What houses would side with Maximilian during the italian wars and who would side with his enemies?
What do you mean by houses? Within Hungary or in Europe in general? If the latter, then the alliance of the Sforza family is garantueed, since they want to get Milan back, while Max wants to curtail the French influence in Italy. The Trastamaras are also good counter to France, and Naples is out of Imperial reach anyway. The Pope would constantly change sides, Venice would be enemy, I don't know the others.
 
The OTL 13th Hungaro-Turkish war (1499-1504) could still happen TTL. As in OTL, a Papal sponsored Hungarian-French-Venetian alliance could form. OTL, the Poles were part of the alliance, but TTL they probably wouldn't, but the HRE would. This war could be relatively successful. the capture of Szendrő(Smederevo) could mark the reestablishment of the Despotate of Serbia under Jovan Brankovic's rule, with Hungarian suzeiranity ofcourse. If the Christian forces are lucky, maybe even Galambóc(Golubac) could be captured as well. Capturing two forts might sound quite petty, however they were extremely important to check the Ottoman advance. The victory also could tip the favour to Hungarian orientation in the two Romanian principalities.

I think this could also have consequences for the Italian Wars. Specifically, Maximilian could use the victory against the Ottomans and the reestablishment of Serbia to lure Montferrat to his side.

How? Well, Despot Jovan Branković had no sons, only daughters. In other words, there is an open question of succession looming over the Despotate that Maximilian needs to resolve. In OTL, this question was largely irrelevant, since the Serbian Despotate had become a government in exile. In this scenario, the question would be more important...and one of the best claimants for the Serbian throne would be house Palaiologos, the ruling house of Montferrat. (Jovan's sister Maria had married Boniface III, and the current Marquis was their son.)

So Maximilian can offer the Despotate of Serbia to William of Montferrat. And he can promise that house Palaiologos of Montferrat will have Constantinople, if it's recovered (a promise that would be totally ridiculous if it came from OTL's Vladislav, but which wouldn't sound quite so hollow in light of Maximilian's victories). Just to sweeten the deal.

Besides Montferrat, a few other minor players in Italy could defect to Maximilian - not for any particular reasons, but simply because of his increased power.
 
I think this could also have consequences for the Italian Wars. Specifically, Maximilian could use the victory against the Ottomans and the reestablishment of Serbia to lure Montferrat to his side.

How? Well, Despot Jovan Branković had no sons, only daughters. In other words, there is an open question of succession looming over the Despotate that Maximilian needs to resolve. In OTL, this question was largely irrelevant, since the Serbian Despotate had become a government in exile. In this scenario, the question would be more important...and one of the best claimants for the Serbian throne would be house Palaiologos, the ruling house of Montferrat. (Jovan's sister Maria had married Boniface III, and the current Marquis was their son.)

So Maximilian can offer the Despotate of Serbia to William of Montferrat. And he can promise that house Palaiologos of Montferrat will have Constantinople, if it's recovered (a promise that would be totally ridiculous if it came from OTL's Vladislav, but which wouldn't sound quite so hollow in light of Maximilian's victories). Just to sweeten the deal.

Besides Montferrat, a few other minor players in Italy could defect to Maximilian - not for any particular reasons, but simply because of his increased power.
That's a very nice idea you got there, I never thought about it. Could this shift in power mean Imperial victory in the War of the League of Cambrai? Restoring the Sforzas and curtailing Venetian power would be nice.
 
Last edited:
Based on this discussion, I came to the conclusion, that an early Habsburg Hungary would probably have little effect on the Italian Wars and on the history of Western Europe in the 16th century in general. So that's why I propose to jump a 100 years forward, and let's talk about the 17th century! Given, that this sceniario is only interesting with Hungary remaining intact, that's what we will assume, with Nándorfehérvár(Belgrade) and Jajca(Jajce) remaining in Hungarian (, therefore in Habsburg) hands.

If there's a 30 years' war or something similar taking place, how much influence could the nondisunited Hungary have on the process and outcome of the war? The fortsystem in the South is much shorter, and more defendable, than its OTL successor, which was much longer and in much worse position. This means, that the upkeep of the fortsystem is much smaller, while at the same time, the Habsburgs have a lot of extra income and resources from the unravaged Hungary. This makes the Habsburgs much wealthier, and they also have a greater manpower pool to recruite from. What do you think, is this enough for a complete Habsburg victory in the 30 years war? What are the future implications? What else can we talk about? Tell me what you think!
 
