WI Mark Antony killed at Mutina

Power can be extremely attractive once it's been experienced. These are Roman aristocrats, who assumed this kind of distinction was the only reason to live. And his pre-collapse governorships showed the man would take a good pile of cash, honor be-damned. One assumes Cicero (and latter Tiro) kept these and published them for a reason.
To be fair, the scenario I have been advocating has Brutus and Cassius not surviving. Also wasn't his minting of coins after the formation of the triumvirate? This isn't the case here, he's still operating technically under the legitimate authority of the senate.
 
This begs the question though, where was Agrippa at Mutina and at Philippi? Where was he when Octavians forces were beaten handily and his camp taken at Philippi?

Agrippa only seems to enter the scene in any significant light in Octavian's military actions during the war with Sextus Pompey and even then Octavian conducted his own operations that nearly resulted in his death or capture.

According to wikipedia, he actually helped Octavian levy troops in Campania in 43 and 44 BC. So it's most likely that he was with Octavian in Mutina and Philippi (since at Philippi, Pliny quotes Agrippa as an authority to Octavian's sickness), but he hasn't been promoted to a high enough ranked to be noticed. And he definitely played a role in the Perusian War. After all, Agrippa was with Octavian even before Caesar's assassination, was with him when Octavian went to Rome for the first time, and never left his side at all. And in the scenario laid out, Octavian would put his trusted friend in charge of his armies, especially without Antony as an ally. After all, after Antony went to the East, Agrippa emerged as his commander. In this scenario, without any ally, he would be thrust by his friend to a high command early on.
 
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According to wikipedia, he actually helped Octavian levy troops in Campania in 43 and 44 BC. So it's most likely that he was with Octavian in Mutina and Philippi (since at Philippi, Pliny quotes Agrippa as an authority to Octavian's sickness), but he hasn't been promoted to a high enough ranked to be noticed. And he definitely played a role in the Perusian War. After all, Agrippa was with Octavian even before Caesar's assassination, was with him when Octavian went to Rome for the first time, and never left his side at all. And in the scenario laid out, Octavian would put his trusted friend in charge of his armies, especially without Antony as an ally. After all, after Antony went to the East, Agrippa emerged as his commander. In this scenario, without any ally, he would be thrust by his friend to a high command early on.
How good of a commander was Agrippa early on and how much did he learn as he went along? Clearly he blundered massively at Philippi if we are to assume he was given a command. I'm not doubting that Octavian/Agrippa have the upper hand, just trying to discern how successful he might be at this early stage.
 
If Agrippa was at Mutina playing a role, it would also be a safe bet that a surviving Hirtius would notice him.
How good of a commander was Agrippa early on and how much did he learn as he went along? Clearly he blundered massively at Philippi if we are to assume he was given a command. I'm not doubting that Octavian/Agrippa have the upper hand, just trying to discern how successful he might be at this early stage.
Also a good point. It may well be we don't have to worry about Agrippa compensating for Octavian's poor military leadership around this time; if so, Agrippa would likely be the one to take over Octavian's forces in the immediate aftermath of his death, making his play in this all the more important. Assuming, of course, we go with the idea of a military draw killing young Caesar (or illness taking him before the battle, if that can't work).

CONSOLIDATE: Minor side note -- Antipater the Idumean was the poisoned the year of our PoD; if my guess is right, and he was killed later in the year, when Cassius was heading north to join Brutus, that might be butterflied TTL. In which case, if he is still alive when Hirtius shows up, he'll gladly switch sides to him along with Cleopatra, seeing as Cassius had put the squeeze on his kingdom.
 
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We've talked about some of the key Liberators individually, but what about more generally? What happens to the rest?

Casca and Cimber were already in the east, presumably with other minor assassins; so of them, the ones that don't fall with Cassius will be with Brutus.

And the ones in Italy? Well, we've established that Decimus could get Octavian's public forgiveness of sorts, so I'd say he could survive the wrath of Caesar's would be avengers. I'm guessing some other bit assassins might get the same deal. Cicero, though not one of the killers, will be similarly protected.

Others in Italy might not be so lucky -- Galba, Quintus Ligarius, Basilus and others who were targeted by the triumvarite otl may find themselves targeted by the mob when things in Italy get chaotic. (If so, you can be sure Fulvia will be doing her part to fan the flames.) The targeted conspirators who aren't killed will flee east.

Then Hirtius defeats Cassius.

So we could have a situation by 41 BC where the Caesarions who still want vengeance see their last remaining enemies in the legions of Marcus Brutus.

What does Brutus do now?

CONSOLIDATE:
Would this butterfly the reasons for his poisoning?
The guy who poisoned him was, iirc, one of the tax collectors Antipater employed on behalf of Cassius; when this guy came up short, Antipater had to intervene to save his life from the Roman's rage, and he held a grudge. My thinking was maybe he doesn't make his move if the guy his victim ignobly saved his life from is still in a position to threaten him or his area.
 
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