WI Marcos' Finest Hour Never Happens

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Apparently, in the 1986 Philippine Revolution, for a while, General Ver, the Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff, was advising Ferdinand Marcos to attack the protesters. The Philippine Marines, as we know, refused to fire on what they saw as a crowd of students, priests and nuns.

But Ver had another plan. If the audio is accurate, the plan was to evacuate Marcos from Manila, after which he would send fighter planes to take down the helicopters being flown by the rebels, then to rain down death from above on the pro-democracy demonstrators. OTL, Marcos refused to approve the orders, and ordered a dispersal with current forcesvusing non-lethal means, which was promptly ignored by the commanders on the ground. This led to Marcos fleeing the country and the end of the dictatorship

But what if Marcos decides to screw world opinion and decides to launch figher jets on the helicopters, and then on his own people? What would happen, aside from of course becoming an international pariah?

 

[Cook]

Ceausescu with palm trees; the troops (or the vast majority of them anyway) refuse to carry out the order to fire and Marcos’ regime collapses so fast neither he, his wife, or her vast shoe collection have an opportunity to escape the country and the final legacy of President Marcos is a stretch of wall in the presidential palace that is pocked with bullet holes.

Dictators don’t leave peacefully because of “world opinion”, they leave because they realize that they’re on a busted flush and it’s either go now or become part of the landscaping; Marcos knew he was screwed the moment the marines refused to fire into the crowd. Actually he probably knew he was screwed when he saw all those little nuns taking up positions in front of the crowd, between the protestors and the armed forces.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Ceausescu with palm trees; the troops (or the vast majority of them anyway) refuse to carry out the order to fire and Marcos’ regime collapses so fast neither he, his wife, or her vast shoe collection have an opportunity to escape the country and the final legacy of President Marcos is a stretch of wall in the presidential palace that is pocked with bullet holes.

Dictators don’t leave peacefully because of “world opinion”, they leave because they realize that they’re on a busted flush and it’s either go now or become part of the landscaping; Marcos knew he was screwed the moment the marines refused to fire into the crowd. Actually he probably knew he was screwed when he saw all those little nuns taking up positions in front of the crowd, between the protestors and the armed forces.

OTOH, if even most of it goes according to plan, Marcos would have been in his Ilocos stronghold, while the planes, which were already in the air, would have been raining death upon Manilenos and the Reformist helicopters.

I know he's screwed some way or another, I'm just interested if he has the opportunity to pull a Bashar al-Assad a few decades early. Or at least to drag along things to make the country even more of a basketcase than it had already become.

 

[Sanderford]

The moment President Marcos orders the sort of actions you describe, several things will happen.

First, the Marines staring down the crowd will continue refusing to fire, and may be inclined to openly turn against Marcos once they get word of his whole plan.

Next, it is quite possible that the Air Force pilots will also refuse to attack the innocent protesters, and will either refuse to even fly the mission, or will fly out, head back with the bombs still on board, and land, having done literally nothing to the protesters in the process except give them something to gawk at for a while.

Even larger and more riotous crowds will begin gathering across the country as word begins leaking out of what Marcos has tried to do. Even when inclined to try, the police and military will prove unable to quell them.

President Marcos, realizing his mistake, will attempt to flee with his wife and perhaps a handful of others, as the Armed Forces begin turning en masse against his rule.

If he is lucky, President Marcos will get out of the country on a plane whose loyal crew are willing to transport him. He probably flees to the United States eventually, hoping for refuge.

If he is unlucky, then he, his wife, and the others with him all become one with the landscape.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Military junta takes place? I've also wondered if a junta led by Ramos or even Fabian Ver would have been up for grabs.