WI: Mary Tudor (Henry VIII's daughter) had fled the country in 1535?

I was reading Mary Tudor: England's First Queen by Anne Whitelock and noticed an interesting POD. In between 1534 and 1536 there were plans to move the princess to the court at Brussels. So, if these plans went through, what would the outcome be? How would Henry VIII react (probably angrily) and would she ever get to the throne?

Mary-tudor.jpg
 
Well id imagine, if she/whoever wanted her too, achieved this, then Henry would lose it...at this point Edwards already around, so he has a male heir, but i can easily see him completely disowning Mary (again), and bumping Elizabeth up in the succession line...it does have quite alot of religious and political implications if he still dies on queue, or earlier...like a much more stable protestant succession, Henry defiantly wouldn't have joined Charles against France in the end (especially if Charles kicks a fuss about Mary, who might still marry Phillip, in a attempt for the Habsburgs to get England), probably a more isolated, or northern Europe, orientated England and who knows what else.

Whatever happens, it wont be good.
 
agreed Henry totally flips his shit, though in 1534-36 Anne Boleyn is still Queen, she was executed 19 May 1536, Jane Seymour marries the King 11 days latter, and gives birth to Edward VI 12 October 1537, Mary leaving had a lot to do with fear of what Anne Boleyn might do to her to protect Elizabeth's place, so how does Henry see Mary leaving, does it make him think he needs to double down the the Church issue and on his Marriage or that the need for a male heir to use against Mary is needed at once, I think it matters a lot when she leaves, before the death of Catherine of Aragon (8 January 1536) and the King starting his afar with Jane Seymour, before that point likely the former, while Henry's relationship with Anne was falling apart and it was becoming clear she wouldn't have a son, he was still unwilling to throw her over while Catherine lived, with-in months of her death Anne was out.

so Mary leaves before her mother dies, Henry doubles down, Anne might get knocked up and maybe this child is a live Prince, maybe she was just doomed as some historians think, whatever, likely Elizabeth is made (formally) Princess of Wales and set up there, Mary looses all titles and Henry never allows any one to speak of her again, she dies in court far from England and is all but forgotten to history

Mary leaves after Catherine's Death, Anne's fall starts nearly at once, the King Rushes to marry Jane, and she is knocked up nearly at once, maybe with a quicker TL she makes it through ok, or maybe she dies birthing a daughter this time, Elizabeth, always more disliked by Henry then Mary is even more disinherited then OTL, Henry never risks putting her in line or revoking her bastardy because ether move would put Mary's place in question, the Grays are heirs, maybe in TTL some of them are even men this time, who can say what might happen with Henry and Jane's children and its clear Henry never had any others (despite being married to a young horny girl and his last wife was knocked up nearly at once in her last marriage) so maybe there's no one left, or maybe Henry FitzRoy lives in TTL and is heir because he's male
 
Well id imagine, if she/whoever wanted her too, achieved this, then Henry would lose it...at this point Edwards already around, so he has a male heir, but i can easily see him completely disowning Mary (again), and bumping Elizabeth up in the succession line...it does have quite alot of religious and political implications if he still dies on queue, or earlier...like a much more stable protestant succession, Henry defiantly wouldn't have joined Charles against France in the end (especially if Charles kicks a fuss about Mary, who might still marry Phillip, in a attempt for the Habsburgs to get England), probably a more isolated, or northern Europe, orientated England and who knows what else.

Whatever happens, it wont be good.

Edward was not born at this point, Anne Boleyn was still queen. But I do agree that, in religious terms at least, England would definitely turn into a more Protestant country. Mary would also be taken out of the line of succession, but I doubt that she would marry Phillip (who was age 7-9 at this point). She actually might marry Charles V, who (if Isabella f Portugal's death is as OTL) would be eligible by 1539/1540. Just food for thought.
 
Edward was not born at this point, Anne Boleyn was still queen. But I do agree that, in religious terms at least, England would definitely turn into a more Protestant country. Mary would also be taken out of the line of succession, but I doubt that she would marry Phillip (who was age 7-9 at this point). She actually might marry Charles V, who (if Isabella f Portugal's death is as OTL) would be eligible by 1539/1540. Just food for thought.

nothing in it for Charles, why marry her? piss Henry off like nothing else and close England off as an anti-French ally for any future fight while Henry (and his heir whoever that is) lives
 
Edward was not born at this point, Anne Boleyn was still queen. But I do agree that, in religious terms at least, England would definitely turn into a more Protestant country. Mary would also be taken out of the line of succession, but I doubt that she would marry Phillip (who was age 7-9 at this point). She actually might marry Charles V, who (if Isabella f Portugal's death is as OTL) would be eligible by 1539/1540. Just food for thought.

