WI Mark Antony killed at Mutina

[John Fredrick Parker]

When his army was nearly destroyed at the Battle of Mutina, Mark Antony stood alone against pretty much everyone else of consequence in the Roman Empire; this was the time, after all, that Octavian and Cicero were working as allies (more or less). OTL, he managed to break out and regroup, then got Lepidus and Octavian to ally with him, thus creating the Second Triumvirate, drawing up a list of notable citizens to execute (including Cicero), and... well, we all know how that played out.

So what would have happened if Antony had fallen at this moment, with everyone still united against him? If the answer is "Octavian still rises to power", then how is his path changed? If it's "the republic (or its weak shadow, or what have you) has a chance of being preserved", then how would that be achieved? Or could something else entirely happen here?

 

[SlyDessertFox]

The answer relies on one crucial question: Do the consuls Pansa and Hurtius still die during the Mutina campaign?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

The answer relies on one crucial question: Do the consuls Pansa and Hurtius still die during the Mutina campaign?

Good question! Let's say Hurtius survives, but Pansa still dies of his wounds. (Incidentally, is it true that Hurtius got as far as Antony's tent OTL before he was killed? If so, maybe we can say he's the one who kills Antony.)

 

[James XI]

Assuming the question above is answered in the affirmative;

This period was Antony at his absolute best as a commander, even though it's often portrayed as a lull for him because it coincided with Octavian's rise to legitimacy. At Forum Gallorum he adopted a Napoleonic strategy that almost worked, taking on 8 legions with his 2, wiping out more than 5 legions and withdrawing in reasonably good order, though still heavily outnumbered. At Mutina he's facing greater than 2:1 odds and comes within a hair's breath of winning, killed both enemy consuls and retreated in good order. At Phillipi he alone defeated both Liberator wings, saving Octavian's life/legions and destroying the enemy army.

Because his enemies wrote his history he's often marginalized, but there's a lot of evidence that suggests he was a brilliant commander and pretty shrewd politician. His principle weakness seems to be that the above describe him in moments of crisis/action...when things subside to the day to day he grows restless, indolent and luxuriant.

All of this is to show how crucial he was to securing victory and securing the Caesarian dynasty. Remove him from the equation and, well...if Octavian pursues vengeance he's a lot more likely to lose, and I'm not sure he knows enough yet to understand that, especially if he's just beaten Antony. I don't see a commander of with him that can hold a candle to Antony; Salvidienus showed some promise and Agrippa would later emerge as a quality commander in his own right but neither are close to the Antony if this period. So, assuming Octavian pursues his uncle's killers, and assuming the showdown roughly approximates OTL, I say Cassius manages to deny him forage and supply (Antony's brilliant manoeuvring to force battle being absent) and he either fights with a depleted army at the time of his enemy's choosing or he patches up some kind of peace where the empire is either restored to something like a republic or divided into different warring states a la Diadocchi/Sengoku Jidai, with some state's republican, some monarchies, etc. This last bit might be my imagination running away with me, but I truly do see a chaos of epic proportions if Octavian stays his OTL course.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

If Hirtius survived then Octavian doesn't take control of the legions. With Antony out of the picture Octavians goose is cooked.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If Hirtius survived then Octavian doesn't take control of the legions. With Antony out of the picture Octavians goose is cooked.

Wait, so does this mean the republic is saved (if just for the present)? What happens with both Antony and Octavian out of the picture?

CONSOLIDATE: Related question -- what happens if our PoD is even simpler, and we just have Hirtius survive the battle? Is that enough to save the Octavian-Cicero led coalition, and doom the Antony camp? If so, how does Antony most likely to fall in this scenario?

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Octavian still has the problem of not being in command of the army. So war with Antony will continue. This puts Lepidus in a really tough spot. Antony is coming into Gaul so he and to make a decision, finish him off or ally with him. Lepidus likely attacks Antony, and probably defeats him. Antony is pretty much screwed in this scenario. And now with no Antony, Cicero and the senate have little need of Octavian. Octavian is anything but a gifted military commander, so he will be in a very weak position.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

One more question then -- since Octavian is still very young at this point, does he at least have promising political prospects.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

One more question then -- since Octavian is still very young at this point, does he at least have promising political prospects.

Well I mean, Cicero was not very subtle about his intentions to simply use Octavian to get rid of Antony and then turn on Octavian...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Well I mean, Cicero was not very subtle about his intentions to simply use Octavian to get rid of Antony and then turn on Octavian...

True; the only thing giving me pause in agreeing is that Cicero always (OTL) had such a bad track record at playing divide and conquer -- hell, Cato played that game* better than he did. And just because Mark Antony's dead, would that mean the Ceasarian faction crumbles? Or would they seek new leadership?

