WI: Mary II of England married Louis, le Grand Dauphin?

Before she was married to the Prince of Orange, Mary II had another marriage idea being negotiated by her uncle, Charles II. He opposed the match with the Netherlands and instead Mary was to marry the eldest son of Louis XIV, also named Louis, a dull man known as le Grand Dauphin, not because of his glory, but his girth.

Charles II was negotiating the marriage during a time when he was more closely aligning his interests with France (at that period in time he was most certainly receiving a stipend from the French King), such as joining the French side of the Franco-Dutch War, at least until 1674. Joining the French was vastly unpopular at home and many were shocked at Charles II blatantly allying with Catholic France to attack the Protestant Dutch, at a time where many were in fear of France's expansion and saw the Dutch as an ally to stop such expansion. IOTL, Parliaments disapproval and English withdrawal from the Franco-Dutch war meant a French marriage was no longer politically sound, so Charles abandoned the venture and he and his brother James approved of the marriage to the Prince of Orange.

What if she married the Dauphin? I'd assume this scenario would need a better end to the Third Anglo-Dutch War if possible, which was essentially the English participation within the Franco-Dutch war. The big issue is while the French quickly invaded the Netherlands up to the water line, the English declaration of war caused the Estates General to raise the Dutch naval budget to 2.2 gilders to secure the seas and win an important victory over England. At this point in history the Dutch can outspend the English and have the more powerful navy, so I'm not sure what the English can do. Even if they score an important tactical victory over the Dutch and sank a vast portion of ships, there's the fact that the Dutch still have the larger budget. Yes, ships take time to build and sailors to man, but England at this point simply cannot compare.

I think this is the most crucial thing is a favorable settlement to Anglo-French interests in this war is crucial for Charles II to continue to see the Dauphin as a sounder choice. The Duke of York will agree with no issue, but there will still be a ruckus in parliament regarding the match, but there is very little they can do as they at this point in the stage as marriages of the royal family lie solely in the hands of the monarch; not to mention the Cavalier Parliament still reigns supreme through the 1670s, the longest and most loyal Parliament Charles II.

Or perhaps even with the same outcome as OTL it's possible for Charles II to just have bad judgement on the matter of the marriage? Seems unlikely given his cautious attitude, but given some of his mistakes (The Royal Declaration of Indulgence, selling of Dunkirk, ect) and more dubious actions such as openly taking money from France when his own annual income was insufficient and always far below the £1.2 million per annum he was promised in exchange for giving up the feudal dues his father had revived.

Another issue is Mary herself. Would she put up with the situation of going to France and converting to Catholicism, or would there be a row over it? She doesn't seem the type to put up a fight, and in the 1670s Charles II still lived while James II was married to Mary of Modena. There is still that slight chance of James having a son and Charles ordering it to be raised Protestant, just as his sisters were, so she may resign herself to the fate of such a marriage. Being Queen of France some day isn't a bad trade off, and while the Dauphin was dull, perhaps he and Mary would be a match.

The biggest question comes after the marriage, though. I assume the Popish Plot would be more hysterical than OTL because of the fact James II is a Catholic and the heiress presumptive is not ONLY Catholic but married to a Frenchman, but even worse, Louis XIV's heir. The hysteria would probably probably be even more multiplied if Mary gives birth to living children, especially a son during this period.

And what happens after Charles II dies? Things would certainly start to go off the rails once James II comes to power. Louis XIV will certainly have him eating out of his hand even more than Charles' was, and he'll definitely be emboldened than he was IOTL if he feels he has France's backing, which is only gonna lead to something exploding sooner. Do we have another round of the English Civil War breakout, or perhaps the "Glorious Revolution" is an invasion by William III alone? He would be behind Mary and Anne in the succession as he has Stuart blood; he may even have heirs ITTL as he's likely married to another Protestant Princess.

