WI: Madagascar remains unpopulated until French arrive in

I think this is partly incorrect in the bit about "not spreading Islam". Evidence from early Arabic loanwords into Malgasy implies a early (turn of the millennium or a little later) diffusion of Islam in parts of Madagascar IIRC. It is true, however, that the lack of population would have made the place less attractive to Islamic traders.
However, Madagascar is a big "empty" land. Commercial outposts would highlight the simple fact that "free land available here" so they are likely to develop into a larger scale settlement simply because they have room to do so. Not a guaranteed outcome, but chances are that somebody needing a place to settle will go there (they also need to have an adequate crop package, that is viable but not guaranteed if the first comers are, say, Yemenis).

This is another controversial point.

Historically, it has been assumed that Madagascar has been sparsely populated, but this point would not match with the large-scale impact driven by pre-European population in the whole island.
It has been suspected by several anthropologists that pre-European population in Madagascar was larger than traditionally assumed, and with more diverse ancestry. This led to large-scale transformations on every ecosystem in the island, no matter its remoteness, and the infamous erradication of the native megafauna.
It's possible, but I don't know if it has been somehow proved to this date, even if widely especulated, that Arabs, Persians or early European explorers could have brought some diseases to the island that would cause a serious drop in the population, something in fact easy to figure as most of pre-European Malagasy remained isolated for a long time.

And regarding Islam, I'm sure it was somehaw present when Arabs established some outposts, but it's clear that they did not put much effort in spreading it there, unlike they did in other places (probably they found it unworthy).
 
It's probably easier to keep New Zealand uninhabited than it is to keep Madagascar uninhabited, and even that is challenging.
 
This is another controversial point.

Historically, it has been assumed that Madagascar has been sparsely populated, but this point would not match with the large-scale impact driven by pre-European population in the whole island.

Sorry, I was referring to "empty" when the "Arabs" arrived there in (I think) the ninth or tenth century, not at the time of European arrival.
I didn't know of the population debate (interesting) but I was vaguely aware of some speculation (unproven AFAIK) about a pre-Austronesian population there, thence my commas on "empty".

About Islam, the place was pretty darn far away and marginal (both geographically and economically) from an Islamic perspective. Of course there wasn't quite a concerted effort to convert the locals; what would be the point. Indonesia, for a relevant example of an area that underwent thorough Islamization mainly through trade contact, was comparably far, but easier to reach and located along a (very important) trade route, not the endpoint (of a less important one).
 
Sorry, I was referring to "empty" when the "Arabs" arrived there in (I think) the ninth or tenth century, not at the time of European arrival.
I didn't know of the population debate (interesting) but I was vaguely aware of some speculation (unproven AFAIK) about a pre-Austronesian population there, thence my commas on "empty".

About Islam, the place was pretty darn far away and marginal (both geographically and economically) from an Islamic perspective. Of course there wasn't quite a concerted effort to convert the locals; what would be the point. Indonesia, for a relevant example of an area that underwent thorough Islamization mainly through trade contact, was comparably far, but easier to reach and located along a (very important) trade route, not the endpoint (of a less important one).

Probably, when Arabs arrived, Madagascar held a larger population than later, when French arrived. It has been largely especulated that the island experienced a demographic boom by the end of the first millennium AC, just when native megafauna collapsed, affecting the ecosystems.
The fact of this environmental meltdown combined with the arrival of Arabs (that maybe brought some diseases unknown to native Malagasy) hit down the population rate.
This also happened in New Zealand when moas disappeared, as the population of Maori relied a lot on them at that moment, so their population also crashed for a time until they readjusted their customs to the new situation.
 
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