WI: Mesoamerica and Andes conquered by 2 different European powers

French and Spain were fighting during the colonization period, but they did it in Italy and in northern France rather than in the New World. Francis Ist had the Pope interpreting Tordesillas as applying only to territories already discovered. So, it made sense to push in uncharted northern America rather than going for the gauntlet with the Spanish in Middle and South America. If Clement VIII had refused to amend Tordesillas, Francis could have discarded the all thing and went to the gold/silver source directly. But, as in his other ambitions, he needed to win in Italy first. If I still lose Pavia in 1525, Charles V would compel him to stay out of America.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
A potential sketch of alternate events along these lines:

-Spain after Columbus' first return voyage refuses to seek or accept papal arbitration about dividing global spheres of influence with Portugal

-In retaliation, Portugal competes more in America, at least after the discovery of Brazil, the focus of Portuguese exploration around Brazil moves more to the north and west faster

-Ultimately, Spain gets to all the greater Antilles, Mexico and Panama first. Portugal gets to Aruba, Curacao and the northern coast of OTL Colombia and Venezuela first

-In the 1500s a Portuguese rather than Spanish expedition conquers the Inca.

-even if struggling from time to time makes Panama and northern Colombia trade hands a couple times, the long-term trend is Portugal dominates South America.

-The earliest prime focus of Portuguese South America is some sugar plantations and prospecting operations in Venezuela and Colombia, and then conquered Peru.

-Before the 1500s are out, sugar planting in northeast Brazil becomes another Portuguese focus on the continent. A Portuguese explorer follows the Amazon downriver from Peru, like OTL's Orellana.

-By 1600 Portuguese mapping and claiming of South America (but not actual occupation/settlement) is fairly complete. The TL's flipping of Peruvian wealth out of Spain's hands and into Portugal's has knock on effects for their economies and power, diminishing Spain a bit and boosting Portugal. Even if there is an Iberian Union, the Spanish North America, Portuguese South America divide persists over the long-term.

-Portugal continues to do everything it did in Africa, the Indian Ocean and Far East in OTL.

-With Portuguese forts and trading posts in Africa, the use of African slaves for the mines of Peru is greater than OTL (although, even under Spain, this was a significant thing). Long-term there are more Afro-Peruvians than OTL.

-By the early 1600s the Dutch and English begin to poach on Portuguese American territory. In this ATL, with the Portuguese more extended throughout South America, and having Peru as their #1 point to defend, lose northeastern Brazil and the lower Amazon to the Dutch permanently. Northern Brazil ends up as an enlarged version of the Guianas, with Netherlands, Britain and France running sugar colonies. Portugal retains Venezuela-Colombia as part of the forward defense of Peru.

-Nevertheless, the Dutch competition in particular motivates increased Portuguese efforts to settle and control whatever it can of South America.

-In the 1700s massive Portuguese migration goes all over their South American colonies. The frontier spreads southward to incorporate the southern cone, Chile, Argentina and southern Brazil.

-Conceivably, except for the Mega-Guiana/Amazonas/Recife area, the rest of South America becomes independent as a single enormous and diversely endowed empire.

-things get even more different as time goes on.
 
A potential sketch of alternate events along these lines:

-Spain after Columbus' first return voyage refuses to seek or accept papal arbitration about dividing global spheres of influence with Portugal

-In retaliation, Portugal competes more in America, at least after the discovery of Brazil, the focus of Portuguese exploration around Brazil moves more to the north and west faster

-Ultimately, Spain gets to all the greater Antilles, Mexico and Panama first. Portugal gets to Aruba, Curacao and the northern coast of OTL Colombia and Venezuela first

-In the 1500s a Portuguese rather than Spanish expedition conquers the Inca.

-even if struggling from time to time makes Panama and northern Colombia trade hands a couple times, the long-term trend is Portugal dominates South America.

-The earliest prime focus of Portuguese South America is some sugar plantations and prospecting operations in Venezuela and Colombia, and then conquered Peru.

-Before the 1500s are out, sugar planting in northeast Brazil becomes another Portuguese focus on the continent. A Portuguese explorer follows the Amazon downriver from Peru, like OTL's Orellana.

-By 1600 Portuguese mapping and claiming of South America (but not actual occupation/settlement) is fairly complete. The TL's flipping of Peruvian wealth out of Spain's hands and into Portugal's has knock on effects for their economies and power, diminishing Spain a bit and boosting Portugal. Even if there is an Iberian Union, the Spanish North America, Portuguese South America divide persists over the long-term.

-Portugal continues to do everything it did in Africa, the Indian Ocean and Far East in OTL.

