WI: Merina Madagascar survives

[Deleted member 160141]

Was it possible for the Merina kingdom of Madagascar to avoid getting gobbled up by the French? If so, could it pull a Meiji or a Chulalongkorn?

What if Ranavalona I had maintained connections with Britain to counterbalance France? What if the French never established outposts on the island at all?​

What are the effects on modern Madagascar? Is the nation Christianized regardless of French rule, or does it do what Japan did with its native animist tradition and go full National Shinto? What would such a religion look like and what kind of ideology would it support?
How long does the nation keep its autocratic feudal monarchy? How does Madagascar interact with mainland Africa?

And most importantly of all, do the Madagascar movies still get made, and what are they like?


Bonus round: Ethiopian feudal monarchy survives as well.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

The Merina would need foreign support to effectively control the coastal states on the island. Near the end of their reign, their military was extremely overextended.

I think your best bet is a protectorate with British support. I don't think full independence is possible since the island as a whole isn't truly unified. This would lead to European intervention at some point.

 

[DocJamore]

An independent Madagascar would be far closer to Siam's situation of playing off Europeans rivalries against each other rather than Japan's becoming a rival in itself. Before that though, Merina will need European technology to consolidate and subjugate the whole island under their control. After that, exactly how plausible is it that an Imperial Madagascar would or could expand? They're never taking the mainland. Taking the Comoros will piss off the French. Taking the Mascarene Islands will piss off the French AND the British.

Difficult to say what the religion would be. There was interest in Protestantism as a way of improving relations with Europe without inviting the papacy to infringe on state power. Of course, there were similar considerations in parts of Asia at the time as well, and they still didn't convert. Madagascar might end up being a melting pot of faiths.

 

[Vinization]

Having king Radama I not be an alcoholic and reign until the 1850s/60s could be an excellent POD, especially since it butterflies the disastrous rule of Ranavalona I.

 

[SIngemeister]

Having king Radama I not be an alcoholic and reign until the 1850s/60s could be an excellent POD, especially since it butterflies the disastrous rule of Ranavalona I.

That seems like the best option. Maybe one of those European nobles manages to cause some ridiculous and horrible alcohol-based embarrassment that causes Radical adam to swear off the booze?

 

[Deleted member 160141]

That seems like the best option. Maybe one of those European nobles manages to cause some ridiculous and horrible alcohol-based embarrassment that causes Radical adam to swear off the booze?

Radical Adam? Sounds like the best case of autocorrupt I've ever seen.