave his actual role to the professional historians. Point is the US was active in espionage and other anti Axis activities i Mexico at the time.
 
You would have to somehow push Mexico into Fascism sometime in the mid-1930s; at which point Señor Roosevelt would, like Señor Wilson before him, intervene.

Now say in 1938 after the US Oil Companies got Nationalized, there was a bloodless Coup with a Mexican Fascist takeover, FDR would be pleased, as that solves the problem a far left regime with one that would possibly be more business friendly, and therefor, more US Friendly.

Could Almazan act like Franco without US intervention?

sure, but Almazan wasn't a Fascist, just Conservative.

OTL, Mexico had barter deals with Germany and Italy, US didn't do sabre rattling over that.

US had fairly decent relations with Italy before the followed the Axis into suicide by the DoW after PH
 
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Mexico gets squashed as soon as the USA can get forces to the border. The USN blockades Mexican ports as needed. I can see the USA taking Baja California, pretty empty, nice base potential at Cabo San Lucas, and removes any potential threat to San Diego. Maybe there is some are south of the current border that is annexed basically as a buffer zone against further irritation. US oil companies get their property back. Mexican "in kind" reparations result in guacamole and tortilla chips being standard mess hall fare in US training camps.
 
More interesting question - what does the US do at the point that Mexico says it's joining the Axis?

It's a welcome chance. Others have said it's good because it's a live-fire large-scale test. But there's more; the public opinion is smarting for a strike back, after Pearl. But it will take months before the US forces are really ready to bring the fight to the big and distant enemies. OTOH, this is a small and close enemy. Even the small US standing army has a chance to do something almost straight away, let alone the USMC and the USN. I wouldn't be surprised if, apart from border skirmishes and the obvious blockade of Mexican ports, there's a landing at some key location.

The border skirmishes will be, in part, dictated by the Mexican army's reaction to the insane order. If they hurry to depose the madman, then the skirmishes will be decided and waged by the US forces. If they try to implement the order, then at least some of the clashes will depend on where the Mexicans think they can at least make a show of force. I guess that state National Guard units in the border states will be mobilized too if the Mexicans come in, but I don't know about their readiness levels.
 
Ah, thanks, but I should have said that I was thinking about what would happen if Mexico had said that it was joining the Axis before Pearl Harbour had happened.
 
Let's even say that there *is* a successful right-wing coup against Cardenas (which I think very unlikely). Why in the world would the regime established by such a coup want to join the Axis when this will obviously bring about swift military action from the US, and the Axis powers can obviously do nothing to help Mexico? The right-wing authoritarian regimes in the Caribbean area--Trujillo, Somoza, Batista (though by the 1940's he was less authoritarian and right-wing than he used to be)--were all strongly *pro-*US during World War II. And even the most Axis-friendly regimes in Latin America, like Peron's Argentina (which could of course afford to be relatively independent of US foreign policy only because it was far away) never considered doing any such thing.

Before anyone beings up the Cedillo rebellion, I'll just point out that (a) it had very little chance of success, and (b) it was *not* fascist nor was it backed by the fascist powers of Europe:

(1) "Owing to his ideological conflict with Cardenas, Cedillo was approached by many right-wing groups, including the fascist organization known as the 'gold shirts.' However, such links have been exaggerated by official and left-wing versions of the Cedillo rebellion, who have tried to portray him as an ally of the foreign oil companies whose Mexican holdings were expropriated during the zenith of Cardenas's Revolutionary nationalist measures in March 1938. While the oil companies undoubtedly were pleased by any efforts to overthrow Cardenas, the aging, increasingly ill, and militarily weak Cedillo never enjoyed any concrete support from Washington, the oil companies, or even the fascist governments in Europe, who saw little to be gained from such an adventure. Cedillo's rebellion was virtually stillborn. The federal government had made certain that it possessed all the necessary elements to defeat the caudillo from Palomas before forcing Cedillo to rebel by demanding that he leave his base in the Valle del Maiz. When he was forced to take up arms in 1938, it was basically a suicidal gesture in defense of his personal honor and a refusal to recognize that his days as the caudillo of San Luis Potosi and his local project in the Valle del Mali were a thing of the past. " *Concise Encyclopedia of Mexico* (article "Cedillo, Saturnino")
https://books.google.com/books?id=VeI4CQAAQBAJ&pg=PA96

(2) "At that time, German government representatives were hoping for a trade expansion with the German state, not a civil war that might only benefit U.S. economic interests. Later, after Cardenas's destruction of the Cedillo movement, the German Foreign Ministry conducted an internal investigation to determine whether any German ministry had supported the warlord from San Luis Potosi. The investigation failed to identify any German involvement. Moreover, the Cardenas administration itself assured the German legation that continued public accusations of German involvement in the Cedillo uprising were really part of a leftist anti-fascist propaganda campaign. Mexican Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Ramon Beteta apologized to German Minister Rudt, stating "that the isolated smear campaign against Germany is in no way representative of the position of the Mexican government and people."

"Repeatedly, the existing literature has identified Cedillo's German-born chief of staff, Colonel von Merck, as a likely conduit for German influence. The sources in German and Mexican archives, however, show that von Merck established contact with Berlin only *after* the failed rebellion. Ina letter written by Colonel von Merck himself to a supporter in the United States, Cedillo's chief of staff displays the very domestic conservative nature of the Cedilla rebellion. Von Merk wrote to a friend in San Antonio:

"'what we want is that communism in Mexico, which the government unconsciously supports and which is gaining importance in Mexico, ceases to exist. I believe in nothing absolute, neither the Nazis not the Fascists who want to bring their doctrines to Mexico, which are perhaps good for Germany and Italy, but not for Mexico. We don't need to import anything to Mexico, not from Russia, Germany or from Italy, not from any other nations; we want a national nationalism, a Mexican one, nothing exotic. The politics of Europe is of no interest to me, only Mexico.'

"Once again, the strong domestic orientation of Cedillismo was confirmed. In addition, the U.S. and British governments refused to support Cedilla in any form. In April 1938, the U.S. embassy refused to see on Merck, in order to avoid any appearance of complicity. In September of 1938, Cedillo's sister tried to establish contact with the British Ambassador in Washington 'to give him the true facts regarding the situation in the state of Sari Luis Potosi.' She too was rejected..." Friedrich E. Schuler, *Mexico Between Hitler and Roosevelt,* p. 135. https://books.google.com/books?id=q4ZiwTZpWoYC&pg=PA135

Of course, even if Cedillo *did* come to power (which is extremely unlikely), even if he had been backed by the fascist governments of Europe (which he wasn't) and even if he had lived past 1939 (which he didn't), he wouldn't be crazy enough to join the Axis or go to war with the US. But since it was claimed earlier in this thread that a right-wing coup against Cardenas was possible and would have been welcomed by FDR, I just wanted to give some evidence that such a coup was very unlikely, and that in fact FDR gave no support to the closest thing (which wasn't very close) to a plausibly successful attempt at one.
 
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