WI:Manfred wins Battle of Benevento

I just read a nice magazine article on this and thought i'd put it up. What if Manfred Hohenstaufen won the Battle of Benevento? How long will the Hohenstaufen continue to rule Sicily? Can Manfred expand his domain?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Benevento

Very much like his father, Frederick II, he continued the ambitions to dominate the Italian peninsula. Before the Angevin invasions he was meeting this with some success. I believe he would have played power politics acrooss the Adriatic among the polities there as he in OTL was dabbling in.
 
The long-term effects of this would depend mostly on the fate of Charles of Anjou. If Charles is killed, or forced to flee back to France, the Ghibellines would be at least temporarily ascendant in southern Italy. Pope Innocent would be left casting about for another ally whom he could send against the Hohenstaufens.

With Manfred alive and well, Conradin would have a choice of either battling his half brother in southern Italy, or remaining in Bavaria to secure his own throne. If he chose the later option, he would probably come into conflict with whatever rival Duke decided to accept the Pope's blessing as anti-king. Richard of Cornwall would be his most likely foe.

If his half-brother remained in Germany, Manfred would be the champion of the Ghibellines in Italy. That would mean invitations to liberate Rome, Florence, and other wealthy city-states.
 
In the long term is the Hohenstaufen position in Italy sustainable? Or is it only a matter of time before their pushed out?

I don't think it was inevitable for the Hohenstaufen position to fold as early as it did in Italy. Benevento and Tagliacozzo could have gone either way. Conrad IV, the immediate successor of Frederick II, could have lived longer ---he was doing very well in Italy before his death. Frederick II, himself, could have lived longer. At the time of his death, the Hohenstaufen had the momentum in Italy -- the Guelph were in retreat. Manfred had an important strategic alliance going with Aragon that helped to cement naval primacy in that region of the Med. He also had a ready supply of German troops, both mercenary or beholden to the Hohenstaufen cause. Benevento, with a greater display of tactical prowess on the part of Manfred could have been won by Manfred. His forces were defeated in detail, due to the limited egress of the one bridge leading into the battlefield.

In terms of the long term? Decisively beating Charles would have gone a long way towards preserving the Hohenstaufen in S. Italy at the least.
 
In the long term is the Hohenstaufen position in Italy sustainable? Or is it only a matter of time before their pushed out?

The problem with Manfred winning is that, as long as Conradin lives, he would potentially split the Hohenstaufen faction in Italy. Manfred's legitimacy depended on being a legitimate descendant of Fredrick II and the successor to Conrad IV, a claim that Conradin also made.

It would be possible for Conradin to reign in Bavaria (Swabia) but he could just as easily be drawn into conflict with his father's half brother. Southern Italy was at this time far richer than Swabia. It was also more politically stable; other than a source of mercenaries and a title, Swabia did not afford Conradin many resources, which was one reason why he, his father, and grandfather had focused most of their attention on Southern Italy for the last half-century.

By this point, the Hohenstaufen position depended on maintaining its alliance with Aragon, and continued success against the Pope and his supporters. The hostility of the Papacy of Clement IV was immutable at this point, so for long-term success the Hohenstaufens would either have to cow the College of Cardinals into electing a more pliable successor, or set up an Imperial anti-pope in Rome.
 
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so for long-term success the Hohenstaufens would either have to cow the College of Cardinals into electing a more pliable successor, or setting up an Imperial anti-pope in Rome.

Would setting up an Anti-Pope work, or would he be seen as completely illegitimate.I know Frederick Barbarossa set up an anti-pope with some level of success.
 
The problem with Manfred winning is that, as long as Conradin lives, he would potentially split the Hohenstaufen faction in Italy. Manfred's legitimacy depended on being a legitimate descendant of Fredrick II and the successor to Conrad IV, a claim that Conradin also made.

