WI: Malaya, Borneo, Singapore and Sarawak have referendums to join Indonesia?

[Ismailov]

Basically, pre-confrontation (and pre-federation to form Malaysia, of course), would these states voluntarily vote to join Indonesia? What would be the effects if so?

It's 'cause I'm doing a 1960s Cold War forum game with some AH users playing, and the issue came up: http://z13.invisionfree.com/eRegime/index.php?act=idx

 

[Al-numbers]

You would have to butterfly the Kesatuan Melayu Muda seeking help from the Japanese and have the East Indies sultans keep their thrones after the Japanese occupation to get Malaya on board with the referendums. You would also have to do something to the Malayan Indians and the Chinese minority so that their Congress and Association will be on board with it too.

 

[mlp]

Indonesia becomes a major power in Southeast Asia. There will be less hindrances for it to gain nuclear weapons from China in the 1960s. We might expect a stronger China-Indonesia relationship, if Sukarno was not forcibly ousted.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Singapore will vote no.

 

[Simon]

Indonesia becomes a major power in Southeast Asia. There will be less hindrances for it to gain nuclear weapons from China in the 1960s. We might expect a stronger China-Indonesia relationship, if Sukarno was not forcibly ousted.

Could you expand on that a little as those are rather broad statements. I mean why does Indonesia automatically become a major power simply thanks to the addition of what would become Malaysia, Singapore and Borneo? Singapore worked because of it's location-specific advantage and Lee effectively playing Sim City with the place, would the same be achievable with such a sprawling and diverse country as Indonesia? Malaysia is a slightly better fit since Malays only make up something like just over half the population but they've ruthlessly taken advantage of some rather discriminatory laws and IIRC had a higher developmental starting point. Brunei brings oil but spread over the much larger Indonesian population as opposed to the much smaller one isn't such a boost. Indonesia could just as easily drag these states down as they drag it up. And nuclear weapons? Sure China shared nuclear and missile technology with Pakistan but that was to help counterbalance India. What pressing need or advantage would they have for giving Indonesia nuclear weapons as well?

 

[Ismailov]

You would have to butterfly the Kesatuan Melayu Muda seeking help from the Japanese and have the East Indies sultans keep their thrones after the Japanese occupation to get Malaya on board with the referendums. You would also have to do something to the Malayan Indians and the Chinese minority so that their Congress and Association will be on board with it too.

As an aside, would there be significant rebellions in places like Borneo and Sarawak in the event of a forced integration of these places into Malaysia? I'm not quite sure what political consciousness was like in those places. (Malaya obviously is different)

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Indonesia with additional territories of Malaysia and Singapore will be a more important regional, for sure. As for standard of living though, no way on the level of Singapore. But Indonesia has all the requirements to achieve Brazilian level of success, and annexing both Singapore and Malaysia will grant it more comfortable position to get there. Perhaps, Indonesia that doesn't get bled by revolutionary war against Netherlands can pose a more appealing nation to join into. It was preventable, if rather tricky. The key is to prevent the radical Pemuda faction from forcing their way and in turn, improve the position of Dutch liberals on the issue. Both Indonesian older intelligentsia and Dutch moderates were perfectly willing to form a compromise. With Indonesia that is regarded as firmly pro-west from the start, it will get a lot more freedom of movement and support from the west to become an imposing regional power.

 

[Flocculencio]

Indonesia with additional territories of Malaysia and Singapore will be a more important regional, for sure. As for standard of living though, no way on the level of Singapore. But Indonesia has all the requirements to achieve Brazilian level of success, and annexing both Singapore and Malaysia will grant it more comfortable position to get there. Perhaps, Indonesia that doesn't get bled by revolutionary war against Netherlands can pose a more appealing nation to join into. It was preventable, if rather tricky. The key is to prevent the radical Pemuda faction from forcing their way and in turn, improve the position of Dutch liberals on the issue. Both Indonesian older intelligentsia and Dutch moderates were perfectly willing to form a compromise. With Indonesia that is regarded as firmly pro-west from the start, it will get a lot more freedom of movement and support from the west to become an imposing regional power.

You're also going to have to find some way to deal with the Malay supremacists in Malaysia and their likely attitude towards becoming an ethnic minority in a Javanese dominated federation.

Also I suspect a lot of Indonesians aren't going to be that happy about integrating a whole bunch of Chinese.

 

[Al-numbers]

As an aside, would there be significant rebellions in places like Borneo and Sarawak in the event of a forced integration of these places into Malaysia? I'm not quite sure what political consciousness was like in those places. (Malaya obviously is different)

For Sarawak, you would have to butterfly or repress the Nationalist Sarawakians who have become somewhat infamous for carrying out assassinations. For Sabah, it's a bit of a wildcard - The Philippines would probably claim Eastern Sabah like they did in the 60's and 70's, but I have no clue as to local reaction towards British rule there.

Brunei would probably want out, though. It was declared a British protectorate in 1888 because there was fear of the polity going full-out extinct. It would later refuse federation with Malaysia due to disputes in oil and monarchy (Malaysia had an elected constitutional one, while Brunei wanted a monarchy with more power).

 

[Ismailov]

I actually meant "into Indonesia," not Malaysia.

 

[Al-numbers]

I actually meant "into Indonesia," not Malaysia.

I know, but I caught your gist regardless of the error.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

You're also going to have to find some way to deal with the Malay supremacists in Malaysia and their likely attitude towards becoming an ethnic minority in a Javanese dominated federation.

Also I suspect a lot of Indonesians aren't going to be that happy about integrating a whole bunch of Chinese.

It's reasonable to think that a pro-west Indonesia that emerges from compromise with Netherlands will be involved in dealing with Malay Emergency. That can score points with the Malay nationalist and enmity from the Chinese, but I'm not sure if many Indonesians will notice that annexing Malaya will be incorporating Malayan Chinese into the country. The whole Pan-Malay enthusiasm can easily cloud their view. That can mean problem all right. Besides, more likely result from this will be a collection of clients out of former British colonies, but depends on how Indonesia will develop, I won't count annexation out.

 

[iori]

Also I suspect a lot of Indonesians aren't going to be that happy about integrating a whole bunch of Chinese.

I don't think that'd be an issue given Indonesia IOTL has a Chinese population of almost 3 million.

 

[Sharunaku]

I don't think that'd be an issue given Indonesia IOTL has a Chinese population of almost 3 million.

And are targeted by rioters from time to time. I doubt more Chinese is going to help on that matter, and how did Singapore became independent? It was expelled from Malaysia, so I doubt the Malaysians would want to be in the same country with them .