WI: Marcus Livius Drusus is never assassinated.

Okay, so I just finished the Grass Crown by Colleen McCullough (great book in a great series) and I started wondering what butterflies would happen if Marcus Livius Drusus wasn't assassinated. Assuming he is able to get enfranchisement for all of Italia does this prevent the Social War?

How does this effect the careers of Gaius Marius and those associated with him? Does the lack of a stressful war stop Gaius Marius from getting another stroke? Does a lack of a second stroke preserve his sanity into old age? Assuming all of this happens, will Gaius Marius still get a seventh consulship? How does this affect his future associates such as Cinna? Sertorius is a bright man, how does his career fare? Would he still be jealous of Sulla and go to the Assembly of the People? This leads me to another question.

How does this effect Sulla and the fate of the Optimates? This is the big question, because if there's no Social War then there's a good chance that Sulla won't get the Mithridatic command (unless Gaius Marius and him are still on somewhat good terms and he suggests him to the senate). This also means no two marches on Rome. This has heavy implications for the future of Rome as Sulla doesn't set the precedent to march on Rome. Additionally, how important were Sulla's reforms? Without them how does the Republic, or at least the optimate faction fare?

And now, the final question....is Rome better off with Marcus Livius Drusus dead or alive?

EDIT: The POD is that Marcus's plan to make all of Italia his client is never revealed.
 
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I think it very unlikely that Marcus Livius Drusus would have been able to pull off Italian enfranchisement after the news that he had made Italy swear a cliental oath to him, it was a complete game changer as every Roman understood that if Drusus's enfranchisement bill passed he and his family would become politically dominant.

Still the books are very good.
 

iddt3

Donor
I think it very unlikely that Marcus Livius Drusus would have been able to pull off Italian enfranchisement after the news that he had made Italy swear a cliental oath to him, it was a complete game changer as every Roman understood that if Drusus's enfranchisement bill passed he and his family would become politically dominant.

Still the books are very good.
So what if the Oath doesn't get out?
 
So what if the Oath doesn't get out?

Probably a Civil War when the Oath eventually does come out and everyone finds out that the Livii Drusus's have most of Italy in their clientship. The Roman political system simply could not deal with that degree of power in the hands of one man.
 
Probably. I'm more concerned about what happens to Marius and Sulla and the effects of the butterflies cast on them.
 
Probably. I'm more concerned about what happens to Marius and Sulla and the effects of the butterflies cast on them.

Well Marius is an old man by this point and while Colleen McCullough's stroke based explanation of his blood-soaked final consulship is supposition based on scanty sources he definitely wasn't right in the head, but he still had enormous auctoritas. Similarly Sulla is an extremely talented General in a hurry and neither is likely to fade into the background.
Depending on what precisely happens there is a wide variety of roles that could be played but they will both be among the main players.
 
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True... But without the chance to shine during the Social War won't Sulla's career suffer, or at least be set back some? I think that would have a huge effect on his career and the whole optimate cause as a result. Would Marius still try to take a seventh consulship?

Mithridates might end up delaying his attack as well since Rome isn't distracted by civil war.
 
True... But without the chance to shine during the Social War won't Sulla's career suffer, or at least be set back some?

He isn't going to receive the boost from winning the Grass Crown he got in OTL but remember this is Republican Rome and there is always a war on. Sulla had been recognised as a skilled commander since the Jugurthine War and had found plenty of legateships so he probably will be heading to Macedonia or the Spain's if there is nothing interesting going on inside Italy. He might get lucky and find a good battle to give him some cash or he might not.

I think that would have a huge effect on his career and the whole optimate cause as a result. Would Marius still try to take a seventh consulship?

Marius wouldn't get a chance in hell at a seventh consulship without the general breakdown in constitutional order which the Social War unleashed. That said the likelihood that Rome is going to face some kind of crisis over enfranchising Italians especially when the cliental Oath comes out. So Marius might get his chance.

Mithridates might end up delaying his attack as well since Rome isn't distracted by civil war.

Mithridates decision making process is a complete mystery to us but remember he was sitting atop a nest of snakes. A nice clear external enemy was the best way to keep knives out of his back. However I do agree that he will wait until Rome is distracted by something.
 
