WI Magister Militum Avitus makes a quick alliance with the Visigoths in 455 AD?

After his ascencion on 17 March 455 Petronius Maximus quickly appointed Avitus as Magister Militum, and sent him on a mission to Tolosa to gain the support of the Visigoths however, by the time Avitus arrived, Maximus was dead, and the mission pointless. Petronius Maxinus was overthrown on 31 May 455 during the riots that followed the Vandal invasion under Geiseric...
WI Avitus was quick enough reaching Tolosa and struck a deal with the Visigoths? Would Geiseric still sacked Rome knowing that a Visigothic army could attack his flank? How is that altering History? Any thoughts?
 
After his ascencion on 17 March 455 Petronius Maximus quickly appointed Avitus as Magister Militum, and sent him on a mission to Tolosa to gain the support of the Visigoths however, by the time Avitus arrived, Maximus was dead, and the mission pointless. Petronius Maxinus was overthrown on 31 May 455 during the riots that followed the Vandal invasion under Geiseric...
WI Avitus was quick enough reaching Tolosa and struck a deal with the Visigoths? Would Geiseric still sacked Rome knowing that a Visigothic army could attack his flank? How is that altering History? Any thoughts?

Consider Avitus' own Imperial ambitions. With the Visigothic army behind him, he could have used the Vandals to remove Petronius, and appear as a "savior" with his Visigoths. In other words, not much difference from OTL, where he ended up one of the short-lived Emperors as it was. I think he would have allowed the Vandals to do what they did in OTL, for reasons entirely pragmatic and cynical, even if he did find out in time. It is entirely possible that the communication speed is slow enough to where it would not impact the events in the immediate term, and in the long run, it would probably simply result in a few different "men behind the throne", replacing various Rugii and Herulii with the Visigoths.
 
Consider Avitus' own Imperial ambitions. With the Visigothic army behind him, he could have used the Vandals to remove Petronius, and appear as a "savior" with his Visigoths. In other words, not much difference from OTL, where he ended up one of the short-lived Emperors as it was. I think he would have allowed the Vandals to do what they did in OTL, for reasons entirely pragmatic and cynical, even if he did find out in time. It is entirely possible that the communication speed is slow enough to where it would not impact the events in the immediate term, and in the long run, it would probably simply result in a few different "men behind the throne", replacing various Rugii and Herulii with the Visigoths.

The replacement with of "men behind the throne" with Visigoths might be significant. The Visigoths controlled much of Spain and Aquitaine in France, so if their control of the Emperor is also part of this equation, then you've reunited Spain, Italy, and Southern France under the Imperial umbrella. With the strength that the Visigoths bring to the table, they could have a pretty secure grip on the Western Empire (such as it is), and prop up their Imperial puppets for some time.

By using the authority of the Western Empire, they could create themselves as the central power in the West. If the Visigoths follow this path, then they are investing themselves in the position of the Emperor, and thus the "Western Empire" won't end with the regalia being sent east by Odoacer.

On another note:
If the Visigoths are the power behind the throne in the West, then something needs to be done with Ostrogoths. iOTL Theodoric invaded Italy in 488, at the behest of the Eastern Roman Emperor, in order to overthrow Odoacer's rule. With the Visigoths in control, this event, and the events that led to it, will be butterflied.

A different, and very interesting option, for the Ostrogoths is North Africa. Geiseric died in 477, and with his death the Vandals immediately went into decline. The Vandals are not friendly with anyone really, the East Romans hate them, the Visigoths don't like them much, and so having Theodoric lead his people into North Africa could be a very cool option.

The plan, as I see it, would involve a joint Visigoth-East Roman expedition. The East Roman would only need to pledge ships, as the troops will be provided by the Ostrogoths. The Vandals were able to fight off an earlier invasion, but that was under Geiseric. This invasion will be successful, and put the Ostrogoths in control of North Africa.
 
