alternatehistory.com

In May 1903, a group of junior Serbian Army officers - led by Dragutin Dimitrijević ('Apis') who later masterminded the Black Hand's assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand - launched a Coup against the reigning King Alexander Obrenović of Serbia. They were dissatisfied with his constant scheming and intriguing to concentrate political power in his own hands; with his diplomatic closeness with Austria-Hungary and distance from the fellow Slavs in St. Petersburg; and with his marriage to an infertile widow, Draga Mašin. Draga's brothers were also in the army and very unpopular with their fellow officers, which was a problem since it was rumoured that Alexander was going to make one of them his heir.

The conspirators entered the royal palace and killed the King and Queen, plus her brothers and a couple of senior politicians. However, the attempt could very easily have failed: when they entered the royal bedroom, there was no sign of Alexander and Draga, and they were only found and slaughtered when one eagle-eyed assassin spotted the keyhole of a secret doorway into a panic room. Apis was also shot three times by a loyalist guard, but survived.

So let's say the Coup fails: the conspirators are all either arrested or killed, including Apis. What does the survival of Alexander mean for Serbia and the Balkans in general? I assume there would still be alt-Balkan Wars due to the weakness of the Ottomans and ethnic tensions between the Balkan states, but how would these be different with an Austrian-aligned Serbia? And from a monarchical standpoint, who follows Alexander as King of Serbia?

Dare I ask about the *First World War?
Top