WI: Marriages Without the Diplomatic Revolution

The Diplomatic Revolution which resulted in a Franco-Austrian rapprochement in the mid-18th century, saw five Habsburg-Bourbon marriages take place. But what if this hadn’t happened – maybe Britain-Hannover stays on the Austrian side or Austria and France make nice, but it doesn’t last (at least not long enough to enable more than one (if that) Habsburg-Bourbon marriage). Would this change much on the European chessboard? Or would the relative paucity of Catholic matches for the Habsburgs and the Bourbons force them into a ramshackle marital alliance?
 
One of the marriages that would be butterflied away would be Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette. Though a lot of their contemporaries tried to blame Antoinette for the revolution I don't actually think another bride would have made much difference. Unless there was a drastic change in government in the late 1770s/1780s then the revolution was probably going to happen anyway.

An interesting question is who Maria Theresa would have married her daughters to if France, Naples and Parma were not options. Could she have married one of her daughters to Stanislas Poniatowski to be Queen of Poland? Apart from that it would probably be the usual assortment of German rulers. The future Queen Maria of Portugal was available but she was a few years older than the Archdukes and also the Portuguese law did not allow a non national to become King.
 
One of the marriages that would be butterflied away would be Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette. Though a lot of their contemporaries tried to blame Antoinette for the revolution I don't actually think another bride would have made much difference. Unless there was a drastic change in government in the late 1770s/1780s then the revolution was probably going to happen anyway.

An interesting question is who Maria Theresa would have married her daughters to if France, Naples and Parma were not options. Could she have married one of her daughters to Stanislas Poniatowski to be Queen of Poland? Apart from that it would probably be the usual assortment of German rulers. The future Queen Maria of Portugal was available but she was a few years older than the Archdukes and also the Portuguese law did not allow a non national to become King.

From what I've read MT did offer (or she was courted by the Poles) to marry a daughter to the king of Poland (this would be Maria Elisabeth). And her eldest son was betrothed at varying points to Maria I of Portugal's youngest sister (a match to Maria was never considered), the last time after Josef's second wife died. The ship to carry Benedita to the Netherlands was built and everything when Josef declared that he wouldn't marry again.

As to Poland, Stanislas looked at Benedita or at Maria Elisabeth, but Ekaterina II meddled and blocked both marriages. The Saxon crown prince was betrothed to Marie Zéphyrine de France (eldest sister of Louis XVI) and then to Mme Clothilde, but eventually married a princess of Zweibrucken.

Louise-Élisabeth de France, duchess of Parma was key in arranging a match between Josef and Isabella of Parma, mostly cause she was trying to secure the Belgic crown for her husband. Her other ambition was for her younger (and favourite) daughter, Maria Luisa, to wed the duc de Bourgogne. She and her sister-in-law, Maria Amalie, came into conflict about Isabella's betrothal to Josef, since the latter wanted Josef to marry one of her daughters (Maria José or Maria Luisa); and she (Amalie) considered one of her daughters a better match for Bourgogne since they were royal, rather than the daughters of a mere duke.

And the dauphine also jumped on the bandwagon. She was as Austrophobe as any of the Mesdames, and had tried to arrange a double match with Poland - Bourgogne to Amalie (OTL Pfalzgräfin of Zweibrucken) and Zéphyrine/Clothilde to Friedrich August III - but both came to nothing.

In a way, without a diplomatic revolution, I could see the Bourbons turning into a hot-mess of inbreeding a century earlier. The Habsburgs might make some more marriages into the German ruling families - Welf (and it's Italian branch of d'Este), Wettin, Wittelsbach (maybe Amalie duchess of Parma gets to marry her sweetheart) etc, like Leopold II's sons did (Württemberg,Habsburg-d'Este, Wittelsbach, Nassau, Holstein/Romanov, Askanier, and contemplated matches with Baden (for Franz II and the duke of Teschen) and Prussia (for Franz Josef)).
 
One of the marriages that would be butterflied away would be Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette. Though a lot of their contemporaries tried to blame Antoinette for the revolution I don't actually think another bride would have made much difference. Unless there was a drastic change in government in the late 1770s/1780s then the revolution was probably going to happen anyway.

An interesting question is who Maria Theresa would have married her daughters to if France, Naples and Parma were not options. Could she have married one of her daughters to Stanislas Poniatowski to be Queen of Poland? Apart from that it would probably be the usual assortment of German rulers. The future Queen Maria of Portugal was available but she was a few years older than the Archdukes and also the Portuguese law did not allow a non national to become King.

Another Habsburg bride wouldn't make much difference, but I do think there'd be a lot less animosity to a bride that wasn't from the hated Habsburg family in France.

On a high level, to avoid this revolution happening, you'd have to have Britain be a much better ally in the previous war. That itself would have huge ramifications.
 
One of the marriages that would be butterflied away would be Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette. Though a lot of their contemporaries tried to blame Antoinette for the revolution I don't actually think another bride would have made much difference. Unless there was a drastic change in government in the late 1770s/1780s then the revolution was probably going to happen anyway.

An interesting question is who Maria Theresa would have married her daughters to if France, Naples and Parma were not options. Could she have married one of her daughters to Stanislas Poniatowski to be Queen of Poland? Apart from that it would probably be the usual assortment of German rulers. The future Queen Maria of Portugal was available but she was a few years older than the Archdukes and also the Portuguese law did not allow a non national to become King.

