I was thinking about a Bavarian and Saxon attempt to quickly seize big chunks of Austria and Bohemia, while they speculate on anti-Habsburg sentiments in Bohemia and Hungary to burst into open rebellions. The Saxons could drag the Poles into the conflict as well, maybe with the prospect of regaining suzeiranity over (East) Prussia. I admit this sounds like an extremely risky move, but they could also count on French support (,which France is either willing to provide or not). It's not like there weren't similar gambles during the course of history. I admit, it's rather crazy, but to be honest, I just can't stand Lausitz being part of Saxony and not of Bohemia. ^^'
Bavaria is not going to take one step if they aren't confident in full French support. The kingdom was militarily uninspiring and very nearly broke; as the actual WoAS demonstrated, the Bavarians were incapable of doing anything at all without French money and French forces. The French, for their part, were only inspired to fight by the military collapse and diplomatic isolation of Austria; Austria united to Prussia is neither militarily weak nor diplomatically isolated. ITTL, there is quite simply no opportunity for either France or Bavaria. Maria Theresa has a strong continental ally and it's now France, not Austria, which is relatively isolated; they can only really count on Spain, which as mentioned is already in another war at the time.
As for Saxony, they were IOTL the most wishy-washy participant of the war. Augustus followed the path of least resistance at all times: He allowed himself to be pushed into war when France, Prussia, and Bavaria seemed to be winning big, and then quit that war and joined the other team as soon as Prussia withdrew and the French started falling back in disarray. History does indeed record some bold gambles, but unless he gets a brain transplant Augustus is not the man to be making them. In fact if Bavaria and France do decide to attack Austria - which I would regard as incredibly unlikely - Saxony is far more likely to fight against them than for them, bowing to pressure from Berlin, Vienna, and London.
There really wasn't significant “anti-Habsburg sentiment” in Bohemia and Hungary at this time. The Hungarians were surprisingly supportive of MT, and the Bohemian reaction to the brief Franco-Bavarian takeover was tepid. The population was generally more open to the new regime than the Silesians, who resisted their Prussian conquerors, but the Bohemians were hardly taking up arms en masse to escape the Habsburg yoke. Moreover, Bohemian "collaboration" (such as it was) really came only after the French and Bavarians had swept through the entire province, conquered Prague, and made Charles Albert emperor. But even if there were some visible signs of discontent, it's impossible for me to imagine Charles Albert or the French starting a war on the mere expectation of popular dissent, which as anyone knows is no substitute for a real army.
IMO, any European war which breaks out in the early 1740s ITTL is probably going to be an outgrowth of the existing war between Spain and Britain. Prior to the death of Charles VI, both the French and British expected that their countries were going to go to war any day now. If France enters the war, it's not impossible that Fred and MT might eventually decide to jump in and side with Britain. Perhaps MT would see it as an opportunity to get Naples and Sicily back. Germany, however, seems unlikely to be a major theater in such a conflict.
I think the biggest unanswered question in all of this (aside from "how does this marriage even happen in the first place") is "what is Frederick like as a hegemon instead of an upstart?" His whole reign was characterized by his bold and frankly risky attempts to elevate his small but efficient state into a European power which received the respect it was due. ITTL, however, he's no longer the underdog - he's the man at the summit of power and authority in Europe. What becomes of his ambitions in such a position? Where does he direct his energies?
Last edited: