WI major Teutonic victory on Tannenberg

What if the teutonic order had won a decisive victory on tannenberg? First the details

In OTL the polish exausted the teutons for days by making them follow the polish under the sun, so in this scenario the teutonic order do not fall for this trick and attack the polish with their troops fresh, the result is over 70% of the polish army destroyed and the death of the polish king, what happens next?
 

PhilippeO

Banned
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Teutonic_War

After Tannenberg, Polish-Teutonic still go to war frequently until 1520s. So nothing much changed.

Polish will be weakened after defeat, Prussia will be a bit larger, but Polish and Lithuanian will continue to fight Teutonic Knight.

a defeat could either weakened Polish-Lithuania alliance or strengthen royal authority and Polish-Lithuanian relation, it could go either way, but both people will continue to make war to Teutonic Knight.
 

Don Quijote

Banned
It's bound to have some effect, given the scale of the defeat the Teutonic Knights suffered IOTL. If it had been a country, it could have coped, but for a crusading order such casualties were devastating. Of course they held out at the fortress city of Konigsberg, but if they had instead gone onto the offensive, Poland-Lithuania is in trouble. Brave they may have been in battle, but many of the Lithuanians will probably drift away as soon as they can, being much less disciplined than the Order was. Assuming the Order has taken reasonable losses, it won't want to push on recklessly to try and crush Poland completely, but they may cut down a lot of weary infantry in the pursuit.

I'm not sure about longer term effects, but the Teutonic Order will certainly last longer than it actually did. Tannenberg destroyed its aura of invincibility, but a victory would enhance this.
 
It's bound to have some effect, given the scale of the defeat the Teutonic Knights suffered IOTL. If it had been a country, it could have coped, but for a crusading order such casualties were devastating. Of course they held out at the fortress city of Konigsberg, but if they had instead gone onto the offensive, Poland-Lithuania is in trouble. Brave they may have been in battle, but many of the Lithuanians will probably drift away as soon as they can, being much less disciplined than the Order was. Assuming the Order has taken reasonable losses, it won't want to push on recklessly to try and crush Poland completely, but they may cut down a lot of weary infantry in the pursuit.

I'm not sure about longer term effects, but the Teutonic Order will certainly last longer than it actually did. Tannenberg destroyed its aura of invincibility, but a victory would enhance this.


Could this make the teutonic order be the leading german state instead of austria or prussia?
 
Could this make the teutonic order be the leading german state instead of austria or prussia?

If anything, "Prussia" would still be founded in a way, only fanatically Catholic and with no delusions of being anything other than an army with a state.

It would be interesting to see the evolution of a surviving crusader state into the Renaissance. Teutonic relations with Poland, Lithuania, and Novgorod will almost certainly continue to be terrible. Expect even more tension and on-and-off wars than OTL, as the order will continue to seek to expand its influence, politically and militarily, at the expense of the Slavs and Balts.

As for what role the order will play in German politics? It will most likely continue to receive patronage from the Holy Roman Emperor and other well-off nobles, even from non-German christian states, as it did OTL. The biggest wildcard is the Papacy, which in OTL attempted to seize all Order assets for "misconduct" (read: ethnic cleansing) against the devoutly christian Kingdom of Poland in 1309. If the Papacy is able to convince the HRE to cut ties with the crusader state once it becomes too powerful, the order will be diplomatically isolated, especially once crusader crimes against the christian Slavs and Balts become more well-known following Tannenburg.

Yet at the same time, even with the lack of foreign support, a victory at Tannenburg would increase the strength of the order exponentially, to the point that it may very well stand on its own just as easily as it would with Imperial support. Even with Papal objection to the more seedy doings of the order, the christian foes it would potentially face are already fighting it anyways, as the HRE would not seek to destroy a useful buffer state.

But would the order seek to influence "secular" politics in the neighboring Empire? I would think so, as the statelets of the HRE are its primary source of manpower for the short term. It will never seek to directly challenge the power of the Emperor, and will be ineligible to join as a proper member as it technically isn't a monarchy. But its influence on the German states will be undeniable, potentially influencing how the Protestant reformation plays out, if at all. Perhaps they end up as a sort of proto-Landsknecht loyal only to the Emperor and "true" Christendom, acting as the sword and shield of the HRE (and potentially serving as the linchpin for a true imperial army down the line). Meanwhile, only Emperors in the pocket of the order will be elected through the mobilization of vast sums of funds and influence, serving to act as its mouthpiece-by-proxy.
 
