alternatehistory.com

Before she was married to the Prince of Orange, Mary II had another marriage idea being negotiated by her uncle, Charles II. He opposed the match with the Netherlands and instead Mary was to marry the eldest son of Louis XIV, also named Louis, a dull man known as le Grand Dauphin, not because of his glory, but his girth.

Charles II was negotiating the marriage during a time when he was more closely aligning his interests with France (at that period in time he was most certainly receiving a stipend from the French King), such as joining the French side of the Franco-Dutch War, at least until 1674. Joining the French was vastly unpopular at home and many were shocked at Charles II blatantly allying with Catholic France to attack the Protestant Dutch, at a time where many were in fear of France's expansion and saw the Dutch as an ally to stop such expansion. IOTL, Parliaments disapproval and English withdrawal from the Franco-Dutch war meant a French marriage was no longer politically sound, so Charles abandoned the venture and he and his brother James approved of the marriage to the Prince of Orange.

What if she married the Dauphin? I'd assume this scenario would need a better end to the Third Anglo-Dutch War if possible, which was essentially the English participation within the Franco-Dutch war. The big issue is while the French quickly invaded the Netherlands up to the water line, the English declaration of war caused the Estates General to raise the Dutch naval budget to 2.2 gilders to secure the seas and win an important victory over England. At this point in history the Dutch can outspend the English and have the more powerful navy, so I'm not sure what the English can do. Even if they score an important tactical victory over the Dutch and sank a vast portion of ships, there's the fact that the Dutch still have the larger budget. Yes, ships take time to build and sailors to man, but England at this point simply cannot compare.

I think this is the most crucial thing is a favorable settlement to Anglo-French interests in this war is crucial for Charles II to continue to see the Dauphin as a sounder choice. The Duke of York will agree with no issue, but there will still be a ruckus in parliament regarding the match, but there is very little they can do as they at this point in the stage as marriages of the royal family lie solely in the hands of the monarch; not to mention the Cavalier Parliament still reigns supreme through the 1670s, the longest and most loyal Parliament Charles II.

Or perhaps even with the same outcome as OTL it's possible for Charles II to just have bad judgement on the matter of the marriage? Seems unlikely given his cautious attitude, but given some of his mistakes (The Royal Declaration of Indulgence, selling of Dunkirk, ect) and more dubious actions such as openly taking money from France when his own annual income was insufficient and always far below the £1.2 million per annum he was promised in exchange for giving up the feudal dues his father had revived.

Another issue is Mary herself. Would she put up with the situation of going to France and converting to Catholicism, or would there be a row over it? She doesn't seem the type to put up a fight, and in the 1670s Charles II still lived while James II was married to Mary of Modena. There is still that slight chance of James having a son and Charles ordering it to be raised Protestant, just as his sisters were, so she may resign herself to the fate of such a marriage. Being Queen of France some day isn't a bad trade off, and while the Dauphin was dull, perhaps he and Mary would be a match.

The biggest question comes after the marriage, though. I assume the Popish Plot would be more hysterical than OTL because of the fact James II is a Catholic and the heiress presumptive is not ONLY Catholic but married to a Frenchman, but even worse, Louis XIV's heir. The hysteria would probably probably be even more multiplied if Mary gives birth to living children, especially a son during this period.

And what happens after Charles II dies? Things would certainly start to go off the rails once James II comes to power. Louis XIV will certainly have him eating out of his hand even more than Charles' was, and he'll definitely be emboldened than he was IOTL if he feels he has France's backing, which is only gonna lead to something exploding sooner. Do we have another round of the English Civil War breakout, or perhaps the "Glorious Revolution" is an invasion by William III alone? He would be behind Mary and Anne in the succession as he has Stuart blood; he may even have heirs ITTL as he's likely married to another Protestant Princess.

It'd be quite likely IMO his would be a Glorious Revolution to place the crown on Anne's head, with the Invitation to William being an invitation to chase William out and place Anne in her father's steed. Of course, she was quite the Tory supporter, which means despite his Stuart blood Anne might seek to name as her successor her half brother if she has no surviving issue as IOTL (which is possible, depends who she marries, although her OTL husband is quite likely). There's also the issue if France and England are so closely tied, though, that William's coup of sorts might be faced against French action. IOTL he used half of the Dutch standing army: 30,000 men to invade England, against Burgher's reservations. He'll likely have Habsburg support as per OTL, but it's still dangerous.

What unfolds next? Is it even possible for Mary II to come into the throne if married to the Dauphin? I find it incredibly unlikely unless involves some form of French intervention, but even so it makes little sense if her Catholic father has managed to sire a Catholic son with his wife. Of course Louis XIV was pretty greedy, so I could see him supporting Mary and his own son over James II, especially when his incompetence is shown. But I don't see her lasting: even if she tries to appear as a proper Queen and rule in her own right, the King of France will constrain her somehow. I don't see Mary ever coming to rule in this scenario, but the marriage is enough to have some interesting implications.
Top