Based on this discussion, I came to the conclusion, that an early Habsburg Hungary would probably have little effect on the Italian Wars and on the history of Western Europe in the 16th century in general. So that's why I propose to jump a 100 years forward, and let's talk about the 17th century! Given, that this sceniario is only interesting with Hungary remaining intact, that's what we will assume, with Nándorfehérvár(Belgrade) and Jajca(Jajce) remaining in Hungarian (, therefore in Habsburg) hands.

If there's a 30 years' war or something similar taking place, how much influence could the nondisunited Hungary have on the process and outcome of the war? The fortsystem in the South is much shorter, and more defendable, than its OTL successor, which was much longer and in much worse position. This means, that the upkeep of the fortsystem is much smaller, while at the same time, the Habsburgs have a lot of extra income and resources from the unravaged Hungary. This makes the Habsburgs much wealthier, and they also have a greater manpower pool to recruite from. What do you think, is this enough for a complete Habsburg victory in the 30 years war? What are the future implications? What else can we talk about? Tell me what you think!

You need some serious POD for Hungary to remain intact. The Ottomans are really strong at this time period and we are at the point where he old type of fortresses - that kept the otto's at bay this far - are becoming obsolote thanks to artillery. The transition period aligns with Ottoman strength in a way that leaves Hungary in a very week position.

But lets say that somehow this happened. Hungary is still weakened by the raiding in the southern border area which will still be devasteted. Further I have read several times that Mathias overtaxed the country which was at this point pretty exhausted - seeing the wealth of some of the leading magnates (Tamás Bakócz for example) i dont necesserily agree. For your POD to have a significant impact you will have to keep the king strong as well or you will end up with a Poland 2.0 just earlier.

Than there is the reformation - OTL it was pretty infuential in Hungary. OTOH you wont have independent Transylvania so the hungarian magnates dont have outside backing. Another important factor is that with Hungary intact the Ottoman threat wont be viewed as that threatening as OTL by the other HRE states so maybe less help from there.

In a 30 years war analogue I can see the protestant nobility of Hungary revolting like the bohemians.
 
You need some serious POD for Hungary to remain intact. The Ottomans are really strong at this time period and we are at the point where he old type of fortresses - that kept the otto's at bay this far - are becoming obsolote thanks to artillery. The transition period aligns with Ottoman strength in a way that leaves Hungary in a very week position.

I thought about this. My idea is another huge victory at Belgrade. OTL, the siege of Belgrade in 1521 was relatively long, despite how ill-manned, obsolete and badly maintained the fort was.
But first of all, I believe, that Maximimilian was a competent ruler. He could continue Matthias' centralising effort, while at the same time he could relieve a bit the population of Hungary from the massive tax burdens by relying on the incomes of his other realms. Lowering the taxes, while keeping the barons at bay would largely attract the lesser nobility and the towns, which could give a huge powerbase to Max. While the modernisation of the forts would not take place during his reign, atleast they would be properly maintained and manned.
All of these are already a pretty huge boost to the position of Hungary against the Turks.
Regarding the reformation, there are many factors ITTL, which would make it spread less and much slower compared to OTL:
-No feudal anarchy
-Smaller burdens on the population
-No Dózsa rebellion->No second serfdom
-No de facto protestant ruler (both Louis II and Mary von Habsburg were rather fond protestantism)
-No civil war
-etc.
Some barons would definately convert to protestantism, but not all of them, since that would mean, that they voluntarily give up on acquiring positions in the Court, for example Bán(Viceroy), Nádor(Palatine), etc.

Back to the proposed victory at Belgrade. OTL, Suleiman as soon as he succeded his father, he was at war with Hungary, and in 1521, he launched a campaign with Belgrade as target. TTL, the country is much more united, has an older and more able ruler (Ferdinand), who is also ruler of both Bohemia and Austria, so recruiting an army, which could relieve Belgrade is more than possible. Add in some luck, and we very well can have a major victory over the Ottomans. The defeat could make Suleiman divert his attention from Hungary towards elsewhere (for example Persia or the Western Mediterranean) for a longer period of time, which abolishes the Ottoman existential threat in this critical timeperiod, when the forts could be modernised and reinforced. Ofcourse smaller incursions, raids and some proxy wars in Wallachia and Moldavia would/could still occur.

But lets say that somehow this happened. Hungary is still weakened by the raiding in the southern border area which will still be devasteted. Further I have read several times that Mathias overtaxed the country which was at this point pretty exhausted - seeing the wealth of some of the leading magnates (Tamás Bakócz for example) i dont necesserily agree. For your POD to have a significant impact you will have to keep the king strong as well or you will end up with a Poland 2.0 just earlier.

