WI Mao's son survives Korean War

It's exactly what it says on the tin. Let's say the South African Air Force that kills Mao's son, Mao Anying, with four napalm bombs fails to function properly on the day of the deed. What are the possibilities that China faces as a result of this?
 
It's exactly what it says on the tin. Let's say the South African Air Force that kills Mao's son, Mao Anying, with four napalm bombs fails to function properly on the day of the deed. What are the possibilities that China faces as a result of this?
Mao would shift power to his sun and we would see the power in China begin to be a herediatry thing, much like Korea. Not much is known about the sons abilities to lead though I wonder how he might have turned out.
 

birdboy2000

Banned
Mao would shift power to his sun and we would see the power in China begin to be a herediatry thing, much like Korea. Not much is known about the sons abilities to lead though I wonder how he might have turned out.

It's entirely possible that Mao would *try* - OTL he didn't trust much of anyone in the party to get it right. (Not definite - he might not trust his son either.)

But the party will still disagree with Mao. Mao will still become convinced of the party's corruption and launch the cultural revolution. And once that happens, Mao's son doesn't have a chance, simply because he's Mao's son.

OTL, after all, Jiang Qing, Mao's wife (although I don't believe Mao Anying's mother) was arrested and given life imprisonment. If Mao's son sticks with his father politically, there's no way he'll be allowed in politics by the post-Cultural Revolution party, although his name might keep him out of prison. If he does not, he won't be able to trade on family connections and will have no powerbase for any such bid.

Most likely, he goes down as a historical footnote, if even that.
 
This would completely change political alliances. For example Lin Biao may not be as closely allied to Mao if he sees no chance of succeeding Mao. Some of the moderates who went along with Mao like Zhou Enlai may feel disenchanted if Mao intends to pass power to his son. OTOH some may back Mao because their political power will be carried over with his successor.

Whatever the case, Mao's personality cult will be more threatening to some. Whether they will do something about it, nobody knows.
 
It's entirely possible that Mao would *try* - OTL he didn't trust much of anyone in the party to get it right. (Not definite - he might not trust his son either.)

But the party will still disagree with Mao. Mao will still become convinced of the party's corruption and launch the cultural revolution. And once that happens, Mao's son doesn't have a chance, simply because he's Mao's son.

OTL, after all, Jiang Qing, Mao's wife (although I don't believe Mao Anying's mother) was arrested and given life imprisonment. If Mao's son sticks with his father politically, there's no way he'll be allowed in politics by the post-Cultural Revolution party, although his name might keep him out of prison. If he does not, he won't be able to trade on family connections and will have no powerbase for any such bid.

Most likely, he goes down as a historical footnote, if even that.

Assumes the Cultural Revolution happens as OTL and the same parties come out on top, so no. Mao Anying's party credentials could be questioned, but his military ones couldn't - fought as a volunteer in the Soviet Army in WWII, fought the Americans in Korea, good looking, good speaker - if he lives he's the Army's darling. He's also a decent son - has his fights wih pop, but nothing unmanageable. After Korea he probably winds up Chief of Staff, with Lin Biao as the SecDef (after Peng Dehuai's fall, so 1959-60). The cultural revolution kicks off as OTL. And in May 1966, Tian Jiaying dies.

Tian was one of Mao's secretaries. He was dismissed from his post and commited suicide immediately. To Mao the elder he was a competent assistant and pleasant companion; but Mao Anying always called him "Teacher", and Tian was the younger Mao's tutor for a decade or more. Mao Anying already despised his stepmother, and now his father is complicit in the death of the man who actually raised him. He looks around for a way to redress this, and lo and behold, his nominal superior is the megalomaniac and opium addict Lin Biao.

I think the survival of Mao Anying leads to a successful coup attempt, possibly earlier than OTL. Mao the elder and Jian Qing are retired to the country at gunpoint. Lin becomes nominal chairman while Mao the younger squashes the Red Guards with the Regular Army. The Lin shuffles off in a year or two and Mao the Younger is in charge.

Zhou Enlai will go along with it; he'll work with even Lin Biao if it ends the Cultural Revolution and puts someone competent in charge of culture and media. He won't shed a tear for Lin when he passes. But he and the younger Mao will be a dangerous two-step; they don't really trust each other, they don't especially like each other, but neither can run the nation without the other. At least until 1976.

Thoughts?

EDIT: I suppose that assumes he doesn't pick up his boss' bad habit and become a pipehead. But let's assume he doesn't.
 
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I have no idea why you think that. For one, he's perfectly willing to trade on his father's personality cult. Disdainful of it, but doesn't utterly reject it the way Deng did. For another, he's been in charge of the Army for six years, covering for a drug-addled SecDef. But somehow no one sees him as important or useful despite Korea and that? Lin Biao surely does. Zhou Enlai surely does. Once Peng Dehuai is cast down at Lushan 1959, the only person with a military pedigree that can match the younger Mao is Zhu De, and he's become rather withdrawn and apolitical (for safety, of course, but it means he's reacting at most, not acting).

The only powerful people he's inconvenient to are Jiang Qing and her cronies. She's dependent on Mao, they're dependent on her - and the PLA likes the younger Mao a hell of a lot more than they like her.
 
I have no idea why you think Mao Jr would turn on his old man when being son of the Chairman is his best asset. If Mao gains the same cult of personality as OTL, his son would be the second biggest benefactor. Sons gain political capital by following in their famous father's footsteps, it's ludicrous to think anyone would want Mao Anyin to head the country after eliminating his father. He is literally the last person who would try to off Mao Sr.

Your concept of military credential is also totally off the mark. The revolution had taken decades, there are countless revolutionary elders more senior than Mao Anyin. There's no way he would rise that quickly. He made no contribution to the civil war or war against Japan, and was only a liason officer in the Korean War. Just being the son of a top leader doesn't place him in line for power. No son of a Chinese revolutionary leader became a second generation leader. It would take a rather peculiar set of circumstances for Mao Anyin to rise to the top, repudiating his father is certainly not part of it.
 
Often theorized, but it's just as likely it was nothing more than the pressures of the job. Peng was willing to say that the communes weren't working and that famine was occuring. He was angry and expressed it; he didn't seem to have realized how different 1966 Mao was from 1950 Mao, and thought he could still talk as one field commander to another. Lots of people no doubt felt the same, but Peng didn't seem to understand that it was no longer safe to criticize his old friend.
 
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