-With Portuguese forts and trading posts in Africa, the use of African slaves for the mines of Peru is greater than OTL (although, even under Spain, this was a significant thing). Long-term there are more Afro-Peruvians than OTL.

-By the early 1600s the Dutch and English begin to poach on Portuguese American territory. In this ATL, with the Portuguese more extended throughout South America, and having Peru as their #1 point to defend, lose northeastern Brazil and the lower Amazon to the Dutch permanently. Northern Brazil ends up as an enlarged version of the Guianas, with Netherlands, Britain and France running sugar colonies. Portugal retains Venezuela-Colombia as part of the forward defense of Peru.

-Nevertheless, the Dutch competition in particular motivates increased Portuguese efforts to settle and control whatever it can of South America.

-In the 1700s massive Portuguese migration goes all over their South American colonies. The frontier spreads southward to incorporate the southern cone, Chile, Argentina and southern Brazil.

-Conceivably, except for the Mega-Guiana/Amazonas/Recife area, the rest of South America becomes independent as a single enormous and diversely endowed empire.

-things get even more different as time goes on.
Thinking about it I would have rather a country like the Netherlands, France or another one that didn´t colonize much IOTL take part in this rather than Portugal.
 
The biggest problem is logistical. The Andes and the Amazon mean that they only way to reach Peru is by sea, which means you probably need colonies in Central America (most likely Panama, which is where Pizarro was originally based) to even get there. Crossing South America from the Atlantic side is essentially impossible, and the Southern Pacific is quite dangerous (and requires sailing past a long stretch of hostile desert, which would cause most would-be conquistadors to give up).

Panama itself, in addition to being disease-ridden fairly quickly, isn't particularly defensible or rich enough to develop as an independent colony in opposition to whoever controls Mexico. Which makes it hard to imagine it surviving long enough to become a feasible base for the conquest and exploitation of Peru.
 
The biggest problem is logistical. The Andes and the Amazon mean that they only way to reach Peru is by sea, which means you probably need colonies in Central America (most likely Panama, which is where Pizarro was originally based) to even get there. Crossing South America from the Atlantic side is essentially impossible, and the Southern Pacific is quite dangerous (and requires sailing past a long stretch of hostile desert, which would cause most would-be conquistadors to give up).

Panama itself, in addition to being disease-ridden fairly quickly, isn't particularly defensible or rich enough to develop as an independent colony in opposition to whoever controls Mexico. Which makes it hard to imagine it surviving long enough to become a feasible base for the conquest and exploitation of Peru.
Going through Colombia? I mean you have bases in Colombia and La Plata and you conquer and control the place through those.
 
Going through Colombia? I mean you have bases in Colombia and La Plata and you conquer and control the place through those.
You still have some pretty scary mountains in the way. There's a reason the Spanish preferred to ship their Peruvian silver by ship to Panama.
 
You still have some pretty scary mountains in the way. There's a reason the Spanish preferred to ship their Peruvian silver by ship to Panama.
I meant like going through Columbia Atlantic and Pacific coast, I mean is not the same but is still an alternative, still wouldn´t a route for the silver be Argentina through la Plata?
 
I meant like going through Columbia Atlantic and Pacific coast, I mean is not the same but is still an alternative, still wouldn´t a route for the silver be Argentina through la Plata?
If you mean the parts of Colombia that are basically right next to Panama, sure, that's not too different from Panama (but still runs into the problem that whoever controls Mexico has the wealth and population to swoop in and kick you out fairly easily).

Argentina, not so much: you're still stuck on the wrong side of the Andes from the Inca heartland, which you need to conquer before you can really exploit the silver..
 
If you mean the parts of Colombia that are basically right next to Panama, sure, that's not too different from Panama (but still runs into the problem that whoever controls Mexico has the wealth and population to swoop in and kick you out fairly easily).

Argentina, not so much: you're still stuck on the wrong side of the Andes from the Inca heartland, which you need to conquer before you can really exploit the silver..
But the conquest doesnt require much given what Spain needed, plus Panama and Costa Rica are not exactly the best place to wage war over, so I think it would be quite natural a border would be created there out of geographic barriers, so this second country conquers the Inca, expands into la Plata and Colombia. Plus land trade routes existed and were quite used.
 
But the conquest doesnt require much given what Spain needed, plus Panama and Costa Rica are not exactly the best place to wage war over, so I think it would be quite natural a border would be created there out of geographic barriers, so this second country conquers the Inca, expands into la Plata and Colombia. Plus land trade routes existed and were quite used.
The conquest required a solid base to start from; remember that Pizarro made several failed expeditions to Peru before the conquest, and that he was following in the footsteps of other explorers in the region. And once the initial victory was won (which is far from guaranteed ITTL; if he hadn't landed exactly where and when he did, it would likely have taken significantly longer), he received plentiful supplies and reinforcements from Panama to solidify his conquest and face down a major native rebellion (which came quite close to retaking Cuzco). He couldn't have done that without a decade-old major settlement in Panama, and a fairly established Spanish presence in the New World as a whole. 250 conquistadors (roughly what Pizarro had as his initial force during the final invasion of Peru) is a fairly substantial expedition by colonial standards, and that's without the large number that came shortly afterwards as reinforcements.

