WI: Madiun Affair succed

In OTL, there's a communist rebellion in Madiun, East Java in 18 September 1948, following the resignation of the left-wing second Syarifuddin cabinet, after mass resignation of Masyumi (Islamist) and PNI (nationalist) minister as a protest to the signing of Renville Agreement. This rebellion is headed by Musso (senior communist, Indonesian delegate to Moscow in 1927 revolt. Also described by Wiki as Stalinist) and Amir Syarifuddin (Communist former PM), and was quickly crushed by Gen. Nasution with his Siliwangi Division. Musso and Syariffudin ended up dead

What if the whole affair end with Jogjakartan radio singing Internasionale? Say Nasution was succesfully influenced by Syarifuddin during his time in West Java (he, at one point, regarded former PETA with contempt and drifting into Syarifuddin). Or say Sultan Hamengkubuwono fell ill during that time, and can't influence Javanese to defy the revolution

Does if it succed USSR are willing to aid them? (Musso spent WWII in Moscow after all). Or it moves the Operation Kraai timetable forward? `(OTL it's in December 1948). If Operation Kraai moves forward can the USSR aid Indonesian diplomatically and/or militarily?
 
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If Indonesia goes full communist this early, expect the whole Fortress Australia mentality and thinking to kick in much more seriously than it did OTL and this means we would definately get nukes and the means to deliver them, meaning RAAF V Bombers and maybe even Blue Streak gets continued.
 
That is, if Indonesian Soviet Republic even survive the Dutch onslaught

Speaking of which, if Dutch get back DEI, what effect can it cause to Australia?
 

Cook

Banned
A successful PKI and PSI takeover of Java in 1948 would see British and Australian military aid going being supplied to Sukarno's Nationalists in Sumatra and civil war would ensue. As with the Spanish Civil War, the alliance between the PKI and PSI would probably have been temporary and would have dissolved into fratricidal fighting; a civil war within a civil war, just as happened in Barcelona. The question then arises whether the British would be willing to prevent Soviet arms shipments from reaching ports in Java.
 
A successful PKI and PSI takeover of Java in 1948 would see British and Australian military aid going being supplied to Sukarno's Nationalists in Sumatra and civil war would ensue. As with the Spanish Civil War, the alliance between the PKI and PSI would probably have been temporary and would have dissolved into fratricidal fighting; a civil war within a civil war, just as happened in Barcelona. The question then arises whether the British would be willing to prevent Soviet arms shipments from reaching ports in Java.
And the Dutch? Van Mook line is still a thing, hence I think much sooner Operation Kraai. If Nationalist are being aided by the Dutch, it's major propaganda blow
EDIT: Also, it's PS. PSI is PS split that join the government after Sjarifuddin's resignation
 
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And how about Dutch's? If they get back DEI, or if Indon goes full socialist?

I think if Indonesia go fullcommunism at this point, the Americans will back the Dutch politically and militarily and Dutch wil retake DEI. IOTL U.S. threatened to stop marshall aid to the Netherlands if they doesn't stop their military action.

But the Dutch can't hold for much longer, though. ( I even read somewhere that the Queen promised to grant DEI independence if they could retake the colony.) So, I think they will install friendlier government and grant Indonesia independence somewhere in the 50's or early 60's, like Malaya.
 
I think if Indonesia go fullcommunism at this point, the Americans will back the Dutch politically and militarily and Dutch wil retake DEI. IOTL U.S. threatened to stop marshall aid to the Netherlands if they doesn't stop their military action.

But the Dutch can't hold for much longer, though. ( I even read somewhere that the Queen promised to grant DEI independence if they could retake the colony.) So, I think they will install friendlier government and grant Indonesia independence somewhere in the 50's or early 60's, like Malaya.
Honestly I'm inclined toward that too. Now just how much butterfly that will unleash? On communism struggle elsewhere? On decolonialization? On Soviet doctrine regarding 3rd world? Etc
 
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