It'd be quite likely IMO his would be a Glorious Revolution to place the crown on Anne's head, with the Invitation to William being an invitation to chase William out and place Anne in her father's steed. Of course, she was quite the Tory supporter, which means despite his Stuart blood Anne might seek to name as her successor her half brother if she has no surviving issue as IOTL (which is possible, depends who she marries, although her OTL husband is quite likely). There's also the issue if France and England are so closely tied, though, that William's coup of sorts might be faced against French action. IOTL he used half of the Dutch standing army: 30,000 men to invade England, against Burgher's reservations. He'll likely have Habsburg support as per OTL, but it's still dangerous.

What unfolds next? Is it even possible for Mary II to come into the throne if married to the Dauphin? I find it incredibly unlikely unless involves some form of French intervention, but even so it makes little sense if her Catholic father has managed to sire a Catholic son with his wife. Of course Louis XIV was pretty greedy, so I could see him supporting Mary and his own son over James II, especially when his incompetence is shown. But I don't see her lasting: even if she tries to appear as a proper Queen and rule in her own right, the King of France will constrain her somehow. I don't see Mary ever coming to rule in this scenario, but the marriage is enough to have some interesting implications.
 
Interesting indeed.
I'd presumed that 'le Grand Dauphin' was labelled "grand" later on, by comparison to his [OTL] son, 'le Petit Dauphin', as a way of indicating the line of succession when (as then) the king's heir himself had an adult heir.
 
Assuming a Glorious Revolution analogue, I don't think William is going to invade just to put Anne on the throne. Whatever the prior prospectus of the opposition, it doesn't really matter; I suspect that even without Mary, William would take the same line he did IOTL after the invasion and demand the throne. Nobody would be terribly happy about this, but, well, just as in OTL, William has an army and they don't, and James still needs to be prevented from a return - with James' son-in-law being the French Dauphin, that would be an even bigger fear here than IOTL. William at least has Stuart blood in him. As a quid pro quo, Anne would be named heir, possibly even in the event of William having legitimate current or future issue. A Jacobite succession is, needless to say, totally out of the question in these circumstances.
 
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Well this might also have an effect on who Anne will end up marrying. Maybe William and Anne will be married to each other instead?

Also about the line of William, what do you expect? IMHO this is a very reasonable request, since he also takes the risks. Why on earth would he invade, if he doesn't end up on the throne? From his personal perspective, anything less probably isn't worth it; though the Dutch Republic would have welcomed a less Pro-French England & Scotland.
 
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Well this might also have an effect on who Anne will end up marrying. Maybe William and Anne will be married to each other instead?

It's certainly possible, but I wonder if Anne might be just a bit too young for William. Unless of course he's prepared to wait a few years for what would undoubtedly be a good political match - though not as good as Mary. Though would Charles be interested in such a marriage ITTL? All in all, I'd say it was possible, but unlikely.

Something else which occurs: if Mary has similar troubles to OTL in conceiving, that will seriously impact on the French succession. I guess the chances of the House of Orleans inheriting somewhere along the line go up quite appreciably ITTL. (That would be no bad thing for France) The Spanish succession question would also be seriously effected if Mary encounters her OTL problems.
 
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IIRC Mary got pregnant soon after she married stadtholder William III, but she miscarried and additionally had an illness; afterwards she was never able to conceive again. So maybe, if this doesn't happen, this could be prevented.

Regarding a marriage, well IOTL they also agreed to the match between William and Mary, but that also depended on developments, both domestically and in other European nations.
 
In TTL, if Mary of Modena has only daughters, then OTL’s Mary II is heir to her father’s thrones and Louis XIV would have been patient enough not to do anything that might endanger her succession. In TTL, Louis XIV might even allow Mary to remain Protestant so long as her children are raised Catholic. It should be kept in mind how valuable having a neutral Britain would be in TTL to France in the pending War of the Spanish Succession. If James II were to die in 1701 in TTL, then Mary would be able to keep Britain out of any wars over the Spanish empire, and I doubt an alliance of the Dutch Republic and Austria would be able to defeat Louis XIV without British help. OTL’s William III would probably attempt to seize the throne in TTL, but keep in mind that in OTL, the Immortal Seven had expressed that if William didn’t invade England, they would still revolt against James II and possibly establish a republic. In TTL, Louis XIV most likely would have been supporting a “French” party of British nobles (including OTL’s Duke of Marlbourough) at both Court and in Parliament in order to have a base of support for Mary. This party might be enough to maintain James II on his throne but considering James’s political skills I doubt it.
 
