WI Malcolm Turnbull Remains Leader of the Opposition

What if Malcolm Turnbull-Australia's new PM- was not overthrown by Tony Abbott in 2009, and had led the Coalition into the 2010 election? How would have he performed? Would he have become PM? How would Australian politics and policy be effected? What if?
 
What if Malcolm Turnbull-Australia's new PM- was not overthrown by Tony Abbott in 2009, and had led the Coalition into the 2010 election? How would have he performed? Would he have become PM? How would Australian politics and policy be effected? What if?

AIUI, he's more popular with the left, cause he's not quite so reactionary on social issues. But would he have done differently with the economy? If not, then Tony Abbot would have drawn the knives yesterday and he'd be PM now.

Regicide seems to be rather in fashion in Australian politics.
 
Well Australia would have an emissions trading scheme up and running by the time PM Kevin Rudd went to Copenhagen Climate Summit. Which probably wouldn't change much overall but if linked in to the EU scheme could be the start of something bigger.
 
Paul Kelly said in his book Triumph and Demise:
What if Turnbull had remained leader, as many experts had preferred? The answer is speculative, by definition, yet the likely result is not difficult to discern. The psychology of politics would have been transformed; Rudd would have carried his carbon scheme and become for the ages a Labour leader worshipped as another Whitlam or Keating; Rudd would have remained undisputed leader through 2010; the risky carbon pricing issue would have been taken off the table with Turnbull co-sponsor of Rudd's policy; the conservative side would have sunk into crisis with bitter relations between the Liberals and Nationals and a poisonous mood inside the Liberal Party with Turnbull's leadership in permanent jeopardy; the media narrative would have focused on the internal Liberal crisis, making the Coalition unelectable; in this situation Rudd would have won the 2010 election. Labor would have avoided minority government, the alliance with the Greens and Gillard's destructive carbon tax broken promise.
 

Pangur

Donor
"the conservative side would have sunk into crisis with bitter relations between the Liberals and Nationals and a poisonous mood inside the Liberal Party with Turnbull's leadership in permanent jeopardy; the media narrative would have focused on the internal Liberal crisis, making the Coalition unelectable"

To a degree thats wha we have now So back then perhaps/quite likely.
 
"the conservative side would have sunk into crisis with bitter relations between the Liberals and Nationals and a poisonous mood inside the Liberal Party with Turnbull's leadership in permanent jeopardy; the media narrative would have focused on the internal Liberal crisis, making the Coalition unelectable"

To a degree thats wha we have now So back then perhaps/quite likely.

It'd be worse due to tensions over the ETS, which Turnbull let pass TTL. Besides, haven't the Liberals led the polls since Turnbull became leader last year. Now, Turnbull has a poll lead and the alternative has been shown to be unsuccessful, but TTL Rudd will have the advantage and the tensions will be higher. I don't see it going well for the Coalition.
 

Pangur

Donor
It'd be worse due to tensions over the ETS, which Turnbull let pass TTL. Besides, haven't the Liberals led the polls since Turnbull became leader last year. Now, Turnbull has a poll lead and the alternative has been shown to be unsuccessful, but TTL Rudd will have the advantage and the tensions will be higher. I don't see it going well for the Coalition.

Two things to consider, Labor getting a second term and then the 2013 election. Labor did get a second term and Turnbull as leader would not change hat. 2013 is whats worth thinking about.

BTW, Turnbull being high in the polls right now has not stopped the right wingers having the knives out for him
 
Rudd will win 2 more elections (assuming they don't despose him as in OTL) and the Coalition will win in 2016 with a new leader possibly Morrison or Bishop. Labor would win with an increased majority in early 2010 and a reduced majority in 2013.

The ETS would've be easily passed with Labor in control of both the HoR and the Senate.
 

Pangur

Donor
Rudd will win 2 more elections (assuming they don't despose him as in OTL) and the Coalition will win in 2016 with a new leader possibly Morrison or Bishop. Labor would win with an increased majority in early 2010 and a reduced majority in 2013.

The ETS would've be easily passed with Labor in control of both the HoR and the Senate.

Morrison or Bishop? Bishop is dubious as her past re Asbestos will hurt her. Morrison is another matter, if he came to the front in opposition then perhaps
 
It depends on Rudd's successor too, I'd think Bishop would get more traction if Gillard was still around.
 
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