True. But that still would set back Sulla's career somewhat. Additionally he would never become dictator and march on Rome unless something crazy happens. I think Sulla will still find a chance though, after all his is Lucius Cornelius Sulla "Felix", no matter how long it takes. I wonder what effects the lack of a seventh Marian consulship, two marches on Rome, and Sulla's dictator ship has on Rome. Does this delay the end of the republic?

I doubt Marius will go for a seventh consulship. I suspect that the crisis over enfranchisement won't be as bad as the Social War ITTL. Additionally I'm convinced that Marius's decision making process was dramatically changed by his second stroke (which may not happen ITTL). I'm with Colleen, he may not have been the greatest politician, but the real Marius would never side with someone like Sulpicius. Maybe Marius might gain it legally though.

Mithridates is indeed a different kind of beast. Maybe he'll leave Rome alone (probably not). Maybe he'll eventually be forced to attack, with or without a devastating civil war to distract Rome.
 
I think it very unlikely that Marcus Livius Drusus would have been able to pull off Italian enfranchisement after the news that he had made Italy swear a cliental oath to him, it was a complete game changer as every Roman understood that if Drusus's enfranchisement bill passed he and his family would become politically dominant.

Still the books are very good.

His family did become dominant, his relations included four emperors.
 
His family did become dominant, his relations included four emperors.

The Livii Drusi were far from dominant. While his granddaughter married into the Claudii the Livii Drusii themselves remained just another patrician family after Marcus Livius Drusus died. But clientships were hereditary and with the majority of Roman citizens in their clientship they would have become totally dominant.
 
Masters of Rome

If Drusus went unassassinated, the very next day would have seen him and his followers murdered in yet another fit of public violence like that which undid the Gracchi. The difference might change a few dates here and there, such as the opening and closing of the Social War, the advance of Mithridates, and so forth, but overall it would have made little difference.

What would have made a HUGE difference is a reversal of the reaction of Sulla's soldiers when he proposed to them the march on Rome. If that particular door had remained closed, Janus Clusivius be thanked, then the Republic might have easily drifted on another hundred years.
 
If Drusus went unassassinated, the very next day would have seen him and his followers murdered in yet another fit of public violence like that which undid the Gracchi. The difference might change a few dates here and there, such as the opening and closing of the Social War, the advance of Mithridates, and so forth, but overall it would have made little difference.

Agreed, you can improve his luck and enable him to dodge the first few assassination attempts but once the Oath came out he would be forced to back down, flee or he would die.

What would have made a HUGE difference is a reversal of the reaction of Sulla's soldiers when he proposed to them the march on Rome. If that particular door had remained closed, Janus Clusivius be thanked, then the Republic might have easily drifted on another hundred years.

While its a possibility and we know Sulla was worried that his troops wouldn't follow him a look at the bigger picture shows Roman troops were already putting their loyalty to their Generals ahead of their loyalty to Rome, look at the behaviour of Pompey Strabo. And once that happens the Republic is doomed the timing and nature of it's death can be altered but the status quo cannot survive.
 
I do agree with Sullafelix on the point that thinking Drusus' assassination caused the social war is a misunterstanding.

It is because he had failed and was even considered some kind of enemy of thé italien cause that Drusus was murdered.

Drusus' plan was to trade italian soil in exchange for a devaluated roman citizenship. But the italian ruling classes did not want that deal : they did not want to give their lands to the roman plebs. They wanted the roman citizenship Marius, who was their main patron, had bestowed on them for their military service without taking their lands.

Drusus was not à genious. He was an optimate who just thought he could hâve the italian elites to strike a deal contrary to their own interests and in the same time to found on larger and more solid bases the domination of the roman senatorial aristocracy by paying the prince of appeasing the roman plebs.

Another policy was much more adequate to a majority of italians and romans : the one enforced between 88 and 83 by Marius, Sulpicius Rufus, Cinna, and several moderate great noble families like the Valerii Flacci, Aemilii Lepidi, Cornelii Scipiones, Domitii Ahenobarbi, Mucii Scaevolae (the grandfather of the wife of Marius the younger), Perpenae, Junii Brutii, and even thé young Pompey, ...etc.

But Sulla's military and politico genius enabled him to defeat this coalition which had a much broader political and social basis than his optimate faction.
 
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