Assuming James II keeps the throne until death AND James Francis Edward isn't born (both big assumptions) then this would have the potential to create a massive state. A personal union between England, Scotland, Ireland and France! How would this even work? Would a first son inherit France and a second son get Britain and Ireland?

If the Prince of Wales IS born (James Francis Edward I mean) then I wonder if William would actually invade? If Anne is married to a different person other than William himself I can't see him getting involved. OTL part of his reasons was defending his wife's rights. Without that, if William invades, it would be an ACTUAL invasion (though OTL was an actual invasion as well, people just ignore it) not an invitation intervention.
 
Assuming James II keeps the throne until death AND James Francis Edward isn't born (both big assumptions) then this would have the potential to create a massive state. A personal union between England, Scotland, Ireland and France! How would this even work? Would a first son inherit France and a second son get Britain and Ireland?
If it might lead to a personal union with France, surely the anti-Catholic party would freak out? OTL saw plenty of anger at the revocation of the Edict of Nantes. If Louis XIV still does that (and I expect he will), the odds of a personal union with France seem dim.

As for William of Orange, he would surely do whatever he could to prevent a union between France and England et al. Whether that means pressing his claim or supporting Commonwealth 2.0, I'm not sure.
 
If Mary II had married the Grand Dauphin, the marriage treaty would have likely insisted that a second son of their marriage would have succeeded to the thrones of England, Scotland, and Ireland upon Mary’s death. In TTL, the attitude of Mary’s son toward religion would be a critical factor to the Bourbons’ ability to establish their dynasty in her kingdoms. However, I am surprised that no one has mentioned the fact that in TTL, the Grand Dauphin is still (by virtue of the succession laws in Spain at that time) the heir to Charles II of Spain. The mother of the Dauphin renunciation of the Spanish throne was predicated on a dowry that was never paid and thus considered invalid by Louis XIV. So in TTL, the children of the Grand Dauphin and Mary would be in the line of succession of both France and Spain, and both James II and Mary II would have a vested interest in seeing their descendents succeed Charles II of Spain. Assuming James II has no son in TTL, OTL’s William III of England would mostly likely attempt to remove James II from the throne before Charles II of Spain’s death in order to prevent the Bourbon empire of Britain, Ireland, Spain, and France from forming. I am sure Emperor Leopold I would also lose sleep at the thought of such a formidable collection of countries ruled by the Bourbons.
 
If Mary II had married the Grand Dauphin, the marriage treaty would have likely insisted that a second son of their marriage would have succeeded to the thrones of England, Scotland, and Ireland upon Mary’s death. In TTL, the attitude of Mary’s son toward religion would be a critical factor to the Bourbons’ ability to establish their dynasty in her kingdoms. However, I am surprised that no one has mentioned the fact that in TTL, the Grand Dauphin is still (by virtue of the succession laws in Spain at that time) the heir to Charles II of Spain. The mother of the Dauphin renunciation of the Spanish throne was predicated on a dowry that was never paid and thus considered invalid by Louis XIV. So in TTL, the children of the Grand Dauphin and Mary would be in the line of succession of both France and Spain, and both James II and Mary II would have a vested interest in seeing their descendents succeed Charles II of Spain. Assuming James II has no son in TTL, OTL’s William III of England would mostly likely attempt to remove James II from the throne before Charles II of Spain’s death in order to prevent the Bourbon empire of Britain, Ireland, Spain, and France from forming. I am sure Emperor Leopold I would also lose sleep at the thought of such a formidable collection of countries ruled by the Bourbons.


I almost forgot about that:eek:. But yes, Mary and le Grand Dauphin's children would be in line to France, England, Scotland, Ireland and the Spanish Empire. So France would go to the first born, the British Isles to the second son, and the Spanish inheritance to the third son. I think it might be better to assume James II has a son. As cool as a massive Bourbon empire would be, it would be very difficult to pull off. If all the thrones went to the same person, however, it would be a Bourbon version of Charles V's empire.
 
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