Bakócz and the other magnates became that rich only after Matthias' death, during the Jagiellons, who were quite imcompetent to say the least. I don't think Maximilian would allow such levels of degradation of the royal power. I already talked about the taxproblem. Yes the Southern border areas are still devastated, but compared to OTL, that's no more, than a minor nuisance, while the constant clashes could keep the men of the southern forts well-experienced, which can only help.

Than there is the reformation - OTL it was pretty infuential in Hungary. OTOH you wont have independent Transylvania so the hungarian magnates dont have outside backing. Another important factor is that with Hungary intact the Ottoman threat wont be viewed as that threatening as OTL by the other HRE states so maybe less help from there.

I already expressed my view on the spread of protestantism in Hungary above, I don't think there would be a Bohemia level religious problem in Hungary. Also, historically, Hungary was almost always quite accepting towards other religions and beliefs, so that's also a reason, why I think, that there won't be a problem. I think until the Long Turkish War, the effort of the HRE states were abysmal anyway, and I don't think that anything similar to that war would take place in this sceniario, because of the different geographical conditions of the battleground.

In a 30 years war analogue I can see the protestant nobility of Hungary revolting like the bohemians.

Maybe to some minor scales, there could be some revolts, but even OTL, when a properly led Transylvanian army was aiding the Czechs, the Habsburgs could still overcome them, so in my proposed sceniario, these revolts could pose even less danger to them. Atleast I think so.
 
Some new questions:
If Venice loses Dalmatia to the Habsburgs in the War of The League of Cambrai, how much would that affect the decline of Venice? Would it accelerate it significantly? How could all of this affect the latter War of Cyprus and the Battle of Lepanto in particular? Even OTL, the battle wasn't an one-sided affair, and even by having only a little fewer ships could mean Ottoman victory. With a Turkish victory, the idea of Ottoman naval invincibilty would live on longer, while the decline of Venetian naval power would be even faster. Could all of this lead to the danubian Habsburgs taking interest in naval affairs? Dalmatia presents them some ship-building capabilities, while they have to spend much less on the defense of Hungary, since the line of forts defending Hungary is much shorter and geostrategically much better positioned compared to OTL, even though modernisation could demand investment there as well though. However since TTL the entirety of Hungary is held by the Habsburgs, they have much more resources to plan with. So what do you think?
 
So what do you think, what could possibly happen, if Emperor Maximilian is elected as King of Hungary?

For POD, let's say he marries Beatrix of Aragonia, the widow of Matthias and makes a compromise with Matthias's bastard son, John Corvinus, who would become the ban of several Southern banates.

How could things play out? What could happen to Bohemia? More than half of it were in Matthias' possession at the time, he was King of Bohemia as well. Would Maximilian claim that title as well, would he fight for it? Maybe a try to oust Vladislaus from Bohemia Proper, uniting the whole Lands of Crown of St. Wenceslaus?
What about later matters? How would Maximilian's to grandson inherit these realms? And what about the Turks?
Please share with me your thoughts!

Does this mean an earlier Austria post-1739? Lots of opportunities and butterflies. Will Charles V become king later in his life as well?

Hungary is spared the destruction of war OTL between the Ottomans. Although Transylvania and/or Southern Hungary will feel the raids and will depopulate due to warfare. Maximilian has more resources to keep Hungary away from the Turks.

Depending on who will rule Hungary and Bohemia, reformation may hit Hungary even less.
 
Does this mean an earlier Austria post-1739?
Borderwise? More or less, yeah, but with some additional territories like Belgrade and surroundings and third/half of modern day Bosnia-Hercegovina. The town of Severin is worth to mention as well. (I wouldn't call it Austria though, since that was just a component of the Danubian Monarchy.)
Lots of opportunities and butterflies. Will Charles V become king later in his life as well?
Charles is likely to become king of Hungary and Bohemia imo, but it's likely, that there will be an OTL-esque agreement between Ferdinand and Charles, which puts Ferdinand in charge in Austria, Bohemia and Hungary.
Hungary is spared the destruction of war OTL between the Ottomans. Although Transylvania and/or Southern Hungary will feel the raids and will depopulate due to warfare. Maximilian has more resources to keep Hungary away from the Turks.
Yep.
Depending on who will rule Hungary and Bohemia, reformation may hit Hungary even less.
OTL Hungary became almost exclusively protestant, due to the collapse of the church, civil war and whatnot, and only turned back Catholic due to the successes of the Counter-Reformation and the efforts of Archbishop Pázmány Péter, so Hungary being less protestant is a given, imo.
 
Top