WI: Mehmed the Conqueror killed in the Night Attack at Târgoviște

[Mort the Reaper]

In 1462, Mehmed the Conqueror was invading Wallachia to defeat his treacherous former vassal, Vlad the Impaler. Knowing his forces would be no match for the Ottomans in a pitched battle, Vlad used scorched earth tactics and guerilla warfare against the Sultan and his army. One of his most daring moments during this time was when he led a nighttime attack on the Ottoman camp. While the Wallachians managed to kill about 15,000 Ottoman troops, Mehmed was not one of them.

But what if Vlad had managed to kill Mehmed? How would it have affected things?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

His son Mustafa would succeed him.

Vlad would be hailed as a hero. Legends would come in existence of Vlad killing Mehmed in person. Small motivation for the nearby Christian States. Mustafa would continue his fathers task and destroy Vlad.

 

[amidamaru88]

His son Mustafa would succeed him.

Vlad would be hailed as a hero. Legends would come in existence of Vlad killing Mehmed in person. Small motivation for the nearby Christian States. Mustafa would continue his fathers task and destroy Vlad.

Yeah, pretty much, sadly the situation back home wasn't the best for Vlad so even with the victory it's not certain how much longer he can last, maybe if the rest of Europe decides to aid him he can extend the conflict for a time however it's up in the air, Mustafa could try and continue the conflict or shore up his power base back home and return with a vengeance later on, which would be worse for the people.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Yeah, pretty much, sadly the situation back home wasn't the best for Vlad so even with the victory it's not certain how much longer he can last, maybe if the rest of Europe decides to aid him he can extend the conflict for a time however it's up in the air, Mustafa could try and continue the conflict or shore up his power base back home and return with a vengeance later on, which would be worse for the people.

The most realistic aid Vlad can get is from the Pope, Hungary and Moldova. Nobody was interested in a new campaign in the Balkans, though the death of Mehmed II can get some enthousiasm.

Mustafa will be vengeful most likely. Not sure if this is good though.

 

[amidamaru88]

The most realistic aid Vlad can get is from the Pope, Hungary and Moldova. Nobody was interested in a new campaign in the Balkans, though the death of Mehmed II can get some enthousiasm.

Mustafa will be vengeful most likely. Not sure if this is good though.

Exactly, most attempts by Walachi leaders die out this way, internal problems and lack of aid from allies or promised aid, in this case the more extreme version can have Mustafa take a cue from Vlad and impaling people left and right causing more problems possibly leading large swaths of the country to be take over by neighbouring states or repopulate the land with strict muslims casuing further problems down the road tieing to national unity. Now if by some miracle Vlad's army doesn't fall apart and the lords still suport him and he actually manages to kill Mustafa as well then he can go down into legend, maybe earn a title of Bane of... highly doubtful that he could have achieved such a feat though, not by another night attack, facing them in open field with come with it's own chalanges, he would need to retreat and a pick an area he knew all to well and that there would be no one to snitch about the details of the area to the enemy, thing is that the scorth earth tactic will be a kick in the balls once the war is over, Mustafa can just shrug and say not my problem send people to live there and start paying taxes, if they can't pay then they get raided and you only have your leaders to blame.

 

[Lascaris]

His son Mustafa would succeed him.

Vlad would be hailed as a hero. Legends would come in existence of Vlad killing Mehmed in person. Small motivation for the nearby Christian States. Mustafa would continue his fathers task and destroy Vlad.

Would he? In 1462 Bayezid is a bit over 14 years old (born December 1447), Mustafa 11 (born 1451) and Cem 3 years old. None is of age Bayezid being the closest. You almost certainly have civil war between supporters of each prince and quite possibly the need for a regency, granted Mehmet ruled directly at 15. Either way you yet an interregnum of 5-10 years depending on how bad the succession war is, who comes on top and till the new sultan both comes of age and establishes his authority during which the Ottomans are more interested in their internal issues than further wars of expansion. That's the very 5 years in which Mehmed conquered Bosnia and Karaman, went to war with Venice and start the conquest of Albania. So potentially pretty notable butterflies.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Would he? In 1462 Bayezid is a bit over 14 years old (born December 1447), Mustafa 11 (born 1451) and Cem 3 years old. None is of age Bayezid being the closest. You almost certainly have civil war between supporters of each prince and quite possibly the need for a regency, granted Mehmet ruled directly at 15. Either way you yet an interregnum of 5-10 years depending on how bad the succession war is, who comes on top and till the new sultan both comes of age and establishes his authority during which the Ottomans are more interested in their internal issues than further wars of expansion. That's the very 5 years in which Mehmed conquered Bosnia and Karaman, went to war with Venice and start the conquest of Albania. So potentially pretty notable butterflies.

