WI Mehmedbašić not Princip assassinates the Archduke

One of the members of the black hand who tried to assassinate the archduke in Sarajevo was a Bosniak named Muhamed Mehmedbašić. IOTL, he did nothing nothing as the archduke passes by, claiming that a policeman was behind him. WI though, the policeman wasn't there, and he does the deed? 1. Would this affect anything in terms of the Austrian reaction, seeing how the assassin is obviously not a Serb? and 2. How would our memory of the event be different with a Bosniak assassin? It seems that often that the event is portrayed as the action of Serb nationalism, but would this change?
 
"Obviously not a Serb".
Wouldn't be that clear at the time. I mean, the idea of a Bosniak identity that is distinct and mutually exclusive with Serbian identity was not entrenched. There was, AFAIK, no Bosniak nationalism. In Serbia, as far as I can tell (members of the board more familiar with the topic, like Halagaz, might correct me) Bosniaks were regarded as Serbs of Islamic faith (which was emphatically not very well received, but still) and in general the idea was a South Slavic national cause that in itself had to downplay the religious angle.

Perception however would be different. The assassination would look more a local Bosnian issue and it could be harder for Austria to put the blame entirely upon the Serbian government. Perhaps the nihilistic-anarchist aspect of the plotter's "ideology" would come more into light (as opposed to the focus on the nationalistic aspect; both, of course, were there).
 
Not a single thing would be different aside from a footnote in the history books.

History students wouldn't have fun remarking on how it could be blamed on the Archduke's inept driver.
 
I think Falecius is right. Bosniak identity was at the time not mutually exclusive with Serbian or Croatian identity and there were some Bosnian Muslims who considered themselves Serbs or Croats and subscribed to that type of nationalism. Although if I had to guess I'd say a majority of Bosniaks prioritized the Bosnian Muslim identity.

Mehmedbašić's hometown of Stolac seems to have been unusually fond of that sort of thing, as it also gave Mustafa Golubić, a decorated Muslim Lieutenant in the WWI Serbian army and close ally of Apis and the rump Black Hand.

As for the Austrian reaction, OTL gives us a blueprint for how it would go: when the Austrian authorities caught Ivo Kranjčević - one of Princip's accomplices who happened to be a Croat - they changed his very Croat-sounding name into a Serb-sounding name (Milan) in all statements for the press. They also avoided or downplayed the names of a few other Bosniak/Muslim or Croat accomplices in order to create a more convenient narrative.

They'd probably try to deal with Mehmedbašić in a similar way - downplay his name and origin as much as possible and overemphasize any Serb accomplices they get their hands on and the real or alleged role of Serbia itself. I don't think anything much would change on a global level. On a local level...no idea. Maybe ethnic relations in Bosnia would be slightly better since the authorities would find it harder to organize an anti-Serbian pogrom.

I've seen one or two people retroactively try to compare Princip&co to 90s Serbian nationalists. I guess, with Mehmedbašić as the assassin, the Taliban would be a more commonly used comparison.(and still rather inaccurate and cheap)
 
One of the members of the black hand who tried to assassinate the archduke in Sarajevo was a Bosniak named Muhamed Mehmedbašić. IOTL, he did nothing nothing as the archduke passes by, claiming that a policeman was behind him. WI though, the policeman wasn't there, and he does the deed? 1. Would this affect anything in terms of the Austrian reaction, seeing how the assassin is obviously not a Serb? and 2. How would our memory of the event be different with a Bosniak assassin? It seems that often that the event is portrayed as the action of Serb nationalism, but would this change?

One of the teenage plotters, Vasilije "Vaso" Čubrilović, later was a figure in communist Yugolsavia, despite beeing a hardcore Serbian Nationalist who spoke about ethnic cleansings and a Greater Serbia. He died in 1990, a year befor the begin of the Civil War in Yugoslavia.
 
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I think Falecius is right. Bosniak identity was at the time not mutually exclusive with Serbian or Croatian identity and there were some Bosnian Muslims who considered themselves Serbs or Croats and subscribed to that type of nationalism. Although if I had to guess I'd say a majority of Bosniaks prioritized the Bosnian Muslim identity.

Mehmedbašić's hometown of Stolac seems to have been unusually fond of that sort of thing, as it also gave Mustafa Golubić, a decorated Muslim Lieutenant in the WWI Serbian army and close ally of Apis and the rump Black Hand.

As for the Austrian reaction, OTL gives us a blueprint for how it would go: when the Austrian authorities caught Ivo Kranjčević - one of Princip's accomplices who happened to be a Croat - they changed his very Croat-sounding name into a Serb-sounding name (Milan) in all statements for the press. They also avoided or downplayed the names of a few other Bosniak/Muslim or Croat accomplices in order to create a more convenient narrative.

They'd probably try to deal with Mehmedbašić in a similar way - downplay his name and origin as much as possible and overemphasize any Serb accomplices they get their hands on and the real or alleged role of Serbia itself. I don't think anything much would change on a global level. On a local level...no idea. Maybe ethnic relations in Bosnia would be slightly better since the authorities would find it harder to organize an anti-Serbian pogrom.

I've seen one or two people retroactively try to compare Princip&co to 90s Serbian nationalists. I guess, with Mehmedbašić as the assassin, the Taliban would be a more commonly used comparison.(and still rather inaccurate and cheap)

I was reading the wikipedia profile for Mehmedbasic, and it calls him a Serbian revolutionary, and in the infobox, it puts his ethnicity as Serb, so it looks like you are right about that. About Serbizing him, as the Austrians did Ivo Kranjčević, it seems harder, because unlike that guy, who was seems to have played a minor role, in this scenario Mehmedbasic pulls the trigger, so it seems hard to downplay that. Although I guess most of the plotters were Serb, so that could be used. I read that the Russian actions in the July crisis were motivated partly by the anti-Serb riots in Sarajevo, which might be affected by having Mehmedbasic kill the archduke, admittedly in Wikipedia.

Also, the aftermath matters too. If in a bizaare inversion of what happened OTL occurs, and all the plotters except Mehmedbasic escape to Montenegro, then things might change more, than if all the mostly Serb plotters were caught.
 
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Not a single thing would be different aside from a footnote in the history books.

History students wouldn't have fun remarking on how it could be blamed on the Archduke's inept driver.

From what I've read, the July Crisis that led to WW1 was so dependent on every detail, that I find it difficult to believe that nothing would change. If nothing else, perhaps it would lead to a different post assassination environment in Sarajevo, and less anti Serb violence, which was one event that seriously poisoned relations between the different ethnic groups. If nothing else, perhaps those relations would be better.
 
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