WI: Manual recount of all Florida votes in 2000?

[Sabot Cat]

As you know, in OTL, the Gore legal team only asked four counties to do a manual recount. This was challenged by Bush's lawyers as a violation of the equal protection clause, and even if it wasn't stopped, this strategy would've shown Bush to be the winner anyway.

But what if Gore has the prescience to request a full manual recount of all of Florida's counties? According to the Washington Post, Gore would have been certified as the winner by a margin of at least 60 votes, and at most 171 votes.

What would be the legal situation be from there? Would the recount be allowed to proceed, because all counties are being asked to review their ballots pursuant to the equal protection clause? Could Republican officials in Florida or in Congress throw a spanner in the works somehow?

 

[Plumber]

If the Florida State Supreme court ordered a mandatory recount and a statewide method to count the votes, that significantly cuts into Kennedy and O'Connor's decision. That's what Breyer wanted. O'Connor and Kennedy didn't want the courts to set a statewide method to count the votes, because then they would have no reason to halt the recount. It's possible that O'Connor and Kennedy declare that the Florida Supreme Court has no right to mandate a statewide method to count the votes, though that would be far more nakedly partisan than even the OTL case.

 

[Sabot Cat]

If the Florida State Supreme court ordered a mandatory recount and a statewide method to count the votes, that significantly cuts into Kennedy and O'Connor's decision. That's what Breyer wanted. O'Connor and Kennedy didn't want the courts to set a statewide method to count the votes, because then they would have no reason to halt the recount. It's possible that O'Connor and Kennedy declare that the Florida Supreme Court has no right to mandate a statewide method to count the votes, though that would be far more nakedly partisan than even the OTL case.

So is it likely that the Supreme Court would be that transparently political, or would they just refuse to hear the case and let the Florida Supreme Court's ruling stand?

 

[Sanderford]

I'm pretty confident that Bush would have still won Florida, regardless of what the Washington Post shrieks. The only thing it would have accomplished is making Al Gore suffer a bit more before his defeat was confirmed.

Barack H. Obama did not "steal" either of the elections he won, and neither did George W. Bush.

 

[Plumber]

So is it likely that the Supreme Court would be that transparently political, or would they just refuse to hear the case and let the Florida Supreme Court's ruling stand?

It's less likely they hold the case, but they still might anyways.

 

[Sabot Cat]

I'm pretty confident that Bush would have still won Florida, regardless of what the Washington Post shrieks. The only thing it would have accomplished is making Al Gore suffer a bit more before his defeat was confirmed.

I'm not sure why I should inherently distrust the Washington Post (which I was surprised to discover to be the recipient of 47 Pulitzer Prizes), but to corroborate their information here's a report from the Associated Press:

"A vote-by-vote review of untallied ballots in the 2000 Florida presidential election indicates George W. Bush would have narrowly prevailed in the partial recounts sought by Al Gore, but Gore might have reversed the outcome – by the barest of margins – had he pursued and gained a complete statewide recount."

It's less likely they hold the case, but they still might anyways.

Unless there's a possible swing vote among the judges, I guess everything would go as per OTL, although with less public approval of President George W. Bush upon inauguration.

 

[Falecius]

May I say that any sane country would have dropped the existing electoral system afterm such a performance? (And I definitely do not count my own country among the same ones in this department). Or at least stopped pretending to be the utmost accomplishment of the ideal of democracy and trying to enforce such a notion through superior firepower on the top of it?

 

[Pellegrino]

I tend to think that Bush would eventually have been declared the winner after a much longer recount. But the interesting question may not be "who" but "when". I can imagine the recount across the state would be a total mess, with heavily Democratic and Republican counties accused of fraud by the other party. This could delay the process while a series of lawsuits over issues like "dimpled chads" get furthur litigated. As a result, we might have gotten to January of 2001 with no winner determined, which could have led to Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert being named President of the United States, for at least a little while.

 

[Sanderford]

I tend to think that Bush would eventually have been declared the winner after a much longer recount. But the interesting question may not be "who" but "when". I can imagine the recount across the state would be a total mess, with heavily Democratic and Republican counties accused of fraud by the other party. This could delay the process while a series of lawsuits over issues like "dimpled chads" get furthur litigated. As a result, we might have gotten to January of 2001 with no winner determined, which could have led to Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert being named President of the United States, for at least a little while.

I could actually see this happening, and while it would have been...bracing to live it in real life, it would certainly be interesting to red in a story.

 

[John Farson]

I tend to think that Bush would eventually have been declared the winner after a much longer recount. But the interesting question may not be "who" but "when". I can imagine the recount across the state would be a total mess, with heavily Democratic and Republican counties accused of fraud by the other party. This could delay the process while a series of lawsuits over issues like "dimpled chads" get furthur litigated. As a result, we might have gotten to January of 2001 with no winner determined, which could have led to Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert being named President of the United States, for at least a little while.

No, that's not how it would have worked. It would have gone to Congress, Joe Lieberman would have been elected Vice-President by the Senate, and if there was still no resolution by January 20th he would have been sworn in as the acting POTUS until the mess was resolved, with the election going to the House if necessary.

 

[Pellegrino]

I could actually see this happening, and while it would have been...bracing to live it in real life, it would certainly be interesting to red in a story.

I can't imagine it dragging on past September of 2001, but it would be a very interesting TL if the final tally was still in dispute on 9/11

 

[Sanderford]

I can't imagine it dragging on past September of 2001, but it would be a very interesting TL if the final tally was still in dispute on 9/11

That would have solidified things one way or the other, I'm sure.

 

[Sabot Cat]

No, that's not how it would have worked. It would have gone to Congress, Joe Lieberman would have been elected Vice-President by the Senate, and if there was still no resolution by January 20th he would have been sworn in as the acting POTUS until the mess was resolved, with the election going to the House if necessary.

But how would it be legally thrown to Congress? If the Supreme Court doesn't get the last word in, then the Florida Supreme Court would be the ones to decide how the Electoral College votes of Florida will be allocated in pursuance to their standing laws, trumping the local legislature (from my understanding of checks and balances).

 

[John Farson]

But how would it be legally thrown to Congress? If the Supreme Court doesn't get the last word in, then the Florida Supreme Court would be the ones to decide how the Electoral College votes of Florida will be allocated in pursuance to their standing laws, trumping the local legislature (from my understanding of checks and balances).

If Florida is unable to complete their recount before the constitutional obligated opening of the electoral votes, then it goes to the House of Representatives. Here's a good post that sums it up:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=8216344&postcount=44

 

[Sabot Cat]

If Florida is unable to complete their recount before the constitutional obligated opening of the electoral votes, then it goes to the House of Representatives. Here's a good post that sums it up:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=8216344&postcount=44

That's fascinating, and something along the lines what I would've wanted to do with this Point of Divergence. What sources do they use in their thinking that those resignations and abstentions would occur?