WI: Maria Theresa lost the War of the Austrian Succession

[Shiva]

A 'what if' that I've contemplated for a while, what if Maria Theresa von Habsburg had lost the War of the Austrian Succession?

What would the consequences have been?

For example, Maria Theresa secured the Hungarian throne independently of the Austrian inheritance, would the Franco-Prussian alliance against her allow her to keep it? Or would they try to push her off the Hungarian throne as well and risk a widening of the conflict into Eastern Europe and drawing in the Ottoman Empire?

Not to mention the uniting of Austria, Bohemia, and Bavaria in the person of Charles VII and the Wittlesbach dynasty would create a real threat to Prussia's desire for dominance in the HRE. If Charles's line dies out like it does in RL, would Maria Theresa have a chance at getting her Austrian inheritance back anyway? Or would it just detonate a much larger War of Bavarian Succession than the small war in RL?

 

[Shiva]

Maybe I should have asked HOW exactly would Maria Theresa have lost the War of the Austrian Succession?

There was a lot going against her in the beginning stages, but securing Hungary gave her a solid fighting force (unlike her Austrian forces that, while loyal, were basically broke due to her father spending more time securing the Pragmatic Sanction than preparing for the Succession War).

Hell, in 1745 the French supported 'Bonnie Prince Charles' in his invasion of Great Britain during the Jacobite Rising of 1745, so if that campaign had been successful, it would have (at minimum) knocked Great Britain out of the war, since they were supported Maria Theresa for pragmatic reasons. While 'Charles III' wouldn't be in a position to then send forces to fight against Maria Theresa, just taking Britain (or a big chunk of it) out of the fighting would deal a mortal blow to her cause.

 

[Mental_Wizard]

Making the 45' work is hard. IMO just make Austria foolishly try and fight Prussia more. Let the genius of Frederick the Great beat up Austria and friends more.

 

[JackLumber]

Making the 45' work is hard. IMO just make Austria foolishly try and fight Prussia more. Let the genius of Frederick the Great beat up Austria and friends more.

Ahhh by the end of the Otl silesian wars Prussia had more than it's fill of fighting Austria and friends, if you wanted to keep Prussia and Austria fight you'll need to keep Russia out of it.

 

[Shiva]

Ahhh by the end of the Otl silesian wars Prussia had more than it's fill of fighting Austria and friends, if you wanted to keep Prussia and Austria fight you'll need to keep Russia out of it.

Russia was involved in the war, in 1743 their role in the fighting, along with the 'Pragmatic Army' (a coalition of states that supported Maria Theresa) under the command of Count Maillebois terrified Frederick, especially after Prussia's defeat in the Battle of Dettingen. What knocked Russia out of the war was the 'Botta Conspiracy', which was yet another attempt to overthrow Empress Elizabeth of Russia in favor of Ivan VI, it's called the Botta conspiracy because an Austrian envoy, Antoniotto Botta Adorno was heavily involved in the plotting. This gave Frederick a means to hammer out a separate treaty with Russia, getting them out of the war.

But... if Maria Theresa loses the Austrian inheritance but keeps her hands on Hungary, and the Franco-Prussia alliance decides to try and knock her off the Hungarian throne that would start a whole new war in Eastern Europe that Russia wouldn't be able to stay out of. Just as a hypothetical example.


But supposing that Maria Theresa did lose the war, what are the immediate consequences? What are the long-term consequences?

 

[Avrorrange]

I don't think anyone except Bavaria would think about pursuing Maria Theresa into Hungary.The point would be to dismantle the Habsburg domain,not to allow the Wittlesbachs to fully inherit it.

 

[JackLumber]

Russia was involved in the war, in 1743 their role in the fighting, along with the 'Pragmatic Army' (a coalition of states that supported Maria Theresa) under the command of Count Maillebois terrified Frederick, especially after Prussia's defeat in the Battle of Dettingen. What knocked Russia out of the war was the 'Botta Conspiracy', which was yet another attempt to overthrow Empress Elizabeth of Russia in favor of Ivan VI, it's called the Botta conspiracy because an Austrian envoy, Antoniotto Botta Adorno was heavily involved in the plotting. This gave Frederick a means to hammer out a separate treaty with Russia, getting them out of the war.

But... if Maria Theresa loses the Austrian inheritance but keeps her hands on Hungary, and the Franco-Prussia alliance decides to try and knock her off the Hungarian throne that would start a whole new war in Eastern Europe that Russia wouldn't be able to stay out of. Just as a hypothetical example.


But supposing that Maria Theresa did lose the war, what are the immediate consequences? What are the long-term consequences?

I'm aware of Russian involvement had the Russians not been involved the Prussians would have been so exhausted by the conflict overall and would have been able to pursue hostilities with Austria longer.

 

[Shiva]

I don't think anyone except Bavaria would think about pursuing Maria Theresa into Hungary.The point would be to dismantle the Habsburg domain,not to allow the Wittlesbachs to fully inherit it.

True, but as the Bavarians would note, allowing Maria Theresa to retain Hungary would give her a support base to launch future attacks to try and reclaim her ancestral lands. And if, let's say the Wittlesbachs die out (as the mainline did in RL) then Maria Theresa could press her claim once more.