As for the controllers of Mexico hitting Panama/Colombia: an extended campaign in Panama and Costa Rica might be a problem, but an initial expedition to expel whatever other country had tried to colonize Panama right after the landing would be fairly straightforward (look at the fate of the French at Fort Caroline in Florida). And whoever controlled Mexico absolutely would do that; a foreign base in Panama is a direct threat.

Land trade routes existed, but they were grossly inadequate for the level of traffic they would need. Sea travel is vastly cheaper and more efficient basically up until the invention of the railroad. That's also true while you're exploring; a ship can carry extra provisions much more easily than a land expedition, and is also more likely to be able to make it back home if the expedition runs into e.g. hostile natives.
 
The conquest required a solid base to start from; remember that Pizarro made several failed expeditions to Peru before the conquest, and that he was following in the footsteps of other explorers in the region. And once the initial victory was won (which is far from guaranteed ITTL; if he hadn't landed exactly where and when he did, it would likely have taken significantly longer), he received plentiful supplies and reinforcements from Panama to solidify his conquest and face down a major native rebellion (which came quite close to retaking Cuzco). He couldn't have done that without a decade-old major settlement in Panama, and a fairly established Spanish presence in the New World as a whole. 250 conquistadors (roughly what Pizarro had as his initial force during the final invasion of Peru) is a fairly substantial expedition by colonial standards, and that's without the large number that came shortly afterwards as reinforcements.

As for the controllers of Mexico hitting Panama/Colombia: an extended campaign in Panama and Costa Rica might be a problem, but an initial expedition to expel whatever other country had tried to colonize Panama right after the landing would be fairly straightforward (look at the fate of the French at Fort Caroline in Florida). And whoever controlled Mexico absolutely would do that; a foreign base in Panama is a direct threat.

Land trade routes existed, but they were grossly inadequate for the level of traffic they would need. Sea travel is vastly cheaper and more efficient basically up until the invention of the railroad. That's also true while you're exploring; a ship can carry extra provisions much more easily than a land expedition, and is also more likely to be able to make it back home if the expedition runs into e.g. hostile natives.
But a early base in Colombia, Venezuela and Panama wouldn´t exactly be hard, actually it would be easy to have IMO.

But if we pose that Spain has not the ability to do that for whatever reason(they are emboiled into Mexico or Maya territories etc.), you already have your base and foundation right there. Fort Caroline was established 4 decades later and without any real powerbase around, this second country would have also Colombia and Venezuela by this time.

It´s true, but is far from preventing any country from taking the Incas while Spain has Mexico. Given like we have tons of caveats to it.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Thinking about it I would have rather a country like the Netherlands, France or another one that didn´t colonize much IOTL take part in this rather than Portugal.

Fair enough. I was just riffing on using this as a way to have a *mostly* united South America, especially because Spanish America splintered while Brazil did not.

Others doing Peru is a fine option. In OTL's late 1500s early 1600s, the Dutch did have a vision of an alliance with the Andean natives of Chile, romanticizing them as "fellow victims of, and valiant resisters to, Spanish oppression"

Especially if you give the the Europeans more time to conquer Peru, I could imagine someone from another European power *eventually* colonizing Peru.

For example, what if Pizarro fails, and the Inca can withstand the next couple expeditions or so. But at the same time they acquire a taste for European weapons and trade goods. Sure this could leave you with perennial Incan independence, there have been timelines on that, but it is not guaranteed. Over time the losses from smallpox would mount, there could be secondary or tertiary knock-ons that are bad for stability in the near to medium term, and the merchants and mercenaries of the Inca's favored trading partners could eventually mount a coup or establish a protectorate over Peru in the late 1500s, or in the 1600s sometime. This could be the Dutch or French or British. I'd love to see the Swiss or Austrians do it, simply because of the similarities between architecture in the Alps and Andes and the thought of yodeling alpaca shepherds, but without more PoDs I don't see them having a shot at getting there, much less taking over.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
bump - I'd be interested in any more ideas, or even hearing of plans for other threads based on this.
 
There would be serious economic repercussions as Peru is second only to Mexico, or visa versa, when it comes to precious metal mining. New World Silver fueled Spanish expansion and wars back in Europe and another European country control the Peru mines would be quite the boon.
 
Top