In the 1972 US Election, George McGovern lost to President Richard Nixon in one of the largest landslides in history. Among the reasons often cited for his loss are his outsider status, his apparent "far left" ideological stances, and of course the infamous "Amnesty, abortion, and acid" line from his short lived running mate Thomas Eagleton. But let's say that, whether he simply doesn't run or loses the nomination, McGovern isn't the Democratic candidate in 1972. When 76 rolls around, (assuming Nixon still wins reelection) his outsider status suddenly becomes a benefit, as it was for Jimmy Carter IOTL. What are the odds of him winning the nomination then, and then the Presidency?
 
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In the 1972 US Election, George McGovern lost to President Richard Nixon in one of the largest landslides in history. Among the reasons often cited for his loss are his outsider status, his apparent "far left" ideological stances, and of course the infamous "Amnesty, abortion, and acid" line from his short lived running mate Thomas Eagleton. But let's say that, whether he simply doesn't run or loses the nomination, McGovern isn't the Democratic candidate in 1972. When 76 rolls around, (assuming Nixon still wins reelection) his outsider status suddenly becomes a benefit, as it was for Jimmy Carter IOTL. What are the odds of him winning the nomination then, and then the Presidency?


If McGovern doesn't run in 1972, some other farther-left Democrat will. In 1972, anti-war sentiment was very strong among Democrats (outside the South), and delegate selection rules had been drastically reformed to reduce the dominance of traditional party insiders. This latter process had gone so far that the convention expelled the entire Illinois delegation, led by Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, because there were not enough blacks and women, and seated a delegation of liberal reformers. This group, as columnist Mike Royko noted, was far less representative of Illinois Democrats than Daley's group.

The McGovernite leftists believed that their views would carry the day in November, that America was ripe for truly a truly "progressive" political program. But like the Goldwaterites in 1964, they had overreached, and lost big time. By 1976, the Democrats were less interested in ideological purity than winning. Carter was a near-ideal candidate - someone who could win back the once-Solid South, and appeal to evangelical Christian voters, while retaining the national vote of liberals and blacks. A McGovern-type candidate would fail.
 
Suppose he lost the nominatin in 72 in ways that did not feel legitimate to progressives. Humphre/Muskie or someone likes that loses 72 (not as heavily as McGovern in otl but badly enough)

Watergate comes out as otl...
 
Carter won not only due to being an outsider, because of his appeal as a moderate candidate, and Ford was still able to make it close despite Watergate. McGovern didn't lose only because Nixon was popular, but because he ran a terrible campaign and was too far left. Ford wins decisively.
 
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