WI Mao dies early

  • Thread starter Deleted member 14881
  • Start date

Deleted member 14881

WI mao dies in 1954 ,and with no screwup of his rule what will happen
 
Well, had Mao died 20 years earlier than OTL, we say a vehicular accident. Liu Shaoqi with Deng Xiaoping as his right man will take over China and opens the China to foreign investment 20 years earlier which results to more prosperous China by now. China will be the largest economy in the world, doubles the US economy. China's standard of living will be comparable to Taiwan or Korea. China's traditional culture will be mostly preserved. China's population will be less than a billion. Maybe, Vietnam War escalation will be prevented. Korean peninsula will be reunited by now. Taiwan will be reunited right now.
 
Well, had Mao died 20 years earlier than OTL, we say a vehicular accident. Liu Shaoqi with Deng Xiaoping as his right man will take over China and opens the China to foreign investment 20 years earlier which results to more prosperous China by now. China will be the largest economy in the world, doubles the US economy. China's standard of living will be comparable to Taiwan or Korea. China's traditional culture will be mostly preserved. China's population will be less than a billion. Maybe, Vietnam War escalation will be prevented. Korean peninsula will be reunited by now. Taiwan will be reunited right now.


Wow, Thats very optimistic
 
China is MUCH better off without the nightmare that was the cultural revolution, and china can modernise much less painfully.
 
Well, had Mao died 20 years earlier than OTL, we say a vehicular accident. Liu Shaoqi with Deng Xiaoping as his right man will take over China and opens the China to foreign investment 20 years earlier which results to more prosperous China by now. China will be the largest economy in the world, doubles the US economy. China's standard of living will be comparable to Taiwan or Korea. China's traditional culture will be mostly preserved. China's population will be less than a billion. Maybe, Vietnam War escalation will be prevented. Korean peninsula will be reunited by now. Taiwan will be reunited right now.

What happened to Taiwan and Korea to make them the way they are now would not happen to China regardless of when Mao dies. In fact without the need to compete with China, Taiwan's standard of living in a timeline where Mao dies early may be much lower than it is OTL. China is also incredibly huge. Any modernization is going to be very slow due to the sheer size of the population and country and the amount of cultural inertia that would exist without a Cultural Revolution to wipe away much of the old ways of thinking.
 

Typo

Banned
Well, had Mao died 20 years earlier than OTL, we say a vehicular accident. Liu Shaoqi with Deng Xiaoping as his right man will take over China and opens the China to foreign investment 20 years earlier which results to more prosperous China by now. China will be the largest economy in the world, doubles the US economy. China's standard of living will be comparable to Taiwan or Korea. China's traditional culture will be mostly preserved. China's population will be less than a billion. Maybe, Vietnam War escalation will be prevented. Korean peninsula will be reunited by now. Taiwan will be reunited right now.
That is far far too optimistic, and probably impossible.

But sparing China the cultural revolution helps.
 
More central planning, more state control of the economy, fewer batshit insane ventures like the Great Leap Forward or the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, for starters. Instead of being the random collection of lunacies that it was during the later Maoist era, China is likely to be a rather staid and boring Communist state for the foreseeable future. Doubtless we'll see the Second Five-Year Plan fully implemented in 1958, coming on the heels of the more or less wildly successful First Five-Year Plan. Although Liu Shaoqi's position as Mao's designated successor isn't as strong as it would have been had Mao kicked the bucket a few years later, I don't see anyone else rising to the top in the short term. Further, given that you've butterflied Peng Dehuai's downfall, you've also moved towards a more professional and less political People's Liberation Army, which means less Lin Biao, which is always a good thing. It's also likely that China and the USSR bury the hatchet, at least in the short term, which means more Soviet aid (a good thing) and much more adherence by the PRC to the Soviet line in foreign affairs, now that Mao is out of the picture. In short, China will be more communist.

In the short and the medium term, this shouldn't be considered a bad thing. As noted earlier, the First Five-Year Plan was pretty successful, all things considered, though characterized by an over-reliance on heavy industry (fairly sure though not positive that the Second Five-Year Plan hoped to address that imbalance in some regard). Also, China really has nowhere to go but up at this time, assuming that you don't tell a few hundred million peasants to go out and make steel in the backyard instead of, you know, growing crops. Thinking long term, and disregarding the thirty-plus years of butterflies that will have accumulated, assuming that the Warsaw Pact nations collapse in the late 1980s and early 1990s as per OTL, one wonders what the reaction in China would be. Without the GPCR as a sobering reminder of what student movements can turn into, perhaps the leadership takes a more lenient line towards any sort of alt-Tiananmen with overtones of May 4th Movement that develops. Or perhaps not. This is really all a bit stream of consciousness, so I'll stop talking now.
 
If Deng Xiaoping is allowed to make his reforms much earlier, he might find a friend in Khrushchev and we might some kind of exchange of ideas between USSR and PRC. That might lead to somewhat better Soviet economy, especially with such a big trade partner like China and less money spent on weapons. Who knows, China might even join the Warsaw Pact or ComeCon. So both those organisations might last longer, with Eastern Europe still under Soviet domination in 1990s.
 
Sino-Soviet split is inevitable no matter what will happens, China is too big to bow the knees to the Soviets and earlier liberalization of economy (opening the economy to the West) although there's a central planning will just alienates the Soviets as in OTL.
 
That is far far too optimistic, and probably impossible.

I'm just posting the best case scenario, but in the base case, China will have to continue the central planning for 10 years although it opens the economy to the west 20 years earlier. Liu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai, and Deng Xiaoping are not really interested to communist ideology to be imposed in China fully, they just thought as an unifying force for China. China will be more democratic than in OTL.

But sparing China the cultural revolution helps.

That's exactly, China will be spared from the damages of the Cultural Revolution.
 
If Deng Xiaoping is allowed to make his reforms much earlier, he might find a friend in Khrushchev and we might some kind of exchange of ideas between USSR and PRC. That might lead to somewhat better Soviet economy, especially with such a big trade partner like China and less money spent on weapons. Who knows, China might even join the Warsaw Pact or ComeCon. So both those organisations might last longer, with Eastern Europe still under Soviet domination in 1990s.

China are not really interested to be a Soviet ally in a long-term. China prefers to be a non-aligned nation. Zhou Enlai or even Deng Xiaoping are not really interested with the Soviets.
 
If China opens up earlier it means it will reach higher level of living sooner. And that means it will require more resurces sooner as well. Imagine Chinese requreinments for oil going steady up at the same time as OPEC 1970s embargo.
 
Originally posted by aktarian
If China opens up earlier it means it will reach higher level of living sooner. And that means it will require more resurces sooner as well. Imagine Chinese requreinments for oil going steady up at the same time as OPEC 1970s embargo.

And guess which communist country has vast resources of oil?
 
Top