WI Marcus Livius Drusus successful?

In 91 BC the reforming tribune Marcus Livius Drusus was assassinated. His death was the catalyst for the Social War, one of the first major conflagrations of the Republic's final century.* He was also a man of impeccably conservative stock, and perhaps the last statesman who could put forward a reform program that was acceptable to both optimates and populares.

Not only did his death set off the Social War, but the revelation that the grateful Italian allies had sworn to become his clients upon his citizenship saw all his previous reforms get swept away.

Let's say that the evidence of the oath of allegiance stays hidden, or that no oath is sworn at all. Without the spectre of a Tribune with the whole of Italy as clients, the opposition to his reform program never becomes strong enough to invalidate all his bills.

Furthermore, he manages to get his bill granting citizenship to the Italians through.

So by the end of his term of office he has doubled the size of the senate, coopting many powerful equestrian families. He has also stripped many of the juries away from the equestrians, appeasing many in the Senate. He devalued the currency so that he could lower the price of grain and ensure a constant supply, and he even set up a commission for land reform. In all, it was a remarkable legislative program.


In our timeline, it was all so much dust. But what if his legislation survived? Assume, for the moment that the oath was sworn but his opponents couldn't use it for political capital. What next?












*Yes, I know that the early Imperial period is in many ways a continuation of the Republic, but let's go with how it's usually understood.
 
According this Drusus warned Consul Marcius Phillipus of an attempt on his life, before Marcius Phillipus aggressively attacked Drusus' reforms. Maybe if Phillipus is dead, perhaps a less adept or more receptive Consul could take power. Also take a look at this if Sulla's ambition can be swayed I think the republic will be saved. On the other hand if Sulla does defect on the Italian issue I think that he might simply march on Rome.

If there is no Social War and the land of Italy is better divided, then Rome will be stronger in the long run for sure.
 
I don't think Sulla could march on Rome yet- it was only in the Social War that he went from having an impressive military record to being the greatest war hero of the conservatives. The legions he used to march in Rome were ones he'd fought with against the Samnites, I believe.

On the other hand, you can imagine some kind of reverse Catiline conspiracy taking hold amongst dissatisfied ultraconservatives after all those Italian voters began to arrive in Rome.
 
I could see Socii effectively getting more the same rights as Latini (maybe even the suffragiorum) but doubtful that even the Latini themselves, much less Socii, get the jus connubii so... effectively a slightly weaker non optimo jure?

Best case scenario, The Latini get a limited connubii, maybe getting inducted into new tribes with suffragiorum but not the honorium (effectively become "novus plebeian"). The Socii effectively go into the slot of the Latini. Or if you're feeling really generous aristocratic/wealthy Latini become "novus equites" and the poorer "novus plebeian."

I'd love to see that worked out to be less aristocratic but that's extremely unlikely, even if the patricians get wiped out in a plague that leaves the "old" plebeians to fill their void without remaining just as exclusionary to the Latini, much less Socii.
 
I could see Socii effectively getting more the same rights as Latini (maybe even the suffragiorum) but doubtful that even the Latini themselves, much less Socii, get the jus connubii so... effectively a slightly weaker non optimo jure?

Best case scenario, The Latini get a limited connubii, maybe getting inducted into new tribes with suffragiorum but not the honorium (effectively become "novus plebeian"). The Socii effectively go into the slot of the Latini. Or if you're feeling really generous aristocratic/wealthy Latini become "novus equites" and the poorer "novus plebeian."

I'd love to see that worked out to be less aristocratic but that's extremely unlikely, even if the patricians get wiped out in a plague that leaves the "old" plebeians to fill their void without remaining just as exclusionary to the Latini, much less Socii.

You forget that at the end of the war the Latins and Italians, however, obtained full Roman citizenship (The Consuls and the Senate used it as a means to reward allies remained faithful and then to end the war and bring all Italy under their rule) and at the proposal of Drusus was on the full Roman citizenship (if anything, the Senate could have created a couple of new tribes for new citizens and thus limit their political influence in the Tribal Assembly and maybe also in the Century Assembly).

The membership to the different classes of Roman society depended on the census and the registration must still get access to the different classes and the membership of the Equitees class (the second highest class) was not so easy to obtain and the Senate (the highest class) was even more limited (while being plebeians or patricians depended solely on birth and indeed many influential families of senators were plebeian). So you can be sure that very few Italics and Latins could join the Senate and follow the honorium course.
 
an interesting butterfly from Drusus not dying, would be that its posible that Brutus wouldn't have been born, given that Sevillia (Brutus' mother) was Drusus's Niece (both through his wife and his sister) and her Pater Familias ... and Cato the younger (Sevilllia's younger half-brother) might not have been such radically and confrontatoric conservative

A good POD to make him successfull would be to be him taking the long lane, deciding that pushing for Italians getting Citizenship would be to much to early, and getting a watered down version (say ... something alike Latins, giving them a modest kick up the ladder) till he would have gotten higher, prehaps even to consul himself, where he would be able to even it out even more
 
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