If anything, "Prussia" would still be founded in a way, only fanatically Catholic and with no delusions of being anything other than an army with a state.

It would be interesting to see the evolution of a surviving crusader state into the Renaissance. Teutonic relations with Poland, Lithuania, and Novgorod will almost certainly continue to be terrible. Expect even more tension and on-and-off wars than OTL, as the order will continue to seek to expand its influence, politically and militarily, at the expense of the Slavs and Balts.

As for what role the order will play in German politics? It will most likely continue to receive patronage from the Holy Roman Emperor and other well-off nobles, even from non-German christian states, as it did OTL. The biggest wildcard is the Papacy, which in OTL attempted to seize all Order assets for "misconduct" (read: ethnic cleansing) against the devoutly christian Kingdom of Poland in 1309. If the Papacy is able to convince the HRE to cut ties with the crusader state once it becomes too powerful, the order will be diplomatically isolated, especially once crusader crimes against the christian Slavs and Balts become more well-known following Tannenburg.

Yet at the same time, even with the lack of foreign support, a victory at Tannenburg would increase the strength of the order exponentially, to the point that it may very well stand on its own just as easily as it would with Imperial support. Even with Papal objection to the more seedy doings of the order, the christian foes it would potentially face are already fighting it anyways, as the HRE would not seek to destroy a useful buffer state.

But would the order seek to influence "secular" politics in the neighboring Empire? I would think so, as the statelets of the HRE are its primary source of manpower for the short term. It will never seek to directly challenge the power of the Emperor, and will be ineligible to join as a proper member as it technically isn't a monarchy. But its influence on the German states will be undeniable, potentially influencing how the Protestant reformation plays out, if at all. Perhaps they end up as a sort of proto-Landsknecht loyal only to the Emperor and "true" Christendom, acting as the sword and shield of the HRE (and potentially serving as the linchpin for a true imperial army down the line). Meanwhile, only Emperors in the pocket of the order will be elected through the mobilization of vast sums of funds and influence, serving to act as its mouthpiece-by-proxy.


Could this also lead to some proto-generalplan ost being played out? The oder could continue fighting against the "slav infidels" and slowy conquer poland, lithuania and belarus
 
Could this also lead to some proto-generalplan ost being played out? The oder could continue fighting against the "slav infidels" and slowy conquer poland, lithuania and belarus

It already was being played out. Gerneralplan Ost can in many ways be traced back to the eastwards expansion of the Teutonic Order, if not even further back to Otto I and the Wendish Conquests, along with all of the chauvinistic rhetoric used during the land seizures. So in the case of a more powerful order, expect eastern expansion to continue, unless the Polish-Lithuanian Union is able to further consolidate and drive the crusaders back (which wouldn't be too difficult, should they play it safe).
 
I have a question:was the land the Teutonic Knights occupying ever considered formally part of the HRE?I remember reading nobles from the HRE being furious and condemned the first duke of Prussia as a traitor to the HRE for secularising and submitting to PLC.
 
I have a question:was the land the Teutonic Knights occupying ever considered formally part of the HRE?I remember reading nobles from the HRE being furious and condemned the first duke of Prussia as a traitor to the HRE for secularizing and submitting to PLC.

No, it was never a de-jure formal member of the HRE, as the Hochmeister was considered a "Prince of the Church" who answered only to the Pope. Yet in reality, the order was a de-facto part of the Empire, due to the fact that the Hochmeister and Generalkapitel often paid homage to the Kaiser in return for continued imperial patronage.

However, the "treason" of the order had to do with Albert's conversion to Lutheran Protestantism with the establishment of Ducal Prussia. As the primary beneficiaries of the order were German Catholic nobles, the move represented a major loss of manpower and gold, not to mention the added religious heresy. So it's pretty easy to see why many in the HRE considered duchy to be traitors.
 
It already was being played out. Gerneralplan Ost can in many ways be traced back to the eastwards expansion of the Teutonic Order, if not even further back to Otto I and the Wendish Conquests, along with all of the chauvinistic rhetoric used during the land seizures. So in the case of a more powerful order, expect eastern expansion to continue, unless the Polish-Lithuanian Union is able to further consolidate and drive the crusaders back (which wouldn't be too difficult, should they play it safe).

