WI: Maria Theresa, Queen of Hungary

Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Gone Fishin'
What if Maria Theresa lost everything West of Hungary but kept the throne of Hungary? How does this affect the Seven Years war (if a large scale war still were to happen...). I assume Bavaria taking Austria, Saxony taking Bohemia and Moravia, Prussia taking Silesia. France taking the Austrian-Netherlands. What happens to Milan? It stays as a part of Maria Theresa? It is annexed by an other state?

What are the odds of the Habsburg Dynasty assimilating in the dominant Hungarian culture as they are now the only rulers of Hungary. How does this affect later wars with Prussia, Bavaria, Saxony, Ottoman Empire? What happens to PLC?
 
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Gone Fishin'
@alexmilman You may have an idea about a Russian perspective on this matter. How would this affect the PLC (still facing a division or not). A Russian participation in the Seven Years War (if the war breaks out regardless). Does Russia see an alliance with Hungary as useful?
 

Nivek

Koprulu Mustafa Pasha said:
What if Maria Theresa lost everything West of Hungary but kept the throne of Hungary? How does this affect the Seven Years war (if a large scale war still were to happen...). I assume Bavaria taking Austria, Saxony taking Bohemia and Moravia, Prussia taking Silesia. France taking the Austrian-Netherlands. What happens to Milan? It stays as a part of Maria Theresa? It is annexed by an other state?

What are the odds of the Habsburg Dynasty assimilating in the dominant Hungarian culture as they are now the only rulers of Hungary. How does this affect later wars with Prussia, Bavaria, Saxony, Ottoman Empire? What happens to PLC?
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Koprulu Mustafa Pasha said:
@alexmilman You may have an idea about a Russian perspective on this matter. How would this affect the PLC (still facing a division or not). A Russian participation in the Seven Years War (if the war breaks out regardless). Does Russia see an alliance with Hungary as useful?
Click to expand...
If she loss everything best Hungary...the Hasburg are done as a great power, now they've the chance of being a regional one but they're in direct danger both ottomans and russia too. If anything this means the Wittelbasch rule the HRE with the Hohenzollern getting Silesia and part of bohemia and moravia early, a wittelbasch as both king bavaria and bohemia and a HRE just kicked out the austrians...maybe all the crownslands reparted along hohenzollern(silesia,bohemia, moravia) wittelbasch(otl republic of austria) and Wettis(they were offered exchange saxony for the netherlands).
 
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Gone Fishin'
Nivek said:
If she loss everything best Hungary...the Hasburg are done as a great power, now they've the chance of being a regional one but they're in direct danger both ottomans and russia too. If anything this means the Wittelbasch rule the HRE with the Hohenzollern getting Silesia and part of bohemia and moravia early, a wittelbasch as both king bavaria and bohemia and a HRE just kicked out the austrians...maybe all the crownslands reparted along hohenzollern(silesia,bohemia, moravia) wittelbasch(otl republic of austria) and Wettis(they were offered exchange saxony for the netherlands).
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I am well aware that Habsburgs being reduced to Hungary makes them a little less than a Great Power. But by no means a weak state. Russia can pressure Hungary with success to tolerate Russian interests. This Hungary could also try to move West again but whether successful is up to assumptions.
 
Comte de Dordogne

Comte de Dordogne

This change may prevent the reversal of the alliances nan?
France won the war with Prussia but this time with gains in the Austrian Netherlands they have no reason to be frustrated at having "fought the war for Prussia".
Moreover, if there is an overthrow they will not be able to ally themselves with the Habsburgs, the fact that the Habsburgs are reduced to Hungary makes them less attractive.
Finally the Witteslbasch allies of France now govern the HRE.
The United Kingdom finds itself in a very bad situation. They cannot make Prussia an ally since they are looking at Hannover as in OTL (but the Habsburg threat has pushed Frederick to ally with the English).
The UK is stuck in its alliance with the shrinking Habsburgs, the only other strong ally on the continent being Russia.
An analogy of the Seven Years' War will be in this chronology very favorable to France and allied Prussia.
 
SavoyTruffle

SavoyTruffle

Okay so who takes over the traditional Habsburg lands? France obviously takes the southern Netherlands and a bit of Further Austria. Do the Wittelsbachs gain Austria/Styria/Carinthia/Carniola?
 

Jürgen

I would suggest that Bavaria got Milan, Tyrol, Further Austria, the Austrian Netherlands and the imperial crown. France gets some border areas of the Austrian Netherlands. They get to replace a powerful Habsburg neighbor with a weaker Wittelsbach one. Which seemed to the be main French strategy at the time.

Saxony gain Bohemia, Austria proper and Inner Austria. This either mean that the Wettins completely ignores Poland or they use their new power base to increase their power in Poland.

Prussia of course gains Silesia.

The Habsburg of course keep Tuscany

As for a a potential Seven Year War, there’s different possibilities. I could see a Wettin—Wittelsbach alliance, where the Wittelsbachs goes after Mark and Cleve and the Wettins after Silesia. If the Wittelsbach can gain Mark and Cleve, they de facto control Northrhein-Westphalia. This gives them a good fundament to reunite a rump HRE.
 
Comte de Dordogne

Comte de Dordogne

Jürgen said:
I would suggest that Bavaria got Milan, Tyrol, Further Austria, the Austrian Netherlands and the imperial crown. France gets some border areas of the Austrian Netherlands. They get to replace a powerful Habsburg neighbor with a weaker Wittelsbach one. Which seemed to the be main French strategy at the time.

