WI: Mackenzie's Republic of Canada succeeds?

Redcoat

Banned
I recently found out that the grandfather of one of Canada's most famous PM's was actually a Republican who wanted to free Canada from the British Empire. Eventually, they holed out on an island near Niagara Falls for nearly a year before being defeated. What if they succeeded in declaring a republic?
 
Maybe if the Upper Canadian Rebellion combined somehow with the Lower Canadian Rebellion and Patriot War?

The main thing I think to succeed would be a unifying cause. The question though is what if Canada becomes a republic.

Does Quebec stay with the rest of Canada for security reasons or go their own way?

I could see Jackson in the US wholeheartedly endorsing the new country as he has no love for the English or the American merchants who deal with them.

Does the world then become Old Versus New with proxy wars across Asia and Africa until the First World War breaks out?

Perhaps because a nation in the Americas defaults on its European loans and the offended nation sends troops to sort the situation out.

America yells "Monroe Doctrine!" and hurries to defend it's New World Brethren against the Empires.

The stand off leads to war.

The question being does Europe do this early enough that they can win?

Do all the countries involved stay onside or can some be swayed to betray their neighbors?
 

Redcoat

Banned
Maybe if the Upper Canadian Rebellion combined somehow with the Lower Canadian Rebellion and Patriot War?

The main thing I think to succeed would be a unifying cause. The question though is what if Canada becomes a republic.

Does Quebec stay with the rest of Canada for security reasons or go their own way?

I could see Jackson in the US wholeheartedly endorsing the new country as he has no love for the English or the American merchants who deal with them.

Does the world then become Old Versus New with proxy wars across Asia and Africa until the First World War breaks out?

Perhaps because a nation in the Americas defaults on its European loans and the offended nation sends troops to sort the situation out.

America yells "Monroe Doctrine!" and hurries to defend it's New World Brethren against the Empires.

The stand off leads to war.

The question being does Europe do this early enough that they can win?

Do all the countries involved stay onside or can some be swayed to betray their neighbors?
I'm not exactly learned on this topic. I'm wondering what the best case scenario here is
 
Maybe if the Upper Canadian Rebellion combined somehow with the Lower Canadian Rebellion and Patriot War?

The main thing I think to succeed would be a unifying cause. The question though is what if Canada becomes a republic.

Does Quebec stay with the rest of Canada for security reasons or go their own way?

I could see Jackson in the US wholeheartedly endorsing the new country as he has no love for the English or the American merchants who deal with them.

Does the world then become Old Versus New with proxy wars across Asia and Africa until the First World War breaks out?

Perhaps because a nation in the Americas defaults on its European loans and the offended nation sends troops to sort the situation out.

America yells "Monroe Doctrine!" and hurries to defend it's New World Brethren against the Empires.

The stand off leads to war.

The question being does Europe do this early enough that they can win?

Do all the countries involved stay onside or can some be swayed to betray their neighbors?
I really don’t see it becoming new world vs old. The old world was just so much stronger, and the only great power in America was the US. Maybe Canada could do well, but it’s umlikely IMO, it’s much smaller in population, and half of it is Nunavut. Besides, ask Paraguay how well the America’s got along.
 
Not possible. The Upper Canada "Rebellion" was actually a riot, of which there were many in the Canadas in this period. It was really the result of the Chartist-like early demands of the Upper Canada reformers not being met that it eventually radicalized, and ultimately some of their demands were met after the failure of the rebellion. The idea of Mackenzie's earlier demands being met is a far more plausible one.
 
Why in the world would anyone consider the United States to be a Great Power at this time?

Well, Victoria 2 certainly considers them a Great Power at the time. :D

In all seriousness, there's a difference between just being a Great Power and being near the top of the list. The US had already managed to project its influence worldwide, as can be seen by the multiple foreign expeditions to the Barbary States in decades prior, the establishment of a treaty system in China along similar lines to the Anglo-French treaties established after the First Opium War, and so forth. So, while certainly not the greatest of powers, they did have quite a bit of influence worldwide at the time. I can't give you a quote either, but I'm rather certain that by the 1830s they had one of the largest merchant marines, not matching the UK but being close. They did not maintain a large army, but that was mainly a result of their geopolitical position which meant they didn't need one.

Though I fear this just leads into a debate on how to define what a Great Power is.

Not possible. The Upper Canada "Rebellion" was actually a riot, of which there were many in the Canadas in this period. It was really the result of the Chartist-like early demands of the Upper Canada reformers not being met that it eventually radicalized, and ultimately some of their demands were met after the failure of the rebellion. The idea of Mackenzie's earlier demands being met is a far more plausible one.

Roughly my impression, though I wouldn't quite call it a riot myself, but it was very definitely a fairly minor event all around. As such, I wouldn't expect the rebellion as it happened OTL to have any chance at all of succeeding.

I would never say that some alternate rebellion couldn't succeed, but it'd take some rather major PoDs. Perhaps the initial land grants in Upper Canada were delayed, meaning that the province remains relatively undersettled. Eventually, in order to fortify the frontier in the face of American settlement elsewhere, they must start issuing land grants. And, as in OTL, the settlers coming across would be majority American. But, as it is later in time, the settlers, having lived in America longer, are more detached from the former monarchical government and, in the end, more pro-republican than OTL. (though, this possibly diverts the War of 1812, perhaps averting it altogether).

Then you'd have to have greater resistance internally for reform movements to have a chance to spread. an alt-Chartist movement could be more heavily repressed. Without the greater sense of Loyalist Canadian identity brought about by the War of 1812, a greater internal republican conscious, and combined with greater repression of the reform movement, and you could see a full-blown rebellion breaking out.

Combine that with a US that was never damaged so heavily in the War of 1812... Well, you might get more active support.

Though, I would find that this all happening very.... unlikely. And it would affect the rest of the timeline drastically.
 
Without the greater sense of Loyalist Canadian identity brought about by the War of 1812,

Without the War of 1812, the Family Compact oligarchy which controlled the politics of Upper Canada wouldn’t exist. Therefore, the peaceful reforms whose rejection led to the Upper Canada Rebellion would likely pass peacefully (though likely not all of them). This makes rebellion less, not more, likely.
 
Without the War of 1812, the Family Compact oligarchy which controlled the politics of Upper Canada wouldn’t exist. Therefore, the peaceful reforms whose rejection led to the Upper Canada Rebellion would likely pass peacefully (though likely not all of them). This makes rebellion less, not more, likely.

I gotcha. I'm not that well versed on the aftermath of the war, especially on the Canadian side aside from generalities, but was just trying to figure out some combination that might have caused it. I wouldn't say that the whole concept of the OP is impossible, but a successful rebellion would be nothing like the one that occurred OTL.
 
Without the War of 1812, the Family Compact oligarchy which controlled the politics of Upper Canada wouldn’t exist. Therefore, the peaceful reforms whose rejection led to the Upper Canada Rebellion would likely pass peacefully (though likely not all of them). This makes rebellion less, not more, likely.
That's not necessarily true. The compact certainly became ascendent after the war, but they already existed to some extent and we're already beginning to pull the levers of government.
 
I recently found out that the grandfather of one of Canada's most famous PM's was actually a Republican who wanted to free Canada from the British Empire. Eventually, they holed out on an island near Niagara Falls for nearly a year before being defeated. What if they succeeded in declaring a republic?
The main thrust of the Upper Canada Rebellion was a couple hundred dozen drunk men making a lot of noise as they went down the street only to high tail it back to the tavern as soon as they met appreciable resistance, the idea of it succeeding is... strange.
 
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