I'm aware of Russian involvement had the Russians not been involved the Prussians would have been so exhausted by the conflict overall and would have been able to pursue hostilities with Austria longer.

True, but the question is... What would keep Russia out of the conflict completely?

 

[Monarch]

I need Russian involvement is being heavily misrepresented. Russia was not involved with the War of The Austrian Succession during its early years. Instead it was tied up by the Hats War against Sweden. The Botta Conspiracy did however spell the end to any though of Russian invention in 1743, just after the Hats War had ended. The true Russian intervention came a few years later during 1747-48 after Britain offered to pay Russia a heavy subsidy to intervene. This army of 30,000 frightened the entire Anti-Austrian alliance and was the deciding factor in France deciding to make peace in 1748. So as long as the Botta Conspiracy still raises suspicions against the Austrians and the war ends before the British buy Russian aid then Russia is not involved in the War of Austrian Succession.

To make Maria Theresa lose the War of the Austrian Succession there are multiple potential PODs.

A Bavarian prioritization of Vienna over Prague. Historically Charles VII prioritized capturing Prague and securing its electoral vote over capturing Vienna. Had he instead focused on Vienna he might have been able to capture it. However as a consequence Prague would have probably fallen to the Saxons and Prussia may have encroached on Moravia. Thus limiting Bavaria's gains.

Second is a successful joint operation in 1742. In 1742, the Bavarians and Prussians attempted an audacious plan to stop the Austrian counterattack and potentially end the war. With better preparation, coordination, and a bit luck this campaign could decisively defeat Austria.

Third is a turn around at Dettingen. The Battle of Dettingen was one of the best planned battles of the war but the Duc de Gramont threw the battle by preemptively attacking the Pragmatic Army and abandoning his strong position. Had he not done so the battle would have a complete victory for the French. And as a consequence De Broglie and Noailkes could completely turn around the Bavarian campaign and eject Austria from the region. Rolling off of that success the Anti-Austrian alliance could have closed out the War and dismantled the Hapsburg monarchy.

Outside of those three PODs or earlier ones it's very had to have Maria Theresa lose the Austrian throne.

As to maintaining the Hungarian throne, it is very likely that she would. She had strong support among the magnates there so no native revolt could have occurred. And there is a lack of any foreign replacement to the Hapsburgs.

 

[Shiva]

Ok, so I've been thinking about this a bit and here's some possible consequences of Maria Theresa losing the War of Austrian Succession.

First I'm assuming a POD involving the Battle of Dettingen

While Charles VII of the HRE will be hoping to get all of the "Habsburg Inheritance" he will quickly run into a united opposition from his allies, primarily France and Prussia. Now while France had plans to divide up the Habsburg lands between themselves, Prussia, Saxony, and Bavaria, those exact plans probably NOT be put into place.

But basically the Habsburg lands in the German portions of the HRE would be taken up by Bavaria, Saxony, and Prussia. Charles VII would also be confirmed to be the King of Bohemia as well as the HRE Emperor.

The Habsburg holdings in Italy and the Austrian Netherlands, however could be tricky. While France has had designed on both lands for centuries, I'm not so sure the powers of Europe would tolerate Louis XV keeping that much territory.

I could see Louis deciding to keep the Italian duchies of Milan and Tuscany in exchange for turning the Austrian Netherlands into it's own statelet with someone of his choosing becoming the 'Duke of Belgium and Luxembourg'. Louis XV only had one son at this time, but several daughters so he could select a candidate, have that man marry one of his daughters, and exert tremendous influence over Belgium and Luxembourg.

During this, while Charles VII would push to force Maria Theresa off the Hungarian throne, this is where the forces of Europe would tell him no. There isn't a non-Habsburg alternative to her, so she'd get to keep it as a consolation prize.


However considering Charles VII's health I doubt he'd get to enjoy his new status for long, he'll probably die roughly when he did in RL, so his peacetime reign will have to be dominated by securing the succession for his heir, Maximillian Joseph, who ironically would reign as Emperor Maximillian III (his Bavarian numerals line up), however he and his uncles had no children, so the death of Maximillian III would open up the succession for the HRE throne once more.

Meanwhile, Maria Theresa would be sitting pretty in Hungary, breeding a huge brood of children like she did in RL, no doubt having gotten involved in the First Partition of Poland, with Prussia and Russia at her side on this one. And while this would let her expand her Hungarian Kingdom, and net her sons something of an inheritance... She'd be watching and waiting for her chance to try and once more claim the Habsburg lands.


So when Maximillian III dies, there'd be an even bigger War of Bavarian Succession, not just to Bavaria, but to everything that the Wittlesbach's took from Maria Theresa.

Now you might be asking how Maria Theresa could take on the powers of Europe when she failed the last time, well this time she's got her children and would have been making marriage alliances with them, giving her a bigger support base.

Not to mention that the alternative to Maria Theresa and her husband would probably be Prussia, which has grown by leaps and bounds and even in RL there were many who wanted to clip their wings a bit.

I could see a scenario emerging out of this in which Bohemia winds up outside of the hands of the HRE Emperor, i.e. the Bohemians either willingly chose a new monarch from a foreign dynasty, or they are 'convinced' to do this as part of creating a balance of power.