WI: Mao dies from snake bite during the long march

This would be business as usual in China. Mao is credited with 80 million deaths but the Rebellions of the 19 century killed or caused to die 100 million or more.

When I studied this period. The number of death attributed to Mao by researchers was between 15-30 million. I have since heard 50 and now 80 million, but these seem to be just numbers being thrown around.

In the 19th century Chinese population contracted dramatically from wars and famines. This will likely continue with no unification. Probably hundreds of millions of people will also not be born. Whatever ideology that unifies China after this extend period of strife will unlikely be a kind and gentle one.
 
I don't see where the snake bite thing comes from. If you want to kill Mao before he's made it to Yan'an, any of the so-called Four Extermination Campaigns launched by the Nationalists between 1931 and 1933 will do. Its probable successor would be Zhang Guotao.

And without Mao, the odds are there won't be a PRC, at least as we know it. The most likely outcome, barring unforeseen butterflies, would be a Democratic Republic of Manchuria under the Soviet thumb, with the rest of China under Nationalist rule.

Are there lots of nasty snakes in China?
 
Just passing through and came across this and thought I'd weigh in.

My studies of the region and this period (not calling myself an expert, but at least an educated figure) would suggest to me that while the loss of such a charismatic focal point would be damaging to the CCP, it would not lead to its destruction, nor even necessarily to its defeat. Mao, while certainly a figure of fundamental importance, was hardly the linchpin of the movement.

I would tentatively (predicating more detailed research be conducted) predict that the death of Mao at this time would lead to the likely ascendancy of either Liu Shaoqi or Zhou Enlai to leadership (I had heard Zhang Guotao suggested as a possible replacement, but I do not personally think he had enough clout left to really seize leadership by Yannan).

Likewise tentatively, I feel that while this might delay the Communist victory in the Civil War, it would not necessarily prevent it. With this in mind, I would put forth the question of how an ongoing Civil War into the 1950's would impact the Korean War, as how this would effect the nature and extent of American intervention is likely to be of import the ultimate victor in the Civil War.
 
Well if the CCP comes out of the Long March with Mao dead, perhaps leading to infighting over leadership, loss of figurehead etc. The Soviets might very well have gone whole hog to supporting the Nationalists (a realpolitik partnership along the lines taken with the Arabs in the 60s-70s) as Stalin was never totally swayed to bet everything on his Chinese comrades.
 
I agree with Guangxu's post. We can definitely still have a CCP without Mao.

But what happens when we throw the Returned Students into the mix? If Wang Ming and his pro-Soviet group gained enough influence, the CCP could become more or less a tool of Moscow's. And as plenty of people have said before, Stalin was in no rush at all to see a Communist victory in China.

So might the CCP continue to hold onto their base areas around Yan'an into the 1950s as a kind of semi-autonomous region?
 
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