*Metellus Scipio was a Catonian, right?

 

[SlyDessertFox]

True; the only thing giving me pause in agreeing is that Cicero always (OTL) had such a bad track record at playing divide and conquer -- hell, Cato played that game* better than he did. And just because Mark Antony's dead, would that mean the Ceasarian faction crumbles? Or would they seek new leadership?

*Metellus Scipio was a Catonian, right?

What Caesarian faction though? Hirtius and Pansa were Caesar partisans, and yet they were loyal to the senate after his death. A post-Caesar murder Caesarian faction didn't really exist until the triumvirate.

 

[calvin1417]

So Octavian has no chance if mark Antony dies there? Intresting

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

The Republic by this point had almost completely collapsed, so the war emerges until some strongman emerges on top. The strongman is probably not Octavian, however, and the war will be going on for decades longer than IOTL.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Something else occurs to me -- Fulvia outlives Antony TTL, meaning first, she's thrice widowed now, and second, she might still cause trouble. Woukd she be in a position to remain active (marry another populares, meddle in politics, etc)?

And another thought -- if Hirtius survives (and Antony is defeated), then he is going to get a major prestige boost from this little war, likely becoming a major political figure in his own right in the years to come. Safe to say he's not an optimate (considering he spent most of his career supporting Ceasar up to this point), so that would be pretty interesting in its own right. Any thoughts on what kind of elder statesman he'd be?

Also, what becomes of the Liberators, particularly Brutus, Cassius, and other "Liberators"? At the time of our PoD, they're in exile from Rome, but in powerful positions in the east; does the victorious Republic find reconciliation with them, or do Octavian and other former Ceasarians push for retribution? @James XI mentioned the them, saying that if Octavian pursued revenge (and presumably ending up in a battle similar to Phillipi), he'd likely be defeated absent Antony's help; then again, if Octavian is the only one pushing such a course of action, he may not have the allies needed to even get that far. Thoughts?

 

[calvin1417]

The Republic by this point had almost completely collapsed, so the war emerges until some strongman emerges on top. The strongman is probably not Octavian, however, and the war will be going on for decades longer than IOTL.

Why decades?

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

The power struggle continues until a strongman eliminates all the other strongmen and sets up a new regime. The Republic could split geographically between strongmen Romance of the Three Kingdoms style -this almost actually happened with the Second Triumverate- and then be pieced together again later. There is no particular reason for these events to happen when they did. They could happen more more quickly or much later.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

The power struggle continues until a strongman eliminates all the other strongmen and sets up a new regime.

Again, who would be the lead contender here? If nobody is forthcoming, doesn't that mean the Republic will get some breathing room, time to put itself back together, maybe even survive? If not, why is the Republic invariably doomed?

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

The Republic couldn't consistently hold elections for its magistrates or keep order in Rome. It was done. It had been done since Sulla had marched on Rome, all the maneuvering was over what the next version would be. And after Sulla it never functioned without some sort of strongman keeping the Senate in line. Even Pompey at the height of his power wasn't behaving that differently from Octavian when he was in charge.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

<snip>

Ah gotcha, now I'm a little more clear on what you meant by "strongman" it makes sense. Question remains, who emerges as the most likely candidate? I mentioned that Hiritius would likely get a major prestige boost from this turn of events, could he fill the shoes?

Also still curious about Fulvia and the Liberators.

CONSOLIDATE:

What Caesarian faction though? Hirtius and Pansa were Caesar partisans, and yet they were loyal to the senate after his death. A post-Caesar murder Caesarian faction didn't really exist until the triumvirate.

Thinking about this, I can't help but wonder what Roman politics looks like in this aftermath -- after all, the army that defeated Antony might be loyal to the Seante and to the Republic, but this Republic is still a sort of alliance between former Ceasar loyalists (like Hirtius, Octavian, and maybe Lepidus) and anti-ceasarians (like Cicero and Decimus); plus you've got other major figures still in the game, both on the populares (Fulvia) and optimates (Brutus). And if GOV is right about a strongman still being needed to hold all this together... well, it seems there's still stuff to be worked out once the threat of Antony is out of the way.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

The Republic by this point had almost completely collapsed, so the war emerges until some strongman emerges on top. The strongman is probably not Octavian, however, and the war will be going on for decades longer than IOTL.

This is not a guarantee. All it takes is the person/faction winning out to be a Sulla instead of a Caesar. Someone who is committed to the supremacy of the Senate and is willing to institute reforms and then retire. There were several figures around at this time who could fit that bill, Decimus Brutus probably being the best bet.