It would be possible for Conradin to reign in Bavaria (Swabia) but he could just as easily be drawn into conflict with his father's half brother. Southern Italy was at this time far richer than Swabia. It was also more politically stable; other than a source of mercenaries and a title, Swabia did not afford Conradin many resources, which was one reason why he, his father, and grandfather had focused most of their attention on Southern Italy for the last half-century.

I think a successful Manfred (one who defeats the Angevins) massively trumps a Conradin that had a limited (and distant) base of power and whose influential uncle, Louis, had pragmatically continued to hold him in check until Manfred's death (upon which, Louis refused to go South). Unless Manfred had become unpopular in his own realm, I find it hard to see Conradin making inroads against Manfred. Very few people in the South would have flocked to Conradin's banner prior to Manfred's death.
If the Pope uses Conradin as a political tool, he could be used as a rallying point for the Guelph cause (as counter-intuitive as that might seem) but that doesn't get him to Sicily. I think that just makes things more interesting in N. Italy.
A surviving Manfred, furthermore, if he was smart (and he generally was, on the political plane) would either prop up Conradin's position in Germany, to keep the youngster occupied with concerns closer to his Swabian home, or even have him assassinated.
 
Would setting up an Anti-Pope work, or would he be seen as completely illegitimate.I know Frederick Barbarossa set up an anti-pope with some level of success.

I'm not sure a Hohenstaufen, at this point, could install a successful Anti-Pope. Unless the Pope in Rome was unpopular and incompetent. (Although, Charles losing badly at Bebevento would certainly make inroads in the perceptions of the Pope being popular and competent) The Hohenstaufens seem to have been going up against a stream of particularly effective Popes, much to their chagrin. Any Anti-Popes would have to be instigated, I think, by other powerful parties. I don't know how plausible that even is.

If Charles loses bad and the Guelphs fall into disarray and Manfred decides to take Rome, either capturing or causing the Pope to flee, well, then things could really change in the balance of power between Hohenstaufen and Pope. This would make for a delicious POD for a surviving Hohenstaufen in Italy.
 
I'm not sure a Hohenstaufen, at this point, could install a successful Anti-Pope. Unless the Pope in Rome was unpopular and incompetent. (Although, Charles losing badly at Bebevento would certainly make inroads in the perceptions of the Pope being popular and competent) The Hohenstaufens seem to have been going up against a stream of particularly effective Popes, much to their chagrin. Any Anti-Popes would have to be instigated, I think, by other powerful parties. I don't know how plausible that even is.

If Charles loses bad and the Guelphs fall into disarray and Manfred decides to take Rome, either capturing or causing the Pope to flee, well, then things could really change in the balance of power between Hohenstaufen and Pope. This would make for a delicious POD for a surviving Hohenstaufen in Italy.



Delicious, but probably quite bloody for Germany and Italy. While it would be difficult to envision a more difficult half century for southern Italy (and especially Sicily) than OTL, Germany could certainly get worse. As long as the Pope remains at a loggerheads with the Hohenstaufens, the Imperial Interegnum is likely to continue. While another large war in Germany would not necessarily occur, this would strengthen the knights, counts, and Dukes. No legal ruler of Germany means more private warfare.

The problem for the Hohenstaufens, the the Ghibellines in general, was that the Pope had a great advantage in "soft" power. His armies and proxies could be defeated on the battlefield, but the reigning Pope could always lure another ambitious prince with the promise of a dispensation, territory in Italy or a golden rose. If inducements and excommunication was not enough, there was even the possibility of calling for a crusade.

The best outcome for the Church as a whole would have been some type of compromise, or a defeat for the Pope. The bishops of Rome were never less christian than when they were acting as princes of the papal states. Far from being a unifying force of Catholicism, the Popes stirred up wars between both powerful and proximate Christian princes.

Being forced to turn aside from its territorial ambitions might have allowed the Papacy to better manage the Church. To the extent that it continued to encourage wars, if half the plotting and spiritual incitement that were expended against Florence and Milan had been directed towards the Holy Land, Jerusalem might have have returned to Christian hands for at least a few generations.
 
