WI Mary I had been imprisoned in 1553?

Not that I want to take away from @Gwrtheyrn Annwn's wonderful 'Grey Dawn', but I have been wondering lately what might have happened if Northumberland and Pembroke had managed to secure Mary in 1553, rather than Robert Dudley bungling the whole thing. Would Jane have been able to keep her throne? Or would the country have risen to free Mary, or even backed Elizabeth in the place of her elder half-sister, rather than settle for the Dudley yoke?

Thoughts?
 
Not that I want to take away from @Gwrtheyrn Annwn's wonderful 'Grey Dawn', but I have been wondering lately what might have happened if Northumberland and Pembroke had managed to secure Mary in 1553, rather than Robert Dudley bungling the whole thing. Would Jane have been able to keep her throne? Or would the country have risen to free Mary, or even backed Elizabeth in the place of her elder half-sister, rather than settle for the Dudley yoke?

Thoughts?
Elizabeth would have been likely kept out of the power struggle and I am not sure about a rebellion in name of Mary would start or be successful here. I think likely in any case who Northumberland was ruthless (and Protestant) enough to have Mary executes for conspiracy and treason if a rebellion in her name will start...
 
Yeah, I think he probably was. And I suspect Jane and Katherine Grey would be 'encouraged' to consummate their marriages as quickly as possible, particularly Jane. The quicker there is a Protestant heir in the cradle, the better...
 
Yeah, I think he probably was. And I suspect Jane and Katherine Grey would be 'encouraged' to consummate their marriages as quickly as possible, particularly Jane. The quicker there is a Protestant heir in the cradle, the better...
Well if Mary is executed for treason all the main remaining potential heiresses for the crown (Jane, Katherine, Elizabeth) are all Protestant
 
Well if Mary is executed for treason all the main remaining potential heiresses for the crown (Jane, Katherine, Elizabeth) are all Protestant

True, but Northumberland will want it to have his blood, so it would have to be Jane and Guilford's son, really...
 
Not that I want to take away from @Gwrtheyrn Annwn's wonderful 'Grey Dawn', but I have been wondering lately what might have happened if Northumberland and Pembroke had managed to secure Mary in 1553, rather than Robert Dudley bungling the whole thing. Would Jane have been able to keep her throne? Or would the country have risen to free Mary, or even backed Elizabeth in the place of her elder half-sister, rather than settle for the Dudley yoke?

Thoughts?

If Elizabeth is still at liberty, she may raise rebellion in Mary's name.

After all, under the new regime her future is just as uncertain as Mary's, and claiming the throne herself would divide the opposition to Dudley. And her later relations with Mary will be better. .
 
I hadn't thought of that. Although, would a survivor like Elizabeth really want to stick her neck out like that? Especially given Mary and her supporters view her as a harlots daughter, possibly with loose morals herself, depending on how widely known the Thomas Seymour scandal is. Would she not be better off playing both sides?
 
Few points: Edward VI's overriding aim was to protect his religious legacy and to appeal to his dogmatic protestant view of the role of women - most historians agree that the device was definitely his thinking rather than something suggested to him. Initially it left the throne to the heirs male of his cousin Frances and to the heirs male of her daughter's excluding women completely - it was amended later to leave the throne to the Lady Jane and her heirs male - in other words his female cousins could inherit but they were the exception - women could only inherit or pass the throne in the absence of heirs male - in other words he was proposing a semi salic succession.
It is very debatable how keen John Dudley was on the device despite his son's marriage - he had been keen to improve relations with Mary during early 1553 - though he and a significant number of others agreed to the King's demands probably out of a mix of self interest and loyalty.

Now if Mary had died before Edward VI - then Edward might well have still pushed a device leaving the throne to the Lady Elizabeth's heirs male and then those of the Lady Frances and so on - though we know he was troubled by the bastardy of both his sisters.

Had Dudley got hold of Mary - holding her alive in comfortable confinement would have probably been enough in the short term, the aim would be to get Jane crowned and acknowledged - once on the throne it would be harder to unseat her, while Mary lives Elizabeth's claim is non-active and Elizabeth might be sensible enough to sulk in the country and bide her time. However Dudley is going to need to do something to prevent a Catholic rising (there were plenty of them around at this point) and foreign support for Mary - removing Mary leaves the far more marriagable Elizabeth as the heir under statute and she had a way about her with people even in her youth (she would also appeal to moderate Anglo-Catholics far more than the more radical Jane)
 
Few points: Edward VI's overriding aim was to protect his religious legacy and to appeal to his dogmatic protestant view of the role of women - most historians agree that the device was definitely his thinking rather than something suggested to him. Initially it left the throne to the heirs male of his cousin Frances and to the heirs male of her daughter's excluding women completely - it was amended later to leave the throne to the Lady Jane and her heirs male - in other words his female cousins could inherit but they were the exception - women could only inherit or pass the throne in the absence of heirs male - in other words he was proposing a semi salic succession.
It is very debatable how keen John Dudley was on the device despite his son's marriage - he had been keen to improve relations with Mary during early 1553 - though he and a significant number of others agreed to the King's demands probably out of a mix of self interest and loyalty.

Now if Mary had died before Edward VI - then Edward might well have still pushed a device leaving the throne to the Lady Elizabeth's heirs male and then those of the Lady Frances and so on - though we know he was troubled by the bastardy of both his sisters.

Had Dudley got hold of Mary - holding her alive in comfortable confinement would have probably been enough in the short term, the aim would be to get Jane crowned and acknowledged - once on the throne it would be harder to unseat her, while Mary lives Elizabeth's claim is non-active and Elizabeth might be sensible enough to sulk in the country and bide her time. However Dudley is going to need to do something to prevent a Catholic rising (there were plenty of them around at this point) and foreign support for Mary - removing Mary leaves the far more marriagable Elizabeth as the heir under statute and she had a way about her with people even in her youth (she would also appeal to moderate Anglo-Catholics far more than the more radical Jane)
Well Northumberland has another son who was quite close to Elizabeth. Unluckily said son was already married but if for some reason he was free Dudley would have both Protestant claimants as daughters-in-law...
 
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