Saxony gain Bohemia, Austria proper and Inner Austria. This either mean that the Wettins completely ignores Poland or they use their new power base to increase their power in Poland.

Prussia of course gains Silesia.

The Habsburg of course keep Tuscany

As for a a potential Seven Year War, there’s different possibilities. I could see a Wettin—Wittelsbach alliance, where the Wittelsbachs goes after Mark and Cleve and the Wettins after Silesia. If the Wittelsbach can gain Mark and Cleve, they de facto control Northrhein-Westphalia. This gives them a good fundament to reunite a rump HRE.
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France is not going to be satisfied with a few border areas in the Austrian Netherlands (already that OTL the French were frustrated to have left the Netherlands to Austria after having conquered it).
For several centuries it has wanted the region. If she lets one of her allies get this area back, they will not be able to claim it anymore. Moreover why would the Witteslbaschs have the Austrian Netherlands? They don't have the means to conquer these lands when they already have the Tyrol and Austria proper to recover.
Finally, even if they manage to have the Austrian Netherlands, they risk losing the support of the French who may see the Witteslbasch as the "New Habsburg". Otherwise I totally agree with the rest of your message with Mark and Kleve.
On the other hand, how do the Wittelsbachs get Milan back?
 

Tibi088

This likely ends up as a prussian wank. Without the austrian to oppose them the Prussians have a near free hand in the HRE as the rest cant really stand up to them. Their only opponent would be the russians.

France is in a stronger position but seeing their performance in the seven years war they are not really a danger to Prussia at the moment. I however dont expect the alliance between France and Prussia to last. The latter would become too powerful for versailles liking so a prusso-british alliance is still likely.

The 7 years war analogue would be Prussia and UK against Bavaria, Saxony, France and Russia. Hungary might also be siding with Prussia but maybe not from the beginning. This could result in Maria Theresa getting back some of her lost territories - maybe parts of Austria and Moravia? I dont think the Prussians would support more than that.
 
Comte de Dordogne

Comte de Dordogne

1580826877083.png

I made a map of Europe after Austria's defeat:
-France gets the Austrian Netherlands.
-Bavaria gets Tyrol, Carinthia, Austria.
-Saxony gets Bohemia-Moravia.
-Prussia gets Silesia.
I don't know who could take over the Habsburg possessions in Italy.
 
Germania09

Germania09

Comte de Dordogne said:
On the other hand, how do the Wittelsbachs get Milan back?
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They don’t without trading something somewhere else for it. Or Hungary gets into another war and loses.

As for the Habsburg rule in Italy I think it’ll last for at the most a generation before Joseph ITTL does a grand trade of those non contiguous lands for land that is. An example could be Trading Milan for Istria and/or Dalmatia with Venice. Or something similar with another interested party.
 
Comte de Dordogne

Comte de Dordogne

Germania09 said:
They don’t without trading something somewhere else for it. Or Hungary gets into another war and loses.

As for the Habsburg rule in Italy I think it’ll last for at the most a generation before Joseph ITTL does a grand trade of those non contiguous lands for land that is. An example could be Trading Milan for Istria and/or Dalmatia with Venice. Or something similar with another interested party.
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I don't see them exchanging the winnings they made in Germany for Milan. They have continuous territory in the HRE now.
 
Comte de Dordogne

Comte de Dordogne

In this situation, France is the referee of the continent. If one of France's "allies" changes sides, the other French allies will throw themselves at him to skin him. If Prussia has fun to join the British for example, Bavaria and Saxony will throw themselves on Berlin to recover their lands (respectively Minden, Ravensburg, Cleves and Mark for Bavaria, Silesia for Saxony and why not East Prussia for Poland).
 
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Koprulu Mustafa Pasha

Gone Fishin'
Comte de Dordogne said:
View attachment 521169
I made a map of Europe after Austria's defeat:
-France gets the Austrian Netherlands.
-Bavaria gets Tyrol, Carinthia, Austria.
-Saxony gets Bohemia-Moravia.
-Prussia gets Silesia.
I don't know who could take over the Habsburg possessions in Italy.
Click to expand...

Possibility of Austrian Lombardy:
1. It remains Austrian. They don't need to give it up but defending it makes it hopeless with Bavaria between Italy and Habsburg Hungary
2. It is traded away with Venice for Dalmatia. Which seems the most likely option. Dalmatia was a wealthy place and it borders Hungary. Venice has a better potential in defending Milan than Dalmatia with the lack of a stronger fleet in the 18th century. This could help out Venice in the long term... (No Austrian occupation of Venice).
3. It is traded away for money. This seems the most unlikely option. The only potential interests are from Bavaria and Savoy. Maybe, they can get the Spanish to give a decent sum for it. But I still doubt they won't trade away Milan without a hopeless situation they are in. If Savoy gets it then it puts them in a stronger position in Northern Italy. If the Italian Republics are too weak to defend themselves then they could go to occupy it.

Germany has three stronger powers now... Prussia, Saxony and Bavaria. If all three work together you may have somewhat of a resistance against France, helping the British. But yet again I doubt if the three powers will work together. I actually think Bavaria and Prussia may just agree to divide the Saxons (Saxony for Prussia, Bohemia and Moravia for Bavaria. Whether it would be successful is up to you. If Poland-Lithuania was any stronger then the Saxons could pressure the Prussians. But PLC was militarily hopeless by 1750.
 
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