Mehmed favoured Mustafa for some reason. Later he favoured Cem. I'd expect Mustafa to take over but it could be different.

(Tbf, I also forgot Bayezid was older lol...)

I think one could expect a cage system alike situation earlier because: A). Bayezid has no son yet. Mustafa and Cem can't have a son. So you could get Bayezid ruling as Sultan and Mustafa and Cem being locked up. It seems the same as Ahmed I was in in 1603 with being 13-14 and having no son and only one younger brother. That is how the whole cage systen was brought to life.

 

[Lascaris]

Mehmed favoured Mustafa for some reason. Later he favoured Cem. I'd expect Mustafa to take over but it could be different.

(Tbf, I also forgot Bayezid was older lol...)

I think one could expect a cage system alike situation earlier because: A). Bayezid has no son yet. Mustafa and Cem can't have a son. So you could get Bayezid ruling as Sultan and Mustafa and Cem being locked up. It seems the same as Ahmed I was in in 1603 with being 13-14 and having no son and only one younger brother. That is how the whole cage systen was brought to life.

A cage system from the 1460s could be, how to put it mildly... bad for the empire and the Ottoman empire of 1460 is not controlling everything for the Austrian border to Persia with the attendant staying power.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

A cage system from the 1460s could be, how to put it mildly... bad for the empire and the Ottoman empire of 1460 is not controlling everything for the Austrian border to Persia with the attendant staying power.

The cage system was bad for any period. A lot of Sultans between 1617 and 1789 were... not fit to be Sultans. It won't be necessarily bad now as the Military is still stronger. But the problems starting in the 1620s may start as early as the 1550s. By the way, ruling Hungary was not necessarily a good thing. It overextended the Ottomans causing other problems. The Empires borders ending in Belgrade or Petrovaradin in Europe seems better.

To my idea, I don't expect Bayezid to spare his brothers. He had not the same character as Ahmed who could not execute his younger brother. But they won't be executed immediately because again, Bayezid has no son yet.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Unless there’s some sort of civil or rebellions (or both) then it only extends Vlad’s reign a little while longer. Although it would make vlad even more popular.

Yet again this is Alternate History, who’s to say that some ambitious eunuch, courtier or commander won’t try and put one of his younger brothers on the throne thus starting a succession crisis?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Unless there’s some sort of civil or rebellions (or both) then it only extends Vlad’s reign a little while longer. Although it would make vlad even more popular.

Yet again this is Alternate History, who’s to say that some ambitious eunuch, courtier or commander won’t try and put one of his younger brothers on the throne thus starting a succession crisis?

Nobody tried this that's why. A 14 year old Ottoman Prince is favourable over any non dynastic figure.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Nobody tried this that's why. A 14 year old Ottoman Prince is favourable over any non dynastic figure.

How do you know that the sudden death of a sultan won’t shake it things up? It’s not like a 14 year old will have the experience and maturity to secure his succession. I can’t imagine that the entire ottoman court was that loyal and dedicated to doing the right thing that they would pass up an opportunity to be the true power in the sultanate.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

How do you know that the sudden death of a sultan won’t shake it things up? It’s not like a 14 year old will have the experience and maturity to secure his succession. I can’t imagine that the entire ottoman court was that loyal and dedicated to doing the right thing that they would pass up an opportunity to be the true power in the sultanate.

Because there were many more of these kind of situation. Ahmed I was 13/14 during his succession, Mehmed IV was 6. Also very vunerable times. The Janissaries, though rising in corruption were still loyal to the dynasty. Especially in the 15th century.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Because there were many more of these kind of situation. Ahmed I was 13/14 during his succession, Mehmed IV was 6. Also very vunerable times. The Janissaries, though rising in corruption were still loyal to the dynasty. Especially in the 15th century.

How powerful were the janissaries at this time? My understanding of ottoman history is minimal.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

How powerful were the janissaries at this time? My understanding of ottoman history is minimal.

Around 1462? Pretty strong, the strongest infantry in Europe most definitely. But small in numbers. About 7 or 8 thousand

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Around 1462? Pretty strong, the strongest infantry in Europe most definitely. But small in numbers. About 7 or 8 thousand

Really? I thought they’d be a bit smaller. But hey, yah learn something new every day.