WI Manzikert Leaders Survive?

I'm talking about Romanos IV Diogenes and Alp Arslan, Emperor of the Romans and Sultan of the Sejuks respectively. Particularly, I'm really interested in the peace these two leaders agreed to following the famous battle. From Wikipedia:

Wikipedia said:
When the Emperor Romanos IV was conducted into the presence of Alp Arslan, he refused to believe that the bloodied and tattered man covered in dirt was the mighty Emperor of the Romans. After discovering the identity of the Emperor, he placed his boot on the Emperor's neck and forced him to kiss the ground. A famous conversation is also reported to have taken place:

Alp Arslan: "What would you do if I were brought before you as a prisoner?"
Romanos: "Perhaps I'd kill you, or exhibit you in the streets of Constantinople."
Alp Arslan: "My punishment is far heavier. I forgive you, and set you free."


Alp Arslan treated Romanos with considerable kindness and again offered the terms of peace which he had offered previous to the battle.
Romanos remained a captive of the Sultan for a week. During this time, the Sultan allowed Romanos to eat at his table whilst concessions were agreed; Antioch, Edessa, Hierapolis and Manzikert were to be surrendered. This would have left the vital core of Anatolia untouched. A payment of 10 million gold pieces demanded by the Sultan as a ransom for Romanos was deemed as too high by the latter so the Sultan reduced its short-term expense by instead asking for 1.5 million gold pieces as an initial payment followed by an annual sum of 360,000 gold pieces. Plus, a marriage alliance was prepared between Arslan’s son and Romanos’ daughter. The Sultan then gave Romanos many presents and an escort of two emirs and one hundred Mamelukes on his route to Constantinople.

But both men died within 16 months. Saving Alp Arslan in an ATL is easy enough -- when confronting his would be assassin, just have him either agree to let his soldiers defend him or, even easier, just not slip when he unleashes his arrow. Given his age, he could have lived to the end of the Christian century, easily.

Romanos, I'll grant, is trickier -- at the least, he needs to thwart the Doukas family's coup (possibly by beating them in battle?) and make it back to Rome. What's important for our purposes is that he gets the peace deal reached with Arslan officially sanctioned; if he still gets overthrown at some point, the important thing is that his successor doesn't look to throw out his peace deal with the Sejuks.

So, all that said -- what happens next? How would history have been changed if the leaders of Manzikert had survived long enough to preserve their peace?

CONSOLIDATION: To start off with -- would there be a First Crusade?
 
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I'm not sure if Romanos can survive the political fallout of giving up Antioch, to be honest. The city was tremendously important to Roman control of the East- it acted as the pivot point between Cilicia, Syria, Cyprus and the Euphrates. "Merely" giving up Antioch, then, is not a small deal. Note also that the Komnenoi spent much more serious effort in attempting to hold Antioch than they did on retaking the Anatolian plateau.
 
I'm not sure if Romanos can survive the political fallout of giving up Antioch, to be honest. The city was tremendously important to Roman control of the East- it acted as the pivot point between Cilicia, Syria, Cyprus and the Euphrates. "Merely" giving up Antioch, then, is not a small deal.

Oh, I hardly think it is -- hence my concession that Romanos would by "trickier", and allowing for him to be overthrown in the medium term. What may need to happen is for Alp to actually get a hold on Antioch before a new Emperor both emerges and gets a direct hold of it. Actually, looking over some stuff, I wonder if Brachamios wouldn't have a role to play in this? :rolleyes:
 

MAlexMatt

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I'm not sure if Romanos can survive the political fallout of giving up Antioch, to be honest. The city was tremendously important to Roman control of the East- it acted as the pivot point between Cilicia, Syria, Cyprus and the Euphrates. "Merely" giving up Antioch, then, is not a small deal. Note also that the Komnenoi spent much more serious effort in attempting to hold Antioch than they did on retaking the Anatolian plateau.

That had a lot to do with the tax potential of Antioch and less to do with its strategic importance vis a vie the plateau. I think it might be Warren Treadgold who wonders whether they rightly understood the geographic layout in order to properly assess the strategic situation.
 
That had a lot to do with the tax potential of Antioch and less to do with its strategic importance vis a vie the plateau. I think it might be Warren Treadgold who wonders whether they rightly understood the geographic layout in order to properly assess the strategic situation.

That's certainly a factor in the effects of the peace surviving (that the ERE wouldn't necessarily be weakening its eastern borders that much), but if we're talking about the how -- well, it's still tricky...
 
That had a lot to do with the tax potential of Antioch and less to do with its strategic importance vis a vie the plateau. I think it might be Warren Treadgold who wonders whether they rightly understood the geographic layout in order to properly assess the strategic situation.

Not disputing the importance of Antioch in that regard (IIRC, it was the only city in the Empire besides Constantinople and Thessalonica that was wealthy enough to provide its citizens with a grain dole), but there were definite important strategic reasons for wanting to hold Antioch and that whole region of northern Syria and the upper Euphrates. Take a look at Peter Frankopan's analysis, for example.
 
Anyway, surviving Alp Arslan brings up some interesting possibilities. He'll invade Egypt, that's for sure, though I'm not too sure how easy this would be. The Fatimids are past their prime, but they're still pretty formidable- I could see this ending in a bloody stalemate. Arslan may encourage the Turkomans to move their raiding away from the Caucasus and eastern Anatolia, and towards the much wealthier lands of Egypt instead, to deal with this incessant problem.
 
Anyway, surviving Alp Arslan brings up some interesting possibilities. He'll invade Egypt, that's for sure, though I'm not too sure how easy this would be. The Fatimids are past their prime, but they're still pretty formidable- I could see this ending in a bloody stalemate.

This is a major point -- if the Fatimids aren't an issue circa 1100, that alone would curb any attempt at starting a Crusade...
 
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