WI: Matthew C. Perry's Expedition led to invasion of mainland Japan.

I tried searching for a past forum on this topic but essentially, what do you believe would've occurred if Japan refused to treat with Perry, leading to invasion from US Naval Forces in 1853/54. Would the superior technology of the US Forces be able to carry them to a permanent foothold in the Japanese isles or would the superior numbers force them back to the sea?
 
I doubt the US would try an actual invasion; more likely a bombardment (easily doable, and humiliating for the shogunate) and maybe a quick raid to burn some of the offending forts. The US expedition to Korea in the 1870s is an instructive example.
 
If the US did try to invade Japan, the superior numbers might have forced them back unless there were reinforcements.

And news of a potential US invasion of Japan might also have triggered a colonial race to Japan involving Britain, France and Russia.
 
I tried searching for a past forum on this topic but essentially, what do you believe would've occurred if Japan refused to treat with Perry, leading to invasion from US Naval Forces in 1853/54. Would the superior technology of the US Forces be able to carry them to a permanent foothold in the Japanese isles or would the superior numbers force them back to the sea?
A few artillery is enough to set Tokyo - historically a timber-based city - alight. Although if necessary I think the US was prepared for a sorta-prolonged battle, unlike for Korea - they did bring out the big ships.
 
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