WI: Meiji Madagascar

Sycamore

Banned
Inspired to create this thread after reading about Vy Vato Sakelika, the nationalist secret society formed in Madagascar in 1913 by Hova Merina elites to inspire rebellion against French colonial rule on the island.

The colonization of the Kingdom of Madagascar in 1896 prompted a popular uprising against the French, termed the Menalamba rebellion. Queen Ranavalona III, her husband and Prime Minister, Rainilaiarivony, and a core group of Hova courtiers were held responsible. Rainandriamampandry (the mayor of Toamasina) and several others were executed by firing squad, while the queen and prime minister were exiled. Members of the Protestant Hova elite, who had collectively formed the country's ruling class, were stripped of their privileges and property. Several other similar uprisings broke out in other parts of the island during the first decade of colonial rule.

The execution and persecution of the Hova elite united this network of powerful Protestant Merina families against the colonial authorities. Protestant Minister Ravelojaona was among the first to publish editorials openly promoting the nationalist ideal; among his earliest and most influential pieces were those published under a series he entitled "Japan and the Japanese" that lauded the successful blending of tradition and modernity in the Meiji period. Shortly after these pieces were published, in July 1913 seven students at the medical school in Antananarivo founded Madagascar's first nationalist organization, the secret society Vy Vato Sakelika (VVS, "Iron, Stone, Network").

The group soon attracted diverse and large membership among the professional class, including Merina office workers, shop employees and primary school teachers. In this way, members of the former Hova elite formed the core membership of the VVS in its early period. Although the group occasionally presented itself as a cultural organization, it used the national press to call on the populace to sacrifice themselves for the freedom and dignity of the tanindrazana (land of their ancestors).

As France entered World War I, these nationalist calls were seen as an affront that could not be tolerated. The French policy toward the VVS hardened in 1915 following a rumor of conspiracy against the state. Several members were arrested and sentenced to forced labor; they were eventually released in 1918[5] and pardoned in 1922. The colonial authorities cracked down on VVS members. Some were sent to prison on Nosy Lava, a small island off the southwest coast; others were dismissed from government positions or sentenced to hard labor.

VVS was outlawed in early 1916 and a newspaper owned by VVS sympathizers was shut down. This harsh response forced into the open the debate about nationalism and equal rights for Malagasy people, leading to the flourishing of a nationalist movement across the island that cut across ethnic, religious and national divides, and forcing the French authorities to provide the Malagasy with their first representative voice in government. Many of these united behind Jean Ralaimongo, a former VVS leader who spearheaded the push for equal rights for Malagasy people, and who wanted Madagascar to become a French département and therefore part of France.

So, WI the VVS or its successors had succeeded in liberating Madagascar from the French (probably through open revolt, or through foreign assistance), restored practical imperial rule to Madagacar in 1868 by enthroning a member of the exiled divine Merina Imperial family, and had subsequently set about emulating the growth and modernisation of Meiji Japan as the movement's original founders proposed? How early could they hope to do this? And just how powerful could the Imperial Kingdom of Madagascar conceivably become, economically and/or militarily- powerful enough to become a regional power, gain significance on the world stage, and have a major impact on the way things play out in WW2?
 
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Interesting idea, but I doubt that we'll see a Meiji Madagascar. Rather than pulling a "Meiji", it might pull a "Chulalongkorn" or a "Menelik"-- in other words, becoming a state that is kept independent not due to any extraordinary military or economic prowess but for its value as a buffer and/or a minor ally, like Thailand or Ethiopia.
Tokugawa Japan had several advantages that aided the Meiji modernization: it was already heavily urbanized (I remember reading that Edo/Tokyo was one of the world's largest cities even then), meaning that a large population of potential factory workers already existed, and could be augmented by migrations from rural areas. In military technology, the shoguns made sure to stay not too far behind Europe, meaning that even if the Shogunate weren't even close to being as strong as Imperial Japan would be, they were still no joke.
The Meiji Restoration, in other words, was successful not just because it brought in new technology, but used the technology that Japan already had and made it larger in scale and more widespread.
The Malagasy Kingdom tried for modernization even before being annexed, but it was far behind Tokugawa Japan. The chances of rapid industrialization therefore seem slim.
It could try to catch up, but even there Madagascar could end up going the way of the Egyptian Khedivate-- try and go fast, end up running out of money, go bankrupt, foreign powers close in.
And then, there's the fact that there's no easy colonies where Madagascar is: Taiwan could be ripped out of a decaying Qing China, and Korea is within reach of Japan as well. The East African coast, on the other hand, is going to be swarmed with Europeans by the 1880s and 1890s. With no colonies, Madagascar's going to have to depend on the resources within its borders to start industrialization and then buy from others what it can't produce.
By the time WWII rolls around, Madagascar might play a minor role helping out the Allies in Italian Somalia or something.
 