Ah i though this was referring to a later date, after 37...read it wroung x3
 
Well I think a lot of you are underestimating Mary and her mother's popularity here. According to the biography Catherine of Aragon by Giles Tremlett, there was serious talk of the Emperor invading England to depose Henry and make Mary Queen, and of course free his aunt. Imperial Ambassador Chapuys estimated that most of the country was against Henry and Anne Boleyn, including many ranking nobles, and only needed the Emperor to invade to trigger an uprising. Even if he's overestimating, the fact is large sections of the population was opposed to Henry's religious changes, divorce of Queen Catherine and bastardizing of Princess Mary. Really it was shear luck that Catherine died when she did and that Anne was executed, if not there could have been a real civil war.

If Mary was to successfully flee to Brussels, then the rightful English heiress would be under the protection of the Emperor. This could be enough to spur Charles V into action, especially if Catherine of Aragon recovers. We could also see the Pope go farther then excommunicating Henry VIII, declaring him deposed and Mary the rightful Queen of England. I think Mary being on the continent would drastically change history.
 
Well I think a lot of you are underestimating Mary and her mother's popularity here. According to the biography Catherine of Aragon by Giles Tremlett, there was serious talk of the Emperor invading England to depose Henry and make Mary Queen, and of course free his aunt. Imperial Ambassador Chapuys estimated that most of the country was against Henry and Anne Boleyn, including many ranking nobles, and only needed the Emperor to invade to trigger an uprising. Even if he's overestimating, the fact is large sections of the population was opposed to Henry's religious changes, divorce of Queen Catherine and bastardizing of Princess Mary. Really it was shear luck that Catherine died when she did and that Anne was executed, if not there could have been a real civil war.

If Mary was to successfully flee to Brussels, then the rightful English heiress would be under the protection of the Emperor. This could be enough to spur Charles V into action, especially if Catherine of Aragon recovers. We could also see the Pope go farther then excommunicating Henry VIII, declaring him deposed and Mary the rightful Queen of England. I think Mary being on the continent would drastically change history.

two things, Catherine was always against an attack on England, and second Chapuys is hardly a disinterested party, he loathed Anne and worshipped Catherine, for him it was totally personal

unpopular he may have been, hard to say, but we don't see any uprising against him or Anne, no its not till the Pilgrimage of Grace (after Anne's death) there's an attack on Henry and its not about Mary or Catherine, at all, in fact Jane was seen as a more catholic wife

last Charles in 1536 was up to his balls in Italy fighting wars, a full Attack in England was never in the cards
 
two things, Catherine was always against an attack on England, and second Chapuys is hardly a disinterested party, he loathed Anne and worshipped Catherine, for him it was totally personal

unpopular he may have been, hard to say, but we don't see any uprising against him or Anne, no its not till the Pilgrimage of Grace (after Anne's death) there's an attack on Henry and its not about Mary or Catherine, at all, in fact Jane was seen as a more catholic wife

last Charles in 1536 was up to his balls in Italy fighting wars, a full Attack in England was never in the cards

I disagree. First of all, I agree that Chapuys was biased but other ambassadors reported the same thing. The French and I think another envoy heavily implied that the King and the "great whore" was very unpopular and that an uprising might be in the cards. I'll have to find the exact passages, but at one point the French ambassador was also supportive of an invasion in favor of Catherine and Mary, so the idea existed in other nations as well.

Second, Catherine may have been against it but she also heavily feared for her and her daughter's safety, so she could be talked into supporting an invasion or her supporters could imply that she would back one.

Third, the pilgrimage of grace DID involve Mary, as one of their demands was for Mary to be declared legitimate and reinstated as heiress. So that in itself is testament to her popularity. If Mary is safely in the continent and openly called for the restoration of the Catholic religion (I can't see her openly being against her father) then I can guess that any uprising would have more supporters and possible foreign aid.

Fourth, the POD is in between 1534 and 1536 not just '36, so if she flees early enough, then the Emperor could reasonably be spurred into action. Charles V gave verbal support to his cousin, but was always reluctant to go further, as in military support. However, Mary suddenly appearing in Brussels, no doubt the rallying point for opposition to Henry VIII, would change things up (think an earlier, more popular Jacobite movement). No doubt Pope Paul III would support her, as would other Catholic Sovereigns, even if its just as a weapon against England and Henry VIII. Now the Emperor always saw himself as the Protector of the Catholic Church, and wanted to mainly fight the heretics of the North and the infidels of the East, but was stopped from doing so because of France. Here he has the chance to ensure England remains Catholic, which would appeal to his personality. I think push comes to shove and his only options are to openly look weak against a heretic or launch an invasion of England, he'll pick the later if only to save face.
 
28th of March, 1535: After much careful planning, the Catholic Princess Mary Tudor escapes from her home imprisonment. It was a thrilling escape; involving drugging her caretakers (read: prison guards) the Lady Clere and the Lady Shelton, fleeing Hatfield to the coast and leaving on a small boat to the Hasburg court in Brussels. This is the start of a big change in the world of the European royals, for better or worse.
 
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