Louis II of Bavaria did accompany Conradin (actually Conrad), when he crossed the alps, but he left him in Northern Italy.

A surviving duke Conrad IV of Swabia (Conradin), a surviving house of Hohenstaufen and thus a surviving duchy of Swabia will IMHO be interesting too.

Ending the 'Great Interregnum' and reclaiming the HRE will also require a more favourable Papacy. Manfred could aid in achieving that, but that may be helping his rival for the kingdom of Sicily, the legitimate Conrad II (Conradin).

Since I doubt that Conradin will want to give up the valuable kingdom of Sicily.

OTOH having the house of Hohenstaufen split in two branches, a German one and a Sicilian one might have been a good idea. Especially since it probably mean a less hostile Papacy, which will feel less surrounded.
 
If Manfred was victorious, might he suceed in arranging other useful alliances using his male children? Or would he turn to Aragon once again?
 
If Manfred was victorious, might he suceed in arranging other useful alliances using his male children? Or would he turn to Aragon once again?

I think Aragon was an essential ally. He might broaden his useful alliances but I don't think he'd lightly give up Aragon. Besides, there are only so many polities more powerful and relevant to Manfred and Sicily, to choose from.
 
OTOH having the house of Hohenstaufen split in two branches, a German one and a Sicilian one might have been a good idea. Especially since it probably mean a less hostile Papacy, which will feel less surrounded.

De facto, while Manfred was still alive, that in fact was the practical case.
 
Delicious, but probably quite bloody for Germany and Italy. While it would be difficult to envision a more difficult half century for southern Italy (and especially Sicily) than OTL, Germany could certainly get worse. As long as the Pope remains at a loggerheads with the Hohenstaufens, the Imperial Interegnum is likely to continue. While another large war in Germany would not necessarily occur, this would strengthen the knights, counts, and Dukes. No legal ruler of Germany means more private warfare.

The problem for the Hohenstaufens, the the Ghibellines in general, was that the Pope had a great advantage in "soft" power. His armies and proxies could be defeated on the battlefield, but the reigning Pope could always lure another ambitious prince with the promise of a dispensation, territory in Italy or a golden rose. If inducements and excommunication was not enough, there was even the possibility of calling for a crusade.

The best outcome for the Church as a whole would have been some type of compromise, or a defeat for the Pope. The bishops of Rome were never less christian than when they were acting as princes of the papal states. Far from being a unifying force of Catholicism, the Popes stirred up wars between both powerful and proximate Christian princes.

Being forced to turn aside from its territorial ambitions might have allowed the Papacy to better manage the Church. To the extent that it continued to encourage wars, if half the plotting and spiritual incitement that were expended against Florence and Milan had been directed towards the Holy Land, Jerusalem might have have returned to Christian hands for at least a few generations.

I think the longer the Hohenstaufen are functioning in Germany, the longer the Interregnum. Given the policies of Frederick II in Germany, during his reign, it would be extremely difficult for his successors to achieve more than a ceremonial control of Germany, as a best case scenario. Perhaps enough to retain the prestige of a HRE emperor, but probably irretrievably difficult to regain lost ground -- realistically, only Swabia and a few other regions of Germany remain as real Hohenstaufen fiefs. The best thing for a Conradin or theoretical surviving house Hohenstaufen in Germany is to recognize this.

Frederick was going for the riches and sophistication, latitude of action, and power of the South, with its fairly continual history under Hauteville and Hohenstaufen rule of the legitimacy and effectiveness of centralized government. And Frederick was a cultural Sicilian far more than he was German. He hardly spent any time in Germany, at all.

Frederick's immediate successor, Conrad, and then Manfred, both realized these realities. Germany was no more than a resource for them.

