What could the Japanese have done to maximise the impact of the Pearl Harbor attack, or an alternative equivalent, and what would its impact have been?
In for a penny, in for a pound, so throw the lot in. Use every carrier that can be put into service. IJN has 68 fleet submarines in Dec. 1941. Position the subs around the port to kill anything that moves.Perhaps add more carriers to the force and conduct a 3rd Strike intended to take out the Fuel storage and other facilities - ie drydock
And what would that do to their other offensives? It isn't like they had a massive resource pool. Greater emphasis at Pearl means a lack elsewhere, maybe a fatal lack.In for a penny, in for a pound, so throw the lot in. Use every carrier that can be put into service. IJN has 68 fleet submarines in Dec. 1941. Position the subs around the port to kill anything that moves.
One possibility that is sometimes mentioned is for the US to detect the attack shortly beforehand, so that the fleet sorties (and is thus in significantly deeper water when the first strike hits). Ships that are sunk thus can't be raised (OTL, basically all the useful ones were) and most of their crews go down with them (instead of OTL, when most of the crewmen survived even if their ships sunk).
It still won't win the war, but it will be an even nastier butcher's bill.
They succeeded beyond their greatest hopes. It would have been better if the carriers had been in port, but the Kido Butai orders expected 8 capital ships, 4 BB & 4 CV (the U.S. only had 3 CV assigned to the Pacific Fleet, this indicates just how weak the IJN's Intel actually was) and specified that any battleships were to be hit first (Kido Butai Order #3), followed by carriers. Second wave was dedicated to aircraft and aircraft hangers. No other targets were to be struck. If conditions warranted, any additional wave was to attack other shipping (the specifics are that any aircraft capable of carrying torpedoes should do so until the supply was expended, with carriers becoming the first priority of the potential 3rd wave, followed by cruisers and battleships.
There is always a lot of discussion regarding the fuel farms and the machine shops (along with the submarine base). These never appear on any IJN order list. Machine tools are extremely difficult to destroy (as the Combined Bomber Offensive in the ETO demonstrated time and again, even with far larger forces than those available to the IJN). The Tank Farms were far more difficult a target than is sometimes supposed, especially by the time of potential 3rd wave, when the air was full of oil smoke, and even if attacked the tanks themselves were all individually bermed, requiring a direct hit to even breech the tank (fire would be questionable, not impossible, but bunker fuel is a step above asphalt, and very hard to ignite).
Best thing they could have done was ensure the declaration of hostilities was in American hands at least a hour before the strike. At least then the American electorate would't have been quite as over the top due the "sneak attack".
Sure they would. The idea of carriers>>battleships wasn't really established yet, and having the ships on the move (instead of sitting ducks at port) would seem attractive even to anyone who did feel that way. Just ask the Prince of Wales and Repulse a few days later. Besides, from a more practical perspective, they would have support from land-based air from Hawaii, so it's not like they would have been defenseless.There's no way the US Navy would send out their battleships against the Japanese carriers without carriers of their own.
Sure they would. The idea of carriers>>battleships wasn't really established yet, and having the ships on the move (instead of sitting ducks at port) would seem attractive even to anyone who did feel that way. Just ask the Prince of Wales and Repulse a few days later. Besides, from a more practical perspective, they would have support from land-based air from Hawaii, so it's not like they would have been defenseless.
Which means, in the worst case, the Japanese are driven away from Pearl Harbor without achieving their objectives, at least as far as the US thinking would go. More generally, if they assumed the Japanese were preparing for a fleet battle (and remember, the exact specifics of the Japanese fleet likely wouldn't be known at first detection, only that it was large), they'd certainly want their ships underway, if only to prevent being trapped in port.I'm still not convinced. The standard-type battleships at Pearl Harbor had a top speed of 21 knots, while the slowest carrier in the Kido Butai, Kaga, had a top speed of 28 knots.
Which means, in the worst case, the Japanese are driven away from Pearl Harbor without achieving their objectives, at least as far as the US thinking would go. More generally, if they assumed the Japanese were preparing for a fleet battle (and remember, the exact specifics of the Japanese fleet likely wouldn't be known at first detection, only that it was large), they'd certainly want their ships underway, if only to prevent being trapped in port.
What could the Japanese have done to maximise the impact of the Pearl Harbor attack, or an alternative equivalent, and what would its impact have been?
Unlike OTL practice, carriers did not fly off all their aircraft before entering port. The majority of the aircraft would have been in the hangers, helpless. The landing evolution wasn't worth the effort in peacetime. The pilots, at least most of them, along with many of the crew would either be in Honolulu or in their racks nursing hangovers the size of Montana (same as the rest of the fleet). You didn't have to go off base to get a few cold malty beverages, not if you were an officer, there was an O Club on base (probably an NCO and enlisted club as well). You might not be able to get as hammered on base as off, but you could be very, very relaxed.Have anyone thought of this: If the carriers are in port, so are the pilots and aircrafts. More important, so is Halsey. Since he already was at a war mentality apperantly he would only allow half the pilots to have shore leave on Saturday and have some of the pilots up at sunlight just to have them get used to fly in the morning just in case there was a war. Maybe Halsey would even man some of the AAs on the carriers for a exercise every morning. Calbear, your opinion?