WI: Medieval HIV/AIDS Pandemic

Delta Force

Banned
What are the religious, economic, and social implications of the HIV/AIDS pandemic taking hold in Europe during the Middle Ages instead of the 1900s? For purposes of this, the Middle Ages can include the late 1490s, around the time of the first documented syphilis outbreak in Europe.
 
In fact, this would probably have few direct effects. Contrary to syphilis, which was rather spectacular during the first epidemics, AIDS has a very long incubation time and non-specific symptoms.

Most likely, it would have go unrecognized
 
Except that without the very specific series of events only possible in a 19th century industrialized and exploitative colonial setting, it's vanishingly unlikely that SIV would mutate into HIV in the first place.
 
Strictly speaking, you just need to eat raw bushmeat. Every time you get a functional SIV virus into your body, there is a certain, very low, chance of SVI making the jump.

The circumstances of the 19th and 20th century increased the probablility of a zoonotic jump from very, very unlikly to just unlikly. But its not ASB to postulate that the dice could have come up snake-eyes earlier.
 
In fact, this would probably have few direct effects. Contrary to syphilis, which was rather spectacular during the first epidemics, AIDS has a very long incubation time and non-specific symptoms.

Most likely, it would have go unrecognized

Especially considering that with small pox, cholera and the occasion outbreak of the plague, anyone with a weakened immune system would fall to these diseases. That, along with war and the general crumminess of life in the Middle Ages would probably mean virtually none infected with HIV would live long enough to worry about it. It's kind of like modern people wondering why so many people smoked a century or more ago when it's not healthy; even if they understood the ill effects, they were still far more likely to die of something else than lung cancer.
 
Strictly speaking, you just need to eat raw bushmeat. Every time you get a functional SIV virus into your body, there is a certain, very low, chance of SVI making the jump.

The circumstances of the 19th and 20th century increased the probablility of a zoonotic jump from very, very unlikly to just unlikly. But its not ASB to postulate that the dice could have come up snake-eyes earlier.

AIDS could've made the jump to Humans early on, yes, however it would not spread to Europe in the Middle Ages since at the time Europeans did'nt have alot of contact with Africa outside of North Africa, and the area AIDS would develop is far into the interior of Middle Africa where Europeans would'nt even get to until the late 18th century at earliest.
 
Especially considering that with small pox, cholera and the occasion outbreak of the plague, anyone with a weakened immune system would fall to these diseases. That, along with war and the general crumminess of life in the Middle Ages would probably mean virtually none infected with HIV would live long enough to worry about it. It's kind of like modern people wondering why so many people smoked a century or more ago when it's not healthy; even if they understood the ill effects, they were still far more likely to die of something else than lung cancer.

AIDS/HIV doesn't really work like that. You are contagious for 8-20 years before your immune system starts to fail.

AIDS could've made the jump to Humans early on, yes, however it would not spread to Europe in the Middle Ages since at the time Europeans did'nt have alot of contact with Africa outside of North Africa, and the area AIDS would develop is far into the interior of Middle Africa where Europeans would'nt even get to until the late 18th century at earliest.

You don't need direct contact, or to make it to Europe in a single leap. The interior of middle Africa was not totally isolated from other human populations, so one guy passing it onto another person, who went to a trading town and visited the local house of ill repute...epidemics spread. Thats what they do.
 
Strictly speaking, you just need to eat raw bushmeat. Every time you get a functional SIV virus into your body, there is a certain, very low, chance of SVI making the jump.

The circumstances of the 19th and 20th century increased the probablility of a zoonotic jump from very, very unlikly to just unlikly. But its not ASB to postulate that the dice could have come up snake-eyes earlier.

It's hardly snakeseyes, given that it's happened twice: hiv1 from chimpanzees estern Africa, and hiv2 from monkeys in western Africa.

My guess is that it jumped to humans dozens of times, it just never spread those other times.
 
You don't need direct contact, or to make it to Europe in a single leap. The interior of middle Africa was not totally isolated from other human populations, so one guy passing it onto another person, who went to a trading town and visited the local house of ill repute...epidemics spread. Thats what they do.

On that note, I think you would be much more likely to see HIV in the Middle East before Europe in the time period. Goods like ivory and gold did travel from Africa to Spain and Italy at this time, but there were several degrees of separation between the buyers and sellers.

Arab and Tuareg traders had much more extensive contact with this part of the world in person. And, not limiting themselves to physical commodities, they also were involved in a rather lively slave trade, with Egypt being the main hub in the Middle Ages. Some of these slaves were female, and concubinage was very well established in Islamic law.
 
At the time it probable won't matter, even if you've got HIV/AIDs lots of other stuff has a better chance of killing you first.

Actually children might be noticed first, since they can be born with it they'll have a better chance of visible dying from it. Though it still probable won't be recognized as a new disease for a while.

It will have an impact though, it'll have evolved a lot longer with humans the question is if that makes it better or worse.

Also peoples reaction to it will be different than OTL when it's finally discovered as a unique disease.
 
If it effectively keeps human populations low enough, you could see feudalism lasting longer and forestall industrialism and capitalism.
 
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