Conservative loose in 1992. If you look at the response to the Poll Tax and the infamous Mid Staffordshire by-Election, if Thatcher survived a Leadership Election, without a shadow of a doubt she's out in 1992.
People don't give enough credit to John Major's and Chris Patten's Campaign in '92; without the kind of desperate energy you had from Major, who was young and able to throw himself completely into it, and with Thatcher likely surrounded by yes-men who assured her she was going survive whilst preparing themselves for the loss, the best the Tories can hope for it Kinnock to fail to get over the line, and get into a Coalition with Ashdown and the Lib Dems.