WI: Mao Doesn't Intervene in the Korean War?

Supposedly, after he had made vague insinuations for months that he wouldn't bail Kim-Il-Sung out of the mess he had created for himself, for a brief period in October 1950, after Stalin had announced that Soviet troops would not be fighting in Korea, Mao "instructed" Kim to simply withdraw to the Tumen and regroup the KPA in Manchuria as a guerrilla force, abandoning Korea to MacArthur. Of course, Mao immediately reversed course, and launched a full-scale military intervention to prop Kim up. But what if, somehow, Mao is persuaded to stick to this line, and not intervene in Korea?
 
Kim Il-sung goes north of the Yalu, and MacArthur most likely declares war on China and invades Manchuria.
Nobody's enough to handle his ego, not even Mao.
 
Kim Il-sung goes north of the Yalu, and MacArthur most likely declares war on China and invades Manchuria.
Nobody's enough to handle his ego, not even Mao.

Except Truman. Truman will not countenance this. Domestically, there will be a massive bonus to have the war be over by Christmas, and involving China is insanely cocky brinksmanship that could well lead to a wider war.
 
Well, had MacArthur listened to the evermounting evidence of danger then Mao wouldn't have intervened. Of course he was a racist who said things about the Asiatic. Then he found out that his ideas were very, very, wrong.
 
I don't believe MacArthur will cross the Yalu River. Whatever his faults, MacArthur would not take it upon himself to start a war with China. Even if he did, any preparations to do so would quickly become apparent within the chain of command, and Truman and the JCS would put a stop to it before anything happened.

There would be a united Korea under Seoul. Most US forces would leave, although there are likely to be some bases, especially in the south, in case Korea gets invaded again.

Internal Korean politics are more likely to change ITTL then the international order as a whole with one exception. Without the precedence of a Chinese invasion of Korea, then there are lots of butterflies in regards to Vietnam. The French might be heavily supported without an ongoing ulcer fighting the Chinese in Korea.
 
Internal Korean politics are more likely to change ITTL then the international order as a whole with one exception.

There are other exceptions.


  • With the whole country in the RoK, with substantially less damages and costs from the war, without the massive expense of military preparations against another Nork invasion, Korea's economy develops bigger and faster than OTL. Korea today is close to a peer of the major European countries in GDP despite these burdens; without them it would have reached that status much sooner, and possibly surpassed it.
  • A quick decisive victory in Korea greatly improves the political position of Presdent Truman. He will probably get the Democrat nomination in 1952 and may well be re-elected.
  • Macarthur as the victor in Korea has a much better shot at the Republican nomination in 1952.
Without the precedence of a Chinese invasion of Korea, then there are lots of butterflies in regards to Vietnam. The French might be heavily supported without an ongoing ulcer fighting the Chinese in Korea.

Or more likely, during the 1960s, the U.S. and RoVN invade the North. U.S. planners won't be afraid of Chinese intervention.

And Korea will be huge precedent for "rollback" even before that. If Castro comes to power and goes Communist, the U.S. probably takes him out at once - maybe with a larger Bay of Pigs operation.

There is even a remote chance of Western intervention in support of Hungary.
 
There are other exceptions.

I said exceptions to the international order. The domestic Korean economy, and domestic US politics are not international relations issues.

What happens in Vietnam really depends on how the First Indochina War plays out. Hard to speculate what happens until that is resolved. It could play out like OTL with division of the country and US intervention, or it could be wildly different.

No chance of US intervention in Hungary in a 1956 scenario.

Invasion of Cuba is possible, but the dynamics are very different. Huge change between direct intervention in a country's internal politics, and a UN sponsored intervention to stop the conquest of a country by another state.
 
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