WI: Maria Porphyrogenita's plot succeeds

Maria Porphyrogenita was the oldest child of Byzantine Emperor Manuel I Komnenos. After Manuel's death in 1180, her brother Alexios II came under the unpopular regency of his mother, Maria of Antioch and her lover, the protosebastos Alexios Komnenos (son of Manuel's brother Andronikos). In response, she and several other nobles, including her young husband Renier-Ioannes of Montferrat, conspired to remove Empress Maria and her lover from power.

OTL, the plot was discovered and failed. This led to Maria calling Andronikos Komnenos for help, and when he arrived he had Maria and Renier poisoned.

If the plot succeeded, would Maria take over as Empress? What happens to Alexios II?
 
Maria Porphyrogenita was the oldest child of Byzantine Emperor Manuel I Komnenos. After Manuel's death in 1180, her brother Alexios II came under the unpopular regency of his mother, Maria of Antioch and her lover, the protosebastos Alexios Komnenos (son of Manuel's brother Andronikos). In response, she and several other nobles, including her young husband Renier-Ioannes of Montferrat, conspired to remove Empress Maria and her lover from power.

OTL, the plot was discovered and failed. This led to Maria calling Andronikos Komnenos for help, and when he arrived he had Maria and Renier poisoned.

If the plot succeeded, would Maria take over as Empress? What happens to Alexios II?

Well I can't see Maria being able to completely remove her half-brother. Overthrowing an unpopular Regent and taking her place is one thing, assuming the throne yourself is another. She might end up being a sort of Augusta Pulcheria like figure, acting as Regent and co-ruler with and for her brother, but keeping Alexios as a figurehead. Remember Maria was childless, so unless she produces her own heir, she's gonna need her brother, if for nothing else then to continue the dynasty.
 
Well I can't see Maria being able to completely remove her half-brother. Overthrowing an unpopular Regent and taking her place is one thing, assuming the throne yourself is another.

Hmm, yeah. OTL, I know some people were angry at his murder but I'm not exactly sure how popular Alexios II himself was - that is, was he popular just because he was Manuel's son, the way Mary was initially popular in comparison to Lady Jane Grey?

I'm also not sure what kind of emperor he might have been had he survived. I've read that he was spoiled and more interested in hunting and races than in actually ruling or learning how to rule. Although that might be partly down to Maria-Xene's influence.

She might end up being a sort of Augusta Pulcheria like figure, acting as Regent and co-ruler with and for her brother, but keeping Alexios as a figurehead. Remember Maria was childless, so unless she produces her own heir, she's gonna need her brother, if for nothing else then to continue the dynasty.

I guess it depends on if when or if Maria has a child. She's nearing her mid 30's by 1182. Who knows, the cycle might start again.
 
Hmm, yeah. OTL, I know some people were angry at his murder but I'm not exactly sure how popular Alexios II himself was - that is, was he popular just because he was Manuel's son, the way Mary was initially popular in comparison to Lady Jane Grey?

I'm also not sure what kind of emperor he might have been had he survived. I've read that he was spoiled and more interested in hunting and races than in actually ruling or learning how to rule. Although that might be partly down to Maria-Xene's influence.



I guess it depends on if when or if Maria has a child. She's nearing her mid 30's by 1182. Who knows, the cycle might start again.

Well he was only 13/14 when he was murdered, so who knows if that spoiled mindset would remain. As for his popularity, I think its probably more to do with being Manuel's heir. As Alexios was only a boy, he hadn't really done anything that would warrant popularity, or unpopularity yet.

But I think as long as Maria is childless Alexios is safe. However, if she had a son, then all bets are off.
 
Well he was only 13/14 when he was murdered, so who knows if that spoiled mindset would remain. As for his popularity, I think its probably more to do with being Manuel's heir. As Alexios was only a boy, he hadn't really done anything that would warrant popularity, or unpopularity yet.

But I think as long as Maria is childless Alexios is safe. However, if she had a son, then all bets are off.

Okay then. I'm going to assume two different scenarios:

1. Maria doesn't have a child before Alexios reaches maturity. Would he end up being more like his father or, say, Isaac II Angelos? During his reign, Bela III of Hungary took back Syrmia, Bosnia and Dalmatia and the Seljuks began pushing as far as Dorylaeum, maybe further. Would there be any chance of getting them back or even going further?

2. Maria does have a son before Alexios reaches maturity. Maria keeps Alexios around as a puppet until her son reaches maturity or moves him aside to rule through her son the way Maria of Antioch did (ironically).

Would any children Maria have be born in her family name (Komnenos) or Renier's (Aleramici)? How long would she last. I don't think the Komnenoi had reached late Macedonian dynasty levels of popularity yet.
 
Okay then. I'm going to assume two different scenarios:

1. Maria doesn't have a child before Alexios reaches maturity. Would he end up being more like his father or, say, Isaac II Angelos? During his reign, Bela III of Hungary took back Syrmia, Bosnia and Dalmatia and the Seljuks began pushing as far as Dorylaeum, maybe further. Would there be any chance of getting them back or even going further?

2. Maria does have a son before Alexios reaches maturity. Maria keeps Alexios around as a puppet until her son reaches maturity or moves him aside to rule through her son the way Maria of Antioch did (ironically).

Would any children Maria have be born in her family name (Komnenos) or Renier's (Aleramici)? How long would she last. I don't think the Komnenoi had reached late Macedonian dynasty levels of popularity yet.
First scenario, I would say that he's probably not going to be a great emperor, if only because living under a regency council from a young age is rarely good for a child's development. Even so, nothing can be as bad as the Angeloi, so I'll suggest that he probably holds steady, but doesn't make any significant gains unless he lives to see the Seljuks collapse, which may or may not happen the same way ITTL.

Second scenario almost certainly sees Alexios murdered, although if Maria is smart then she'll at least wait until her son comes of age to actually kill him, and preferably until he has children of his own. Her son will almost certainly take her family's name, and is probably limited in power on account of his foreign paternity. Long term, I wouldn't be surprised if we were to see OTL Andronikos I's children become relevant in the near future, if only because discontent is sure to come and they are male bloodline Komnenoi. Things probably get messy soon after they kill Alexios II, and I would say a destructive civil war is more than likely. Who wins will depend on the character of Maria's son, as well as perhaps on Renier's abilities as well. If the house of Montferrat at that time is any indication, then they will probably both be fairly capable, but you never know for sure.
 
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