Say the wee queen either dies in childhood, or AFTER her widowhood by François II but BEFORE she and Darnley get hitched. What happens then? Who succeeds in Scotland? Does Margaret Douglas simply replace her in the English succession?
In strict primogeniture the English succession would after Elizabeth have gone to Mary Stuart and Issue, Margaret Douglas and Issue and then the descendants of Mary Tudor Queen of France - of course both Mary and Margaret were excluded by statute under Henry VIII's will.
In Scotland - Mary was the last legitimate Stuart so the succession would have passed to the descendants of Mary daughter of James II - her principal heir was James Hamilton 2nd Earl of Arran (he was recognised as heir presumptive until Mary's son was born) - his claim was contested by Mathew Stewart Earl of Lennox - who was also descended from Mary daughter of James II (his supporters would claim that Arran's father's divorce and subsequent second marriage were invalid rendering Arran illegitimate). Hamilton would almost certainly succeed (though his son went mad in the early 1560s which would have complicated things a bit - also Hamilton tended to switch between Protestant and Catholic depending on the mood but at this period he was on the Protestant side)
Mad Jaime might well be excluded completely from the succession
Would King Arran need parliament to agree to it. Or would there still be clan lords willing to support a mad king - if only to increase their power?
Ithink Parliament might already be divided over the issue of Reform vs. Catholic, and then still further by support for the Lennox's vs. the Hamiltons, now it gets riven in two again by those who will support Arran disinheriting his eldest son? Fun days to sit in the Scots' estates.
Oh indeed, expect a potential civil war, whilst Elizabeth licks her lips and deals with her own headache
Would this perhaps be enough inducement to get Lizzie to marry, do you think? If she sees how Scotland gets torn apart by their own War of the Roses? Or at least to name a clear successor?
John would be interesting, especially if he ended up inheriting both Scotland and England....The ages are a bit complex to match up - Elizabeth's legal heir was Lady Catherine Grey (Countess of Hertford) however the marriage was ruled invalid and the children illegitimate (they were declared legitimate only under James I) until her death Catherine remains the heir however Elizabeth is never going to reverse her decision on the marriage - Lady Mary Grey was out of the question and her own marriage invalidated that - given that Elizabeth outlived either of them - she will probably be faced with two uncomfortable choices - a) the legal heir is Margaret Countess of Derby (b1540) and her sons Ferdinando (1559) and William (1561). Now given the death of Mary Stuart - most of the attention is going to be on Margaret (and she did end up in the tower under suspicion of being too interested in the succession at one point - if both boys grow up expecting to succeed then their marriages and future will be very different.
Margaret Douglas as we know was exceptionally ambitious - she will regard herself as the legal heir (and certainly Elizabeth herself was conscious of the right order of things) - so again significant attention on her and her sons and of course who they marry - Henry Lord Darnley (1545) and Charles Stuart (1555)
Arran now presumably King James VI - has loads of children in 1561/2 his daughters are married and all aged in their late teens early twenties or so - his sons - James (1532 and unmarried frequently a candidate for both Mary Stuart and Elizabeth but going mad at this point), John (unmarried and early to mid 20s), David (again unmarried and late teens), Claud (again unmarried and in his late teens).
The pressure on Elizabeth to marry will be just as intense I suspect just as it was until late in the reign when it was clear that she and most of her court were satisfied she was going to be succeeded by the Protestant Scots King - in this scenario much depends on who she prefers out of a pretty unappealing bunch - I wouldn't be surprised if Darnley gets caught up in some Catholic backed rebellion and meets his end on Tower Green although he and his family were pretty lukewarm on religion.
John would be interesting, especially if he ended up inheriting both Scotland and England....
Foreign or domestic? Since Felipe II will most likely throw any Habsburg/half-Habsburg princeling at London to see what sticks. Arran will no doubt continue with his wheeling and dealing with both sides, perhaps getting a French lady for Mad Jamie or a Habsburg archduchess for his second son (or vice versa)
Either. Now, could he reign as John II in both countries? Is John Balliol always counted as a Scottish king?And how might he do that? By marriage to Catherine Grey or Margaret Clifford?
Either. Now, could he reign as John II in both countries? Is John Balliol always counted as a Scottish king?