WI: McCain for President 1996

IOTL, Arizona Senator John McCain, who lost the race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000 but won it in 2008, only to be defeated by Barack Obama, first considered running for President of the United States in 1996. However, he declined to.

So, what if Sen. McCain decides to jump into the race? At the time, he was a truly bipartisan senator who was willing to team up with Democrats in the Senate to get stuff done. I doubt he could have won the Republican nomination in 1996, although I do wonder about his chances against Clinton in November; however, I'm asking all of you: What if John McCain decided to run? Do you think he would have had a chance at the nomination? If so, could he have defeated Clinton? And if not, what if he scored a second-place finish to Bob Dole, positioning himself as the frontrunner for 2000?
 
IOTL, Arizona Senator John McCain, who lost the race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000 but won it in 2008, only to be defeated by Barack Obama, first considered running for President of the United States in 1996. However, he declined to.

So, what if Sen. McCain decides to jump into the race? At the time, he was a truly bipartisan senator who was willing to team up with Democrats in the Senate to get stuff done. I doubt he could have won the Republican nomination in 1996, although I do wonder about his chances against Clinton in November; however, I'm asking all of you: What if John McCain decided to run? Do you think he would have had a chance at the nomination? If so, could he have defeated Clinton? And if not, what if he scored a second-place finish to Bob Dole, positioning himself as the frontrunner for 2000?

He still is a bipartisan senator. The crazy Mccain only manifested his self for one year for the 2008 election.
 
1996 was not a good year to be a center-right candidate, which is who McCain was (and largely still is). Dole largely filled that segment of the GOP. He was also the establishment candidate who had the support of most of his Senate colleagues and most mainstream conservatives. For McCain to avoid being boxed out, he would have to really emphasize his maverick record. This in turn would alienate many conservatives, especially the Grover Norquist's and Pat Robertson's of the world. Then again, if he dosen't, he ends up being like Phil Gramm.

'96 was an election where the Republican Party really wanted to build on the Contract with America and the 1994 Midterm Elections. But there was some real division over what '94 meant. Did it mean hacking and slashing the government? Or did it represent a more populist conservatism in contrast to the yuppie-centric policies of Bill Clinton? Clearly there was a major populist streak, as Pat Buchanan won the Alaska and New Hampshire contests and was within a handful of points from winning in Iowa and Arizona. At the same time, Steve Forbes, who represented the small government wing of the party, won in Arizona and Delaware. Clearly GOP voters didn't want a same old, same old nominee. Luckily for Dole, a string of Western and Southern states gave him the momentum to win the nomination.

If McCain had run as a fiscally conservative maverick, he could have a decent shot at winning the nomination. Yet he would have to really drive home the fact that he was going to bring significant change to Washington and to the GOP, because that's what many voters really wanted. In the general election, he would certainly outperform Dole, but would probably still lose. Clinton ran a superb campaign and the economy was on the rebound. Also, McCain wasn't a great campaigner in his own regard and had a lot of the same qualities that Dole had that didn't help in the end (respected legislator, war hero). So in the end, McCain still goes down in defeat. And in 2000, the pathway to Bush winning the GOP nomination is even smoother.
 
Dole would to have to not run for McCain to have a chance, saving for some disaster on the part of the Dole campaign.

McCain doesn't stand any more of a chance to win than Dole did though.

McCain looses, doesn't run in 2000. Loosing the election changes him like it did after 2008 IOTL - he shifts right on the issues.

Who knows how 2000 goes without McCain - Bush probably runs away with it, no idea how that will affect the general election.
 
McCain's problem in '96 is that he is almost a complete unknown. The "almost" meaning that for those who do recognize him, he's one of the Keating 5. This was recent enough for the media to bring it up and therefore destroy McCain's candidacy before it got off the ground. Also, there's no reason for McCain to run in '96: he's basically a younger version of Bob Dole.
 
McCain would go nowhere in 1996; he made his name nationally as a result of being a talking head on Kosovo and in 1996 he's probably best remembered for Keating Five. 1996 is a clear race between Dole and the right (Buchanan on the social side, Forbes on the economic side) and McCain fits in nowhere in that; I can't see him being a unity candidate (He's too close to Dole's position) or being able to challenge Dole directly.

Assuming he runs, probably he fails in NH and pulls out at some point soon after. I don't see him being able to mount a serious challenge, unless Dole doesn't run.
 
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