Albert II, Duke of Mecklenburg, sought influence in Scandinavia throughout the mid-14th century. In this he was successful, the Mecklenburgs being major players for the second half of the 14th century. He married Euphemia of Sweden, and their second son, also named Albert, successfully claimed the throne of Sweden due to an aristocratic rebellion against Euphemia's brother, Magnus.
However Albert had also arranged for his firstborn son, Henry, to marry King Valdemar of Denmark's eldest daughter, Ingeborg. When Valdemar later died, their eldest son, yet another Albert, was put forth as a potential successor. However the estates were won over instead by Margaret to elect her son, Olaf, for numerous reasons. Ingeborg had died before her father, and so Margaret was Valdemar's sole surviving child. This alongside her popularity and political skills was to Margaret's advantage. There was also quite a bit of anti-German sentiment at the time, and the locals didn't wants a second Mecklenburg ruler in Scandinavia. Finally, Olaf's father, King Haakon on Norway, went to great lengths to have Olaf elected. He borrowed money to bribe the Hanseatic League, which had gained the power to veto Danish throne candidates in the Treaty of Stralsund. The potential union with Norway was also a factor.
Obviously what I'm wondering is if Albert was elected over Olaf. Let's say Norway is hit even harder by the Black Death or a conflict broke out between Norway and Sweden to distract Haakon. Either way, the Hanseatic League isn't placated by Haakon, and we'll say the Mecklenburgs get the Hansa's support instead.
In this case:
- The Danish estates, led by Danish Drots Henning Podebrusk, had favored Olaf both for support of Margaret and anti-German sentiments. Is it likely that even if Albert could obtain the throne through support of the Hansa, that they could pacify the Danish nobility? Or would this turn into a similar situation as Sweden, with the nobility eventually rebelling and calling upon Olaf?
- How would the Hanseatic League interact with growing Mecklenburg power? Their general policy was to try to hinder the growth of territorial powers that could threaten them. Would the Mecklenburgs start trying to oppose the League after their successes, or would they go out of their way to keep relations good?
- Assuming Olaf still died in 1387, could the Mecklenburgs become rulers of Norway as well, forming an alt-Kalmar Union where each country is ruled by differing branches of the House of Mecklenburg? Or would the Hanseatic League or Norwegian estates object and start a differing dynasty?
- Would the differing royal branches of the Mecklenburgs be able to cooperate, potentially forming a Macklenburg alliance? Or would they likely start infighting?
- Either before he dies or if his death is butterflied away, if Olaf is indeed encouraged to depose the Mecklenburg kings by aristocratic/native rebellions could he succeed? Queen Margaret had the support of both Norway and Denmark, alongside the rebellious Swedish nobles, and King Albert of Sweden with Hanseatic support was still able to keep in the running for a number of years despite being captured and held hostage for years. Is Norway simply too weak by this point to beat the Mecklenburgs back in both Sweden and Denmark, even with support from the locals and nobles? Especially when the Mecklenburgs could very well hire mercenaries or gain support from German dukes and counts for a counter-invasion if they were driven from said countries back to Mecklenburg? With the Mecklenburgs ruling two kingdoms, are they simply too entrenched by this point?