While Antoinette wasn't to blame for the Revolution, she did unfortunately make a good representative of the entire aristocracy - or at least, her public image was a good representation (if not necessarily accurate).

The duke of Chablais (younger son of the duke of Savoy) was intended for Maria Christine, and was rather miffed when Mimi persuaded her depressed mother to let her marry for love instead. So, if such a thing still happens, maybe as an Austrian way of mending fences with Savoy, they allow for a younger daughter to marry the duke of Savoy's grandson (Carlo Emanuele IV). Maria Theresia was also interested in one of her daughters becoming queen of Poland at a point (can't remember when this was), so it's likely she marries one to Friedrich August III of Saxony (though Stanislas did come courting OTL; and any prospects of a Saxon match were ruined by Mimi marrying Prince Albrecht - his sister, the dauphine, as well as the kings of France and Prussia were very much against it (particularly what the dauphine saw as Mimi wearing the pants in the relationship)).

From what I've read MT did offer (or she was courted by the Poles) to marry a daughter to the king of Poland (this would be Maria Elisabeth). And her eldest son was betrothed at varying points to Maria I of Portugal's youngest sister (a match to Maria was never considered), the last time after Josef's second wife died. The ship to carry Benedita to the Netherlands was built and everything when Josef declared that he wouldn't marry again.

As to Poland, Stanislas looked at Benedita or at Maria Elisabeth, but Ekaterina II meddled and blocked both marriages. The Saxon crown prince was betrothed to Marie Zéphyrine de France (eldest sister of Louis XVI) and then to Mme Clothilde, but eventually married a princess of Zweibrucken.

Louise-Élisabeth de France, duchess of Parma was key in arranging a match between Josef and Isabella of Parma, mostly cause she was trying to secure the Belgic crown for her husband. Her other ambition was for her younger (and favourite) daughter, Maria Luisa, to wed the duc de Bourgogne. She and her sister-in-law, Maria Amalie, came into conflict about Isabella's betrothal to Josef, since the latter wanted Josef to marry one of her daughters (Maria José or Maria Luisa); and she (Amalie) considered one of her daughters a better match for Bourgogne since they were royal, rather than the daughters of a mere duke.

And the dauphine also jumped on the bandwagon. She was as Austrophobe as any of the Mesdames, and had tried to arrange a double match with Poland - Bourgogne to Amalie (OTL Pfalzgräfin of Zweibrucken) and Zéphyrine/Clothilde to Friedrich August III - but both came to nothing.

In a way, without a diplomatic revolution, I could see the Bourbons turning into a hot-mess of inbreeding a century earlier. The Habsburgs might make some more marriages into the German ruling families - Welf (and it's Italian branch of d'Este), Wettin, Wittelsbach (maybe Amalie duchess of Parma gets to marry her sweetheart) etc, like Leopold II's sons did (Württemberg,Habsburg-d'Este, Wittelsbach, Nassau, Holstein/Romanov, Askanier, and contemplated matches with Baden (for Franz II and the duke of Teschen) and Prussia (for Franz Josef)).

That would be an interesting wedding carrousel - Zephyrine/Clothilde to Friedrich August III (he didn't have surviving kids OTL, so it wouldn't affect things too much); maybe Maria Amalie or Maria Karoline of Austria to the duke of Savoy (if Mimi doesn't marry the duke of Chablais), and Maria Luisa of Parma/Maria Amalie of Saxony replacing Antoinette at the altar of Versailles' chapel royal. Maria Beatrice d'Este might replace Maria Amalie as duchess of Parma (which would lead to a change in Italian politics: Austria not dominating the north apart from the duchy of Milan and the grand duchy of Tuscany).

I must admit that I like the idea of the Habsburgs being more involved in Germany than in Italy. Josef maybe marrying Maria Josefa of Bavaria/Maria Elisabeth of Saxony as his first wife. I'm more partial to Maria Elisabeth, since Josef basically ruined her reputation OTL, and also for the fact that the Saxon girls of her generation seemed to be built for breeding (with the exception of the Bavarian electress, but I think the fault lay with the elector not her).

Another Habsburg bride wouldn't make much difference, but I do think there'd be a lot less animosity to a bride that wasn't from the hated Habsburg family in France.

On a high level, to avoid this revolution happening, you'd have to have Britain be a much better ally in the previous war. That itself would have huge ramifications.

I can't speak for Britain's alliance with Austria, but I do think you're right about anti-Habsburg feeling. Antoinette had the deck stacked against her before she even set foot on French soil. I do think though, that someone like Luisa of Parma would likewise make a poor match for Louis XVI (her dominance of Carlos IV, being the case in point). She wouldn't have had the same reputation as Antoinette (frivolous, shallow and spendthrift), but if it was seen that she ruled her husband and through him ruled France, it might do considerable harm to the monarchy. Unless she's actually capable in doing so. I wonder if there'd still be rumours about the paternity of her children (as there were about Louis XVI's OTL, and as there were about her own youngest (that they were the children of Godoy or her lover of the week)) though? Cause that might damage the monarchy even more than Antoinette's spending did.
 
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