If the Visigoths become the power in Italy, how will the people react to having Arian overlords? In OTL, Ostrogothic king Theodoric tried to alleviate the problem by allowing the unprecedented concept of 'freedom of religion.' Would the Visigoths do the same thing? How would the East Romans view a barbarian and heretical nation not just ruling Italy as the Ostrogoths did, but also a large chunk of Gaul and Hispania?
 
The replacement with of "men behind the throne" with Visigoths might be significant. The Visigoths controlled much of Spain and Aquitaine in France, so if their control of the Emperor is also part of this equation, then you've reunited Spain, Italy, and Southern France under the Imperial umbrella. With the strength that the Visigoths bring to the table, they could have a pretty secure grip on the Western Empire (such as it is), and prop up their Imperial puppets for some time.

By using the authority of the Western Empire, they could create themselves as the central power in the West. If the Visigoths follow this path, then they are investing themselves in the position of the Emperor, and thus the "Western Empire" won't end with the regalia being sent east by Odoacer.

On another note:
If the Visigoths are the power behind the throne in the West, then something needs to be done with Ostrogoths. iOTL Theodoric invaded Italy in 488, at the behest of the Eastern Roman Emperor, in order to overthrow Odoacer's rule. With the Visigoths in control, this event, and the events that led to it, will be butterflied.

A different, and very interesting option, for the Ostrogoths is North Africa. Geiseric died in 477, and with his death the Vandals immediately went into decline. The Vandals are not friendly with anyone really, the East Romans hate them, the Visigoths don't like them much, and so having Theodoric lead his people into North Africa could be a very cool option.

The plan, as I see it, would involve a joint Visigoth-East Roman expedition. The East Roman would only need to pledge ships, as the troops will be provided by the Ostrogoths. The Vandals were able to fight off an earlier invasion, but that was under Geiseric. This invasion will be successful, and put the Ostrogoths in control of North Africa.


Great points - we could have Visigoths in Italy instead of Spain, basically doing what OTL Theodoric has done, but with the puppet office of the Emperor intact. However, I would caution against claiming automatic success against the Vandals. In at least two instances, major expeditions were sent against the Vandals, both of which should have crushed them, but did not. First time, Majorian was set back by Ricimer's meddling and outright sabotage, second time, Basiliscus made some of the most idiotic mistakes ever made by a Roman naval commander. So, in order for such an invasion to succeed, it needs to have someone competent in charge (might be too early for Theodoric, but perhaps someone of similar calibre - hell, anyone who is not Basiliscus), and there needs to be no sabotage. In OTL, the first invasion fell to the latter, and the second invasion fell to the former - ironically, Belisarius was able to conquer the Vandals with a MUCH smaller force less than a century later, when competent command was in place, and there was no sabotage involved...
 
If the Visigoths become the power in Italy, how will the people react to having Arian overlords? In OTL, Ostrogothic king Theodoric tried to alleviate the problem by allowing the unprecedented concept of 'freedom of religion.' Would the Visigoths do the same thing? How would the East Romans view a barbarian and heretical nation not just ruling Italy as the Ostrogoths did, but also a large chunk of Gaul and Hispania?

I think the Romans will view it pragmatically. If the Western Empire cannot handle itself, better to have it under the Visigoth rule than have it fall apart... and I doubt the Visigoths are going to be as unreasonable as, say, the Vandals. They know their position largely depends on their relationship with the Romans, and it is cheaper and easier for them to let the Romans do as they please, and the Visigoths as they please in religious matters.

And do not forget, technically this would be still a Roman-ruled territory, if only in name... the bureacracy would also likely to be Roman, so we may eventually see a creation of new warrior-class within the Empire, largely Visigoth, but after a few generations possibly merging with the Roman military elite (which is likely to at some point rise again in prominence). Of course, it would take at least a century or two before it gets even close to this - had Theodoric's realm of OTL lasted another hundred years, it would have been neither purely Roman nor purely Ostrogothic. Here, the Visigoths might get a chance their cousins did not.
 