Absolutely, the Papacy had a tremendous soft (and temporal ) power in the service, as I previously indicated, of a couple of pretty competent Popes. The Hohenstaufen were not the only rulers of Europe who had their differences with the Pope at that time, though. Effective diplomacy might blunt the Pope's power. Again, if the anti-Hohenstaufen power-base in Italy is chastened enough to disunite them, a powerful ally to any Rome-sanctioned external invasions by an ambitious prince are going to be much less effective. Charles being crushed would be a powerful deterrent to such princes. I'm doubtful of an effective "crusade" being called by a Pope. Too many polities were already ignoring such calls and the Hohenstaufen were no Cathars. Apart from the Italian Guelph, I don't see the emotional resonance for such action.
 
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De facto, while Manfred was still alive, that in fact was the practical case.

IMHO unless both (I know Manfred had a daughter) would have had surviving issue, I'd say not really.

I think the longer the Hohenstaufen are functioning in Germany, the longer the Interregnum. Given the policies of Frederick II in Germany, during his reign, it would be extremely difficult for his successors to achieve more than a ceremonial control of Germany, as a best case scenario. Perhaps enough to retain the prestige of a HRE emperor, but probably irretrievably difficult to regain lost ground -- realistically, only Swabia and a few other regions of Germany remain as real Hohenstaufen fiefs. The best thing for a Conradin or theoretical surviving house Hohenstaufen in Germany is to recognize this.

Frederick was going for the riches and sophistication, latitude of action, and power of the South, with its fairly continual history under Hauteville and Hohenstaufen rule of the legitimacy and effectiveness of centralized government. And Frederick was a cultural Sicilian far more than he was German. He hardly spent any time in Germany, at all.

Frederick's immediate successor, Conrad, and then Manfred, both realized these realities. Germany was no more than a resource for them.

Absolutely, the Papacy had a tremendous soft (and temporal ) power in the service, as I previously indicated, of a couple of pretty competent Popes. The Hohenstaufen were not the only rulers of Europe who had their differences with the Pope at that time, though. Effective diplomacy might blunt the Pope's power. Again, if the anti-Hohenstaufen power-base in Italy is chastened enough to disunite them, a powerful ally to any Rome-sanctioned external invasions by an ambitious prince are going to be much less effective. Charles being crushed would be a powerful deterrent to such princes. I'm doubtful of an effective "crusade" being called by a Pope. Too many polities were already ignoring such calls and the Hohenstaufen were no Cathars. Apart from the Italian Guelph, I don't see the emotional resonance for such action.

Basically any surviving German Hohenstaufen would have to deal with the same restraints the IOTL houses of Habsburg and Luxembourg had to do. AFAIK it was Charles IV of Bohemia (Luxembourg), which ended the importance of the Imperial demesne (separate from the dynastic holdings) in all but name. However Frederick II did make a ridiculous amount of concessions north of the Alps.
That being said (written ;)) any ATL competent Hohenstaufen Emperor(-elect) can still make the most of it, as did competent OTL Habsburg and Luxembourg rulers.
They even might profit from their lineage too, after all their dynasty already had a history of sitting on the throne, whereas the houses of Luxembourg and Habsburg had to establish such a position from scratch.
All in all I'm less negative, if they can work with the constraints and provided they can concentrate on their possessions within the HRE.

The lure of Sicily, you described the advantages it had for the one ruling it directly. The HRE had potential too, but certainly at that point provided one could delegate to persons you didn't put there yourself.

Perhaps for the HRE it might have been better, if the Hohenstaufen never gained Sicily in the first place, though that's probably a different topic.
 
Perhaps for the HRE it might have been better, if the Hohenstaufen never gained Sicily in the first place, though that's probably a different topic.

Yes, that shipped had sailed, once Henry VI married Constance and of course, once he'd actually conquered Sicily. Probably you could consider the seeds planted even earlier, by his father and his imperial ambitions in Italy.

They took the title of HRE very seriously.
 
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