Paul Kelly said in his book Triumph and Demise:
What if Turnbull had remained leader, as many experts had preferred? The answer is speculative, by definition, yet the likely result is not difficult to discern. The psychology of politics would have been transformed; Rudd would have carried his carbon scheme and become for the ages a Labour leader worshipped as another Whitlam or Keating; Rudd would have remained undisputed leader through 2010; the risky carbon pricing issue would have been taken off the table with Turnbull co-sponsor of Rudd's policy; the conservative side would have sunk into crisis with bitter relations between the Liberals and Nationals and a poisonous mood inside the Liberal Party with Turnbull's leadership in permanent jeopardy; the media narrative would have focused on the internal Liberal crisis, making the Coalition unelectable; in this situation Rudd would have won the 2010 election. Labor would have avoided minority government, the alliance with the Greens and Gillard's destructive carbon tax broken promise.