If the Visigoths become the power in Italy, how will the people react to having Arian overlords? In OTL, Ostrogothic king Theodoric tried to alleviate the problem by allowing the unprecedented concept of 'freedom of religion.' Would the Visigoths do the same thing? How would the East Romans view a barbarian and heretical nation not just ruling Italy as the Ostrogoths did, but also a large chunk of Gaul and Hispania?

The Visigoths ruled a mostly Orthodox christian Spain with a minimum of friction. The Visigoths already running a parallel legal and religious system, and there weren't very many of them. With control of the Imperial throne, I think the Visigoths will be secure in their total control of the Army (the Army will be an all-German affair), and allow the Romans to run the bueracracy (as OTL with Theodoric). By keeping the Romans disarmed, the Germans know that they will be able to maintain nearly indefinite control, as long as there is no outside interference (like Justinian's invasion).

Great points - we could have Visigoths in Italy instead of Spain, basically doing what OTL Theodoric has done, but with the puppet office of the Emperor intact. However, I would caution against claiming automatic success against the Vandals. In at least two instances, major expeditions were sent against the Vandals, both of which should have crushed them, but did not. First time, Majorian was set back by Ricimer's meddling and outright sabotage, second time, Basiliscus made some of the most idiotic mistakes ever made by a Roman naval commander. So, in order for such an invasion to succeed, it needs to have someone competent in charge (might be too early for Theodoric, but perhaps someone of similar calibre - hell, anyone who is not Basiliscus), and there needs to be no sabotage. In OTL, the first invasion fell to the latter, and the second invasion fell to the former - ironically, Belisarius was able to conquer the Vandals with a MUCH smaller force less than a century later, when competent command was in place, and there was no sabotage involved...

Theodoric led the invasion of Italy in 488, so I think that he is the logical leader of this expedition. He was educated by the Romans while he was a hostage to his father's good behavior, and Zeno spent a lot of money to get him and his tribe out of the Eastern Empire. It would make sense in this TL that Zeno was just as motivated to get the Ostrogoths out of the Eastern Empire. With Geiseric dead I think there would be much more confidence in the chances of the expedition's success, so an Ostrogoth-led and manned expedition would probably have the approval of Zeno.

I think the Romans will view it pragmatically. If the Western Empire cannot handle itself, better to have it under the Visigoth rule than have it fall apart... and I doubt the Visigoths are going to be as unreasonable as, say, the Vandals. They know their position largely depends on their relationship with the Romans, and it is cheaper and easier for them to let the Romans do as they please, and the Visigoths as they please in religious matters.

And do not forget, technically this would be still a Roman-ruled territory, if only in name... the bureacracy would also likely to be Roman, so we may eventually see a creation of new warrior-class within the Empire, largely Visigoth, but after a few generations possibly merging with the Roman military elite (which is likely to at some point rise again in prominence). Of course, it would take at least a century or two before it gets even close to this - had Theodoric's realm of OTL lasted another hundred years, it would have been neither purely Roman nor purely Ostrogothic. Here, the Visigoths might get a chance their cousins did not.

The military was reserved for the Germans. That was their leverage in the West. Basically, the civilian (Roman, Orthodox Christian) populace, could resent German rule, but they couldn't do anything to end it. The only places where the Germans were thrown off is where Justinian's invasion brought western territory under Eastern occupation.

Basically, the argument could be made that feudalism was the evolution of what been a Roman society with Roman rules turn into a German society, following German rules. The German domination of the military sector turned into domination of society as the Roman buercracy fell apart. German tribal rules that overtook Roman rules.

Anyway, if the office of the Western Emperor is maintained, then the Roman bueracracy that supports that office continues to have a reason to exist. Roman culture continues to hold its allure. The unification of elites would be the Roman government elite merging into the German military elite. The Roman families probably have more prestige, so Germans marrying into them probably occurs. A theological settlement between the Arians and Orthodox would also really help out relations between the two, and open the possibility that the Germans would be able to directly inherit the Imperial throne.
 
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