WI: Maoist-Lumumbist DRC?

[DirtyCommie]

As most people here, I think, vaguely know, the DRC underwent a series of catastrophes after independence, beginning with the murder of Patrice Lumumba, the first leader of the Republic, in 1961and ending with Mobutu's coup (which led to a long period of terror and mismanagement) in 1965. One of the most notable of these was the Simba Rebellion in 1964. This was actually technically two revolts: the first a Maoist uprising in Kwilu led by Chinese-trained guerilla Pierre Mulele and the second a much larger and disparate alliance of Lumumba supporters, anti-imperialists, and traditionalists which eventually allied with Mulele and ended up occupying two-thirds of the country before being defeated by a force primarily made up of European mercenaries.

I posit however that the Simba Rebellion could have succeeded had two things have happened: firstly, that Mulele had started off aligned with the Simbas and brought his formidable training and foreign contacts to bear: and secondly, that the Simbas had started off as a properly-organized military force, as they began to become in the later stages of the rebellion with Soviet and Chinese assistance. The first basically allows the second. This ATL Simba Rebellion would most likely occur in 1966 or '65, given that IOTL the Simbas were forced to act by Mulele's independent uprising.

If they were to win in 1966 and defeat Tshombe, Kasavubu, and Mobutu, what would the resulting "socialism with Congolese characteristics" look like? How would the regime most likely develop? What do you guys think?

 

[DirtyCommie]

No takers? Personally, I think it could be really interesting; it might even be better for the DRC despite having an unpleasantly Maoist government since a. the Maoists are only one faction and b. Mulele and his folks actually seem to have genuinely cared about the people of the Congo, and would no doubt be a LOT better than Mobutu (though when the bar is set so low, it's hard not to be better).

 

[James Ricker]

The DRC or the People's Democratic Republic of the Congo would still be the corrupt dumpster fire it is in OTL and a financial drain on whatever Communist power tries to support it.

 

[DirtyCommie]

The DRC is largely the way it is because of Mobutu. He drained the country's economy for decades, murdered political dissidents, and let national infrastructure fall apart. Before him, the DRC was one of the more urbanized post-colonial African countries, and of course had vast natural resources and huge economic potential if under a government that could use it. So no, it being a "corrupt dumpster fire" isn't set in stone, which is sort of the point of alternate history, isn't it?

 

[Alexander the Average]

Not sure about domestic policy, but a large Communist/anti-Colonial power in the heart of Africa throws up all manner of geopolitical possibilities, especially given that they would share a border with Angola, Rhodesia and Sudan, all of which are potential hotspots for conflict.

 

[samcster94]

The DRC is largely the way it is because of Mobutu. He drained the country's economy for decades, murdered political dissidents, and let national infrastructure fall apart. Before him, the DRC was one of the more urbanized post-colonial African countries, and of course had vast natural resources and huge economic potential if under a government that could use it. So no, it being a "corrupt dumpster fire" isn't set in stone, which is sort of the point of alternate history, isn't it?

Apartheid is relevant of course as the regime was racist and anti-Communist.

 

[GiantMonkeyMan]

I think you overestimate Mulele and his allies and perhaps underestimate the lengths western imperialism was willing to go to prevent one of the most resource rich regions of Africa falling into the communist sphere. Regardless, it might have been possible for a left-wing government to overcome all the odds and for communists to be the leading group which eventually takes power.

You rightly note that the Congo had a large urban population but it should also be noted that in 1959 ~25% of the Leopoldville population was unemployed and that number was similarly repeated in the other major cities of the country. With fluctuations of both copper and coffee prices on the world market in this period, the economic situation in the Congo could be very tenuous. There was a large degree of economic turmoil in the country before Mobutu had murdered his way to the top and he certainly did little to change that. Obviously, public works to improve infrastructure, education to get younger people out of work and into school, would certainly help this mass unemployment but there's no hand-waving these problems away. Congolese debt was huge so paying for all this would be a challenge in and of itself even if every single public official was as honest as they come. As Frantz Fanon said, "decolonization, which sets out to change the order of the world, is, obviously, a programme of complete disorder".

 

[Alexander the Average]

Could you end up with a Communist United States of Latin Africa? At the very least a possible union with the other Congo if it stays Communist as IOTL.

 

[DirtyCommie]

I think you overestimate Mulele and his allies and perhaps underestimate the lengths western imperialism was willing to go to prevent one of the most resource rich regions of Africa falling into the communist sphere. Regardless, it might have been possible for a left-wing government to overcome all the odds and for communists to be the leading group which eventually takes power.

You rightly note that the Congo had a large urban population but it should also be noted that in 1959 ~25% of the Leopoldville population was unemployed and that number was similarly repeated in the other major cities of the country. With fluctuations of both copper and coffee prices on the world market in this period, the economic situation in the Congo could be very tenuous. There was a large degree of economic turmoil in the country before Mobutu had murdered his way to the top and he certainly did little to change that. Obviously, public works to improve infrastructure, education to get younger people out of work and into school, would certainly help this mass unemployment but there's no hand-waving these problems away. Congolese debt was huge so paying for all this would be a challenge in and of itself even if every single public official was as honest as they come. As Frantz Fanon said, "decolonization, which sets out to change the order of the world, is, obviously, a programme of complete disorder".

You certainly make a fair point, and it's very true that the DRC was already in great difficulty before Mobutu, but is it not fair to say that basically any government that wasn't Mobutu's would have done at least a little better? I tend to think yes, given what a disaster he really was. But perhaps I'm wrong.

I'm interested in the Communist States of Latin Africa thing, although I don't know how well that might play over with the other members of the Simba coalition.

 

[Richard V]

I don't see how a Communist DRC in the 60's could possibly be stable, given the USSR and Cuba would try to destablize a China backed DRC and China would try to destablize a Soviet backed DRC.

 

[DirtyCommie]

I don't see how a Communist DRC in the 60's could possibly be stable, given the USSR and Cuba would try to destablize a China backed DRC and China would try to destablize a Soviet backed DRC.

Actually, IOTL the Simbas had significant support from both states. There's a possibility they might be able to balance between them. More likely though is that the new regime ends up orienting towards the USSR out of pragmatism, with China mostly powerless to stop it. They had very little capability to intervene in Africa even by the '80s, as the Ogden War shows.

 

[Merried Seinor Comic]

I imagine that it would be in somewhat better shape than it is in OTL. For all the flaws of communism, it is good at turning agricultural states into industrialized countries. Congo would probably have a better education system and infrastructure in alt-1996 compared to OTL 1996 considering that the mineral wealth couldn't possibly be more poorly invested than it was under Mobutu. Also, no matter how bad communists would be at economic management, I don't think they could top Mobutu's level of graft.

Now, whether it stays together after the Communist government falls is another story.

 

[fasquardon]

I don't think that the Chinese and the Soviets would fight over Congo - I do think the Congolese would face a long fight against Western intervention though - something akin to the Angolan civil war, though maybe shorter, since I can't see any equivalent of South Africa that could step in towards the end of the war...

I do wonder what this would mean for the French Congo though? OTL it became one of the deeper rooted Soviet-aligned regimes.

fasquardon