WI: Mehmed II killed during the Night Attack?

On 17 June 1462, Vlad the Impaler attacked the camp of Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II in an attempt to kill Mehmed known as the Night Attack. Although the Wallachians inflicted a massive defeat on Mehmed's forces, they did not succeed in killing Mehmed.

What if they had?
 
But of course I shouldn't fail to mention that Vlad the Impaler will be viewed as a Christian hero to the entire Christian world.
 
Depends on succession, Ottoman succession was very bloody until Suleiman the Magnificent. You had who ever was the stronger brother and willing to kill off his other brothers would win.
 
Well, at 1462 only one of Mehmed's sons was capable of the throne - Bayezid was 15 and Cem was 3. An early death would have meant that Bayezid's claim became much more secure. I don't think the fact that Bayezid ascended the throne at 15 is a problem since Mehmed II himself took the throne (first time) at 12. Not sure that Bayezid would have had the nerve to kill Cem, though (unlike, say, Selim I) - but by the time Cem was of age Bayezid might well have consolidated enough power to make this a moot point.

Vlad's killing of Mehmed would have been hailed across the Christian world and perhaps even would have led to another Crusade... if Europe hadn't been focusing on the Hussite heresy in Bohemia. The crucial component of any Ottoman Crusade - Hungary - would probably have considered crusade against Bohemia more fruitful than crusade against the Ottomans. So I don't think another Varna Crusade could have gotten through.

Have to say that Bayezid II was quite competent at consolidating the Empire, if not expanding it. An earlier Bayezid might have been more cautious about expansion, probably focusing mostly on the Venetians and Genoans rather than everywhere at once (though events out of his control, like the Bosnian revolt, might have forced his hand). Maybe more time might also have allowed Bayezid to deal with the succession/retire early, so that he could hand over a strengthened 'core' Ottoman Empire to Selim I (and he frankly should, given Selim's capabilities :p).
 
Last edited:

Dirk

Banned
Depends on succession, Ottoman succession was very bloody until Suleiman the Magnificent. You had who ever was the stronger brother and willing to kill off his other brothers would win.

Truth. Also, Vlad--despite what his detractors say--was a pretty effective leader of men. The Serbs, Bulgars, and other Christian peoples in the Balkans would rise up immediately against Ottoman rule as the army hightails it back to Constantinople. Mehmed has two sons at this point, one 15 years old and the other 3; some general or administrator could take control of the toddler and instigate a civil war, which weakens them even more.

With Christian backlash in the Balkans, there may be a serious push by the HRE or France to retake Constantinople, push the Turkish menace back, and/or liberate Greeks and others...though it's not awfully likely. Hungary's Matthias Corvinus is a young man in the middle of intense struggles, and England is suffering the War of the Roses.
 
It sounds like to me that Vlad succeeding in killing Mehmed II would've like lead to the Ottomans being expelled from Europe as Constantinople was a very important city to the Christian world and expelling the Ottoman infidels (As the Europeans would've seen them) from it would've been a high priority.
 
Assuming that the Ottomans would be expelled, there would be a huge power vacuum though. Bulgaria and Serbia are pretty much unable to regain their strength, and Hungary is poised to take the Balkans.
 
It sounds like to me that Vlad succeeding in killing Mehmed II would've like lead to the Ottomans being expelled from Europe as Constantinople was a very important city to the Christian world and expelling the Ottoman infidels (As the Europeans would've seen them) from it would've been a high priority.

It could have the potential to greatly destabilize the Ottomans, but it's very unlikely would it lead to the Ottomans losing Constantinople and being driven out of Europe.
 
It could have the potential to greatly destabilize the Ottomans, but it's very unlikely would it lead to the Ottomans losing Constantinople and being driven out of Europe.

Maybe they wouldn't initially be able to completely push the Ottomans out of Europe short-term but in the long term it would likely weaken them enough to push them back into Eastern Thrace before being kicked out of Europe. I'm sure Persia would've taken advantage of Mehmed II's premature death by pushing into the eastern flanks of the Ottoman empire. It might also be the impetus, as another poster pointed out, for a new crusade against the Ottomans.

Anyway i'd like to see one of this board's writers take up the challenge and write a fic where Vlad succeeds in his attack to kill Mehmed II. On another note if Vlad also succeeded in capturing his brother wouldn't he have executed as a traitor?
 
Assuming that the Ottomans would be expelled, there would be a huge power vacuum though. Bulgaria and Serbia are pretty much unable to regain their strength, and Hungary is poised to take the Balkans.

What if Ottomans had sneezed out of the dust wind ? Their stability will collapse, the entire Europe will gangbang them and their subjects rebel against them and they'll be expelled from Europe !

This is actually an interesting idea, since Bayezit will be much younger when he ascends to the throne. Cem was barely 3 years old in 1462. This will setback Ottoman expansion, for sure. Bosnia was still independent by then, and its life has gotten an extension. The War with Venice will be also delayed for a while. In fact a lot of territorial acquisitions by Mehmet were made later IOTL. This might actually prevent the Ottomans from becoming the juggernaut they became IOTL, but they'll remain the powerhouse in the Balkans. No question over them staying there for centuries to come. This way will get us a more Europe-oriented Ottoman state.

So please, don't spoil potential PoDs like this with overt libido for Ottoman screw.
 
So basically Mehmed II's early death would basically bugger the Ottomans European expansion?

It won't stop it. Ottoman dynamism during this period didn't solely rest on the leaders, but the latter did accelerated the process almost inhumanely. It's of course easy to expect another talented Sultan in the line, since IOTL Mehmed II and Yavuz Selim were only 2 generations apart from each other. But here it's easy to butterfly Selim. Even if someone as talented as Selim will appear later, he'll might come to late to expand to Egypt and repell the Safavids. But that might very well mean his focus will be on Europe instead. We can expect earlier fall of Hungary, for one thing, but on the other hand Anatolia will be more neglected. Ottomans will be more entrenched in Europe this way, on the expense of the global relevance they enjoyed IOTL.
 
Musulmen bad, musulmen no win.

To be fair, opportunity for Asian adventure will might slip off hand this way, since the task of consolidating the Balkans that fell to Mehmet IOTL will might proceed slower. I don't see civil war though. Bayezit will be very secure at this time, so will be anyone who'll become de facto ruler behind him. Intrigues of political rivalry might turn the state inward for a while until Bayezit reach full maturity, but that's about it.
 
There's no way Walachia will escape Ottoman domination. What will might change would be perhaps Vlad's reputation in Europe. I won't be surprised that he'll be elevated into sainthood sometimes after his death.
 
Top