WI Mao dies 1962

Ironically this may delay/halt the economic reform process and therefore:

1.) prevent/handicap the PRC from becoming a major economic power like it is today.

-OR-

2.) Give greater strength to the 1989 protests.
 

raharris1973

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Well could the [Soviet] technicians come back? And would our new triumvarite take the hard ideological stances that drove the split?

Very unlikely, the foreign policy would be under the aegis of Zhou, who opened China to the US.

I'm not sure it follows that Zhou's willingness to open to the US in the early 70s means he would dismiss a chance to reconcile with the USSR in the early 1960s. Remember, Zhou's diplomacy with the Americans took place once that was what Mao wanted to do (and Zhou was subservient to Mao) and after strife with the USSR had escalated from ideological debate to military confrontation. Zhou had good relations with the Soviets when that was still kosher in the PRC, he was one of the palbearers at Stalin's funeral and was called in to assist Soviet diplomacy in Hungary and Poland in 1956.
 
I thought the Great Leap Forward pushed them towards the path of market reform... guess not.

But really, Zhou Enli made the "Four Modernizations" IOTLin 1963. Perhaps Zhou Enlai enacts this with a more socialist approach, rather than an outwardly-market one?
 
It might ironically slow down the reform process in the future, without the cultural revolution both the institutional power and moral credibility of the CCP is far higher, which makes it much harder to go down the road of capitalism.



Absolutely, the Soviets were not particularly enthusiastic about the rivalry in the first place.

After the Great Leap Forward, due to how Mao had discredited himself, the real power was in the hands of Zhou, Liu, and Deng. Before Mao instigated the Cultural Revolution, reforms were occurring, and at a steady pace. Without the damage of the Cultural Revolution, Zhou, Liu, and Deng don't need to worry about being killed, hunted, jailed, or beaten up, and can instead focus on reforms. Although the initial pace might be slower, the end result will likely be similar enough, due to the fact that no disruptions were made by Mao and his Gang of Idiots.


I thought the Great Leap Forward pushed them towards the path of market reform... guess not.

But really, Zhou Enli made the "Four Modernizations" IOTLin 1963. Perhaps Zhou Enlai enacts this with a more socialist approach, rather than an outwardly-market one?

It absolutely did. Mao managed to disprove himself in the eyes of the party. Hell, he launched the Cultural Revolution because he felt like he was losing control over them.

As for Zhou Enlai, you are correct in that the Four Modernizations, in OTL associated with Deng, were his idea. In a world where Mao kicks the bucket earlier, Liu Shaoqi could probably get around to getting it all done. Furthermore, they would have less resistance from Maoists, due to the fact that they have Zhou Enlai with them.
 
So indeeed I was correct with my assumption. Market reforms were inevitable after the Great Leap Forward. If anything, China might have already surpassed the American economy a few years ago had reforms started a decade or so earlier.

If the triumvirate enacts a neutral foreign policy of normalization and boosting ties with the US (like OTL) and carefully treading a detenté with the Soviets (impossible to re-ally with them because of the split), their economt will be boosted even more.
 
I'm reminded of a quote by Chen Yun, a leading official in the Party from the '50s through the early '90s, and one of Deng's "Eight Elders":
"Had Mao died in 1956, his achievements would have been immortal. Had he died in 1966, he would still have been a great man but flawed. But he died in 1976. Alas, what can one say?"

I'm not quite willing to believe that had Mao died prior to the Cultural Revolution (or even just stayed away from the reins of power, but he was too much of a narcissist for that to happen), then the economic reforms that Deng implemented would have been inevitable. Even after the twin disasters of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution tarnished Mao Zedong Thought in the eyes of many Party leaders (even if they couldn't say so openly), Deng still faced much resistance to his economic policies. Without them, or even without just the Cultural Revolution, many wouldn't see the need for such policies. Mao's legacy had been tainted enough where they were willing to try something new. Without those black marks, it's likely Soviet-style planning would've remained the order of the day for China.
 

raharris1973

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FYI 2 fresh threads were just started on this topic, one on Chinese diplomacy if Mao dies early (1956) and another on the Chinese economy if he dies early (1956)
 
I'm reminded of a quote by Chen Yun, a leading official in the Party from the '50s through the early '90s, and one of Deng's "Eight Elders":


I'm not quite willing to believe that had Mao died prior to the Cultural Revolution (or even just stayed away from the reins of power, but he was too much of a narcissist for that to happen), then the economic reforms that Deng implemented would have been inevitable. Even after the twin disasters of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution tarnished Mao Zedong Thought in the eyes of many Party leaders (even if they couldn't say so openly), Deng still faced much resistance to his economic policies. Without them, or even without just the Cultural Revolution, many wouldn't see the need for such policies. Mao's legacy had been tainted enough where they were willing to try something new. Without those black marks, it's likely Soviet-style planning would've remained the order of the day for China.
It's a fair point - the disaster of the Cultural Revolution was an incredible weapon for Deng to smash the Maoists with. Keep in mind though, this isn't a reform initiated by Deng Xiaoping, the dude who had gotten purged. This is a reform initiated by Zhou Enlai, one of the most respected members of the CCP, through Liu Shaoqi, Mao's designated successor.
 
Yeah, in my opinion, Zhou gets reforms passed. The reformists keep their highest leaders (Liu, Zhou, Deng), and the three were powerful, esp. after the GLF.

Keep in mind that pro-reformers (or at least, not radical Maoists) like Zhu De, Peng Dehuai, Ye Jianying, etc. would be in a good position, too.

Perhaps they can paint the GLF as a failure of a planned economy? After all, it's planned.
 
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Yeah, in my opinion, Zhou gets reforms passed. The reformists keep their highest leaders (Liu, Zhou, Deng), and the three were powerful, esp. after the GLF.

Keep in mind that pro-reformers (or at least, not radical Maoists) like Zhu De, Peng Dehuai, Ye Jianying, etc. would be in a good position, too.

Perhaps they can paint the GLF as a failure of a planned economy? After all, it's planned.
Aye - they would definitely go for "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics".
 

RousseauX

Donor
After the Great Leap Forward, due to how Mao had discredited himself, the real power was in the hands of Zhou, Liu, and Deng. Before Mao instigated the Cultural Revolution, reforms were occurring, and at a steady pace. Without the damage of the Cultural Revolution, Zhou, Liu, and Deng don't need to worry about being killed, hunted, jailed, or beaten up, and can instead focus on reforms. Although the initial pace might be slower, the end result will likely be similar enough, due to the fact that no disruptions were made by Mao and his Gang of Idiots.
Before 1966 Deng and Liu were reforming towards running a Soviet style command economy. The reforms weren't towards what China looked like post-1979
 

RousseauX

Donor
Aye - they would definitely go for "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics".
Why?

Soviet style Socialism wasn't discredited in the early 1960s, and with a more stable Chinese economy and society it might not be discredited by the 1980s in the upper ranks of the CCP either
 

raharris1973

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No it wasn't, it probably wasn't all that inevitable even in the 1980s before the USSR collapsed

Except for those market reforms the PRC enacted between 79 and 91, which were substantial, especially in the agriculture and light industrial sectors.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Except for those market reforms the PRC enacted between 79 and 91, which were substantial, especially in the agriculture and light industrial sectors.
They weren't quite inevitable, one of the misconceptions about the Deng era was that Deng was a dictator with Mao-like powers when in reality he wasn't. He was first among equals in a cliche of 8-10 party elders which ran the country and some other members of the clique had almost as much power as Deng did. Conservatives like Chen Yun were deeply uncomfortable of the reforms for "cultural" reasons because it allowed "spiritual pollution" into the country, after 1989 the conservatives felt validated and sidelined Deng and it took years before Deng re-asserted the importance of economic reform in 1993.

It was entirely possible that a conservative clique could have greatly slowed down the reform process in the 80s until they died/were too sick/the collapse of the USSR discredited Socialism completely in the early 1990s.
 
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