So in a best case scenario (not turning this into a wank), how (realistic) big could the teutonic order get
 
So in a best case scenario (not turning this into a wank), how (realistic) big could the teutonic order get

Best case scenario? The order eats a decent chunk of Greater Poland (Poznań, Kalisz, etc.) and finishes conquering Lithuanian Samogitia, while both sides frantically attempt to boost manpower reserves for the next bout. The Polish-Lithanian Union will consolidate even faster than OTL, most likely acting in a manner very much like the Commonwealth of the 16th century, if not outright becoming it both in name and in reality. Expect a renewed offensive to retake lost land within the decade.

Meanwhile, the Baltic is turned into a Teutonic lake, even more than it was in OTL. The order already came into conflict with the Hanseatic League over trade rights, and did quite well for itself due to the enthusiastic support it received from English and Dutch nobles and merchants, who were interested in dismantling the League's monopoly of Baltic/North Sea trade. Expect the League to be feeling very hot under the collar following a Teutonic resurgence.

As for Germany, it would depend on how the Protestant Reformation goes. If it occurs as it did OTL, expect the order to take a zero-tolerance policy towards heretics, with the Emperor authorizing the order to wage war against Protestant nobles and commoners alike. The order will almost certainly expand into Germany proper if this occurs, as the prospect of even more land, and more sources of reliable manpower, are too good to pass up. How far they expand depends on how much they respect the HRE and its authority, as every state they "pacify" will further sap the power of the empire down the line.

In the end, it will probably end up looking very much like 19th century Prussia, only even more jingoistic and authoritarian. Then again, it could also get crippled in a future war against Poland-Lithuania, and turned into a vassal state as it did in OTL. The demographics are certainly on the Commonwealth's side.
 

ben0628

Banned
If the Order can survive up to the 17th century, Do the Catholics win the Thirty Year's War? Would Sweden and or Denmark even consider intervening in German politics at that point? Could the order go on to conquer Gotland, Bornholm, and other parts of the two Scandinavian nations?
 
If the Order can survive up to the 17th century, Do the Catholics win the Thirty Year's War? Would Sweden and or Denmark even consider intervening in German politics at that point? Could the order go on to conquer Gotland, Bornholm, and other parts of the two Scandinavian nations?


I believe that if the order sent it's troops to fight in the thirty years war it would be the perfect chance to poland strike in their territory, the order needs every man possible to keep their borders secure
 
Why are you assuming the Order stays Catholic? After all, plenty of ecclesiastical property became Protestant.
 
There's only big problem with wanking the Teutons into either getting a Baltic lake or going into Lithuania and Belarus. Weakening Poland and Lithuania greatly aids Muscovy a hell of lot more then it does help the Teutonic Order.

First and foremost whats to stop an ambitous Grand Prince of Muscovy from expanding and reclaiming the old Kievan Rus from a weakened Lithuania. You did have Lithuania magnates defect to Muscovy/Russia, and considering Muscovy is the now preeminent power in the region. Also the Tatars at this time aren't anything special and not a threat to Muscovy, hell the Khanate of Kazan was actually propped by Muscovite support.

Second you've screwed over Novgorod in the process. Novgorod political factions where divided into a pro-Muscovite and pro-Lithuanian factions. Torpedo Lithuania or at least severely weaken it, and there's not it can really do but fall under Muscovite influence.
 
There's only big problem with wanking the Teutons into either getting a Baltic lake or going into Lithuania and Belarus. Weakening Poland and Lithuania greatly aids Muscovy a hell of lot more then it does help the Teutonic Order.

First and foremost whats to stop an ambitous Grand Prince of Muscovy from expanding and reclaiming the old Kievan Rus from a weakened Lithuania. You did have Lithuania magnates defect to Muscovy/Russia, and considering Muscovy is the now preeminent power in the region. Also the Tatars at this time aren't anything special and not a threat to Muscovy, hell the Khanate of Kazan was actually propped by Muscovite support.

Second you've screwed over Novgorod in the process. Novgorod political factions where divided into a pro-Muscovite and pro-Lithuanian factions. Torpedo Lithuania or at least severely weaken it, and there's not it can really do but fall under Muscovite influence.


Well, the teutons could profit with that, they could wait until the polish russian war of 1654 and stab the poles in the back and get a huge amount of land in the treaty of andrusovo
 
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