Sycamore

Banned
Interesting idea, but I doubt that we'll see a Meiji Madagascar. Rather than pulling a "Meiji", it might pull a "Chulalongkorn" or a "Menelik"-- in other words, becoming a state that is kept independent not due to any extraordinary military or economic prowess but for its value as a buffer and/or a minor ally, like Thailand or Ethiopia.
Tokugawa Japan had several advantages that aided the Meiji modernization: it was already heavily urbanized (I remember reading that Edo/Tokyo was one of the world's largest cities even then), meaning that a large population of potential factory workers already existed, and could be augmented by migrations from rural areas. In military technology, the shoguns made sure to stay not too far behind Europe, meaning that even if the Shogunate weren't even close to being as strong as Imperial Japan would be, they were still no joke.
The Meiji Restoration, in other words, was successful not just because it brought in new technology, but used the technology that Japan already had and made it larger in scale and more widespread.
The Malagasy Kingdom tried for modernization even before being annexed, but it was far behind Tokugawa Japan. The chances of rapid industrialization therefore seem slim.
It could try to catch up, but even there Madagascar could end up going the way of the Egyptian Khedivate-- try and go fast, end up running out of money, go bankrupt, foreign powers close in.
And then, there's the fact that there's no easy colonies where Madagascar is: Taiwan could be ripped out of a decaying Qing China, and Korea is within reach of Japan as well. The East African coast, on the other hand, is going to be swarmed with Europeans by the 1880s and 1890s. With no colonies, Madagascar's going to have to depend on the resources within its borders to start industrialization and then buy from others what it can't produce.
By the time WWII rolls around, Madagascar might play a minor role helping out the Allies in Italian Somalia or something.

The thing is, ITTL, the POD here is after the French colonization of Madagascar, meaning that the French colonialists have already increased urbanisation, started up the process of basic industrialisation and brought the military technology of the island up to speed. There are a few easy colonies where Madagascar is- the French had increased its territory themselves by establishing the Colony of Madagascar and Dependencies, with those attached dependencies including Reunion, The Comoros, and the French Southern and Antarctic Lands. If they turn their attention north, towards the Arab Peninsula, then there are plenty of easy pickings to be had, left over from the recent collapse of the Ottoman Empire- and those easy pickings would definitely be beneficial to an industrial effort.

And even if they have to depend on the resources within their own borders to start industrialisation, Madagascar's also one of the only African nations which actually has the resources to do it- it has one of the world's largest reserves of ilmenite (titanium ore), as well as important reserves of chromite, coal, iron, cobalt, copper, nickel, natural gas and oil. Not to mention its possession of the largest, best-quality sapphire deposits in the world, which were only discovered twenty years ago IOTL. Combined with its massive agricultural output, there isn't really much stuff that Madagascar would need to buy from others.
 

Sycamore

Banned
Bumping. Any takers? BTW, "Meiji" Madagascar for TTL is a direct reference to the restoration of the Imperial Merina Kingdom of Madagascar, and the return of an Empress or Emperor of the royal lineage to power ITTL, which would be directly analogous to the Meiji Restoration in Japan. Technically, I guess it'd be the name of whoever gets placed on the throne in Madagascar, rather than "Meiji"; but even so, there's clearly potential for the members of the Hova oligarchy most responsible for bringing about the Restoration to follow the lead of the Japanese, and establish their own equivalents to the Zaibatsu conglomerates to form the heart of economic and industrial activity within Imperial Madagascar.
 
Well, the issue you have here is the French (god, oh many times did that happen).

Before they arrived, they had overwhelming firepower and after they wiped any meaningful potential opposition WHILE having overwhelming fire power AND rebuilding the whole island. They redid the ports, the roads... and killed anyone who would oppose them too fiercely.

Your problem is that you didn't have any commander in Madagascar, you had Gallieni and Lyautey and those two may be the best colonial administrator France ever had. If there is too much opposition, they'll burn half the island while using the rest of the funds to build twice as many hospitals in the other half to make sure the population sticks with them
 

Sycamore

Banned
Well, the issue you have here is the French (god, oh many times did that happen).

Before they arrived, they had overwhelming firepower and after they wiped any meaningful potential opposition WHILE having overwhelming fire power AND rebuilding the whole island. They redid the ports, the roads... and killed anyone who would oppose them too fiercely.

Your problem is that you didn't have any commander in Madagascar, you had Gallieni and Lyautey and those two may be the best colonial administrator France ever had. If there is too much opposition, they'll burn half the island while using the rest of the funds to build twice as many hospitals in the other half to make sure the population sticks with them

Lyautey was long gone by this stage, as was Gallieni. The proposed POD would be after the VVS Malagasy nationalist group was founded, after July 1913; and would the French have the time, funding or resources to deal with a full-scale separatist, restorationist uprising on Madagascar if it breaks out in the middle of WWI? If Jean Ralaimongo, along the majority of the other 40,000 Malagasy soldiers who were encouraged to fight for the French in WWI in the futile hope that Madagascar could become an overseas department of France and that their people could be naturalized as French citizens, had fought to overthrow the French colonial authorities for the freedom and dignity of the land of their ancestors instead?

What kind of impact could this have had on the East Africa Campaign of WW1- might the Germans have supported Madagascar, and the restored Merina Kingdom, as a natural ally, and swiftly acknowledge the legitimacy of the new regime? How much more costly would the war be for the Entente, due to the loss of Madagascar and the need to deal with the increasing unrest across their respective colonies engendered by it- enough to tip the scales? Might the Makonde Uprising in 1917 (which succeeded in defeating the colonial regime IOTL, only to be thwarted by 10,000–15,000 Ngoni mercenaries, hired on the with promises of loot, women and children, who subsequently quashed the rebellion through terrorism and slavery) have been successful ITTL as well? And if it were, then you've got Mozambique to serve as your Taiwan/Korea analogue.
 
Although I'd like to see it, I doubt it would be possible. Just because you make someone an emperor doesn't mean the country automatically industrialises.
 

Sycamore

Banned
Although I'd like to see it, I doubt it would be possible. Just because you make someone an emperor doesn't mean the country automatically industrialises.

Of course not. But they already had a plan to industrialize in the same manner as Meiji-era Japan already had- they wouldn't be breaking new ground, but attempting to follow Japan's lead. And of course, every country ended up automatically industrialising anyway, as the world entered the modern era- they just did it at a different pace. IMHO, TTL's Madagascar could well be more powerful than OTL's Thailand by the time you get to (what would have been IOTL) WW2.
 
Of course not. But they already had a plan to industrialize in the same manner as Meiji-era Japan already had- they wouldn't be breaking new ground, but attempting to follow Japan's lead. And of course, every country ended up automatically industrialising anyway, as the world entered the modern era- they just did it at a different pace. IMHO, TTL's Madagascar could well be more powerful than OTL's Thailand by the time you get to (what would have been IOTL) WW2.

It'll be hard and not exactly plausible, but I'd read the TL and buy it if it gets published.
So there you go.
 
Lyautey was long gone by this stage, as was Gallieni. The proposed POD would be after the VVS Malagasy nationalist group was founded, after July 1913; and would the French have the time, funding or resources to deal with a full-scale separatist, restorationist uprising on Madagascar if it breaks out in the middle of WWI?

My bad, I forgot Lyautey had a sting on the mainland before Morocco! However, Gallieni stayed until 1905, so just a few years before your PoD.

Ok, so if we imagine independance tries to break out during WWI. It's doubtful France would let it go but with a skilled enough malgache diplomat, one could imagine an association treaty with Madagascar devolving to protectorate level with little hands on French intervention, you have a chance.

However, if you go for full independance, meaning it would have been a bloody war, there are still issues. First with the independance war itself. France will not let Madagascar go and at the time has technological advantage. Which leads to the big problem. There is no second source for them to get an actual advantage in weapons and financing.

Maybe Madagascar gets Prussian support prior to WWI? Wouldn't be too strange. So that would be your independance sorted, at a great cost, Gallieni did kill 3% of the population in the pacification so imagine for the independance...

Let's imagine they get independance and there are enough warm bodies to man potential factories. Your next issue is financing. Nobody will give them money as it would set up a bad precedent. Ok to piss off the French but you don't wanna help the newly independants, bad example for your own colonies, and the USSR is still at war.

These are the issues that need resolving
 
The thing is, ITTL, the POD here is after the French colonization of Madagascar, meaning that the French colonialists have... started up the process of basic industrialisation...
Basic industrialisation had already started prior to French colonisation thanks to Jean Laborde and a group of five other Europeans. He was shipwrecked off Madagascar, wound up at the royal court and managed to gain position and land by helping start local industrialisation and updating the military. To quote the relevant section

They had no imported machinery beyond simple blacksmith's tools and no documents, but within a few years were producing iron (cast and wrought), steel (via the crucible method), muskets, gunpowder, light cannons, metal-working lathes, watermills, window and blown glass, machine-spun cotton, spinning machinery, and power looms. Laborde built a complete industrial complex. Within 6 years, he had blast furnaces with waterwheel-powered draught producing cast iron, puddling mills producing wrought iron, a steeling plant producing spring steel, a glassworks, brickworks and cement-plant, a heavy foundry capable of producing 24-pound cannons, a musket factory, a gunpowder mill, a tower to make lead shot, and textile mills. Laborde also opened up mines, roads, and bridges in various parts of the island. He built ox and horse wagons and a short horse-drawn stretch of railway.
Would appear to be a pretty decent start. If you want Madagascar to follow Japan's lead then the best option seems to be to somehow avoid situations like Radama II giving concessions to Joseph-Francois Lambert whilst still a